Regulation of South African agriculture : performance of agricultural marketing boards

Bibliography: p. 207-217.The object of this thesis is to examine the policies of South African agricultural marketing boards, both as separate entities and within the broader context of South African agricultural policy. Stabilisation and subsidisation are examined from a theoretical standpoint and the analysis supported with empirical evidence. The possibility of a centralised policy of price control is considered and a technique suggested whereby such a policy might be implemented. It is suggested, however,· that market uncertainty and the vast amount of information necessary make such an ambitious programme of market control unworkable in practice. The policies followed by some of the major marketing boards are examined. Three possibilities are identified: i) Revenue maximisation ii) Revenue stabilisation iii) Price/quantity stabilisation In view 6f the wide differences between the boards in respect of type of product handled and export possibilities, it is to be expected that they will follow divergent policies. The evidence presented suggests, however, that the boards have not used their monopoly powers in the manner predicted by conventional economic theory. In the case of several of the boards, price policy seems to have been neutral. The reason for this disparity between theory and empirical obsel'.lvat:ion is discussed. The behaviour of South African agricultural marketing boards is related to evidence on regulatory authorities in the United States. It is suggested that close parallels exist. Due to different property rjghts arrangements, the conventional monopoly profit maximisation mode.I is inapplicable. Instead, marketing boards follow a variety of other policies. Whilst the objectives of the marketing boards may not always be clear, it can be concluded that in certain significant cases, the results have been little different from those generated by the free market. It is stressed, however, that marketing boards are political rather than economic organisations and political constraints are likely to be overriding. This view is further confirmed by an examination of agricultural policy over the last fifty years. It is argued that policy has been dictated by political reality rather than economic rationality. The role of the economist has been to offer evidence in support of predetermined policies

Teollisuuden tuottajahintaindeksin ennustaminen suuriulotteisen aineiston avulla

Kansantalouden nykyistä ja tulevaa tilaa koskevan ajankohtaisen tiedon tuottaminen on tärkeää käytännön talouspolitiikan näkökulmasta: politiikkatoimien toimeenpanon ja niiden vaikutusten ilmenemisen välillä on tyypillisesti merkittäviä viiveitä, mikä luo tarpeen ennakoida kokonaistaloudellisten suureiden kehitystä. Tuottajahintaindeksi on yksi tällainen makrotaloudellinen suure: tuottajahintaindeksien avulla pyritään seuraamaan kansantaloudessa tuotettujen hyödykkeiden yleisen hintatason muutoksia tuottajien näkökulmasta, mikä tekee niistä varteenotettavan inflaatiopaineen ja suhdanneolojen indikaattorin. Tämän tutkielman pääasiallisena tavoitteena on selvittää mahdollisuuksia kotimaisen teollisuuden tuottajahintaindeksin luotettavaan ennustamiseen lyhyellä aikavälillä hyödyntäen suurta ulkoisten ennustavien muuttujien joukkoa. Ennustavien muuttujien lukumäärän kasvattaminen altistaa tavanomaiset ennustamismenetelmät epätarkkuuksille ja tekee niiden soveltamisen suoranaisen mahdottomaksi, kun muuttujien määrä ylittää mallin estimoimiseen käytettävissä olevien havaintojen lukumäärän. Ratkaisuksi tähän ongelmaan on ehdotettu lukuisia vaihtoehtoisia menetelmiä. Tutkielma tarjoaa laajan yleiskatsauksen näihin menetelmiin sekä muihin makrotaloudellisten muuttujien ennustamisen kannalta oleellisiin näkökohtiin. Koska yksikään vaihtoehtoisista menetelmistä ei ole osoittautunut käytännön sovelluksissa yksiselitteisesti muita paremmaksi, tutkielman empiiriseen osuuteen on valittu sovellettavaksi menetelmiä, jotka edustavat kahta keskenään erityyppistä lähestymistapaa suuriulotteiseen ennustamiseen: dynaamisia faktorimalleja ja regularisoituja regressioita. Dynaamisten faktorimallien vaikuttavuus perustuu oletukseen, jonka mukaan suuriulotteisen aineiston sisältämä oleellinen informaatio voidaan tiivistää huomattavasti pienempään joukkoon taustalla vaikuttavia muuttujia, faktoreita, joiden estimaatteja voidaan käyttää edelleen ennustamiseen. Regularisoitujen regressioiden tarjoama ratkaisu taas perustuu ennusteeseen liittyvän harhan ja varianssin tasapainottamiseen. Laajempaan regularisoitujen regressioiden luokkaan kuuluvista menetelmistä tutkielmassa on käytössä neljä eri muunnosta: ridge, lasso, elastinen verkko ja adaptiivinen lasso. Menetelmien empiiristä suorituskykyä arvioidaan toteuttamalla simuloitu otoksen ulkopuolinen ennustekoe, jossa kohdemuuttujalle estimoidaan historiallisen aineiston avulla sarja peräkkäisiä ennusteita verrattavaksi vastaavan ajanjakson toteutuneisiin arvoihin. Koejärjestelyn tavoitteena on tuottaa edustavaa tietoa ennustemallien tarkkuudesta jäljittelemällä tosiaikaisen ennustamisen olosuhteita: kunkin ennusteen tuottamiseksi hyödynnetään ainoastaan informaatiota, joka olisi ollut käytettävissä ennusteen laadinta-ajankohtana. Kokeessa käytettävien ennustavien muuttujien joukko koostuu eri lähteistä kerättyjen taloudellisten muuttujien kuukausittaisista aikasarjoista. Ennustekokeen perusteella suuriulotteisten mallien etu keskimääräisessä ennustetarkkuudessa yksinkertaiseen autoregressiiviseen verrokkimalliin verrattuna osoittautuu ainoastaan marginaaliseksi yhden, kahden ja kolmen kuukauden päähän tähtäävillä ennustehorisonteilla. Myöskään käytettyjen suuriulotteisten menetelmien kesken ei havaita merkittäviä eroja ennustetarkkuudessa. Suotuisampia tuloksia saavutetaan sen sijaan käyttämällä suhteellisen nopeasti saataville tulevien markkinamuuttujien havaintoja indeksin samanaikaisten arvojen ennustamiseen tulevien arvojen sijaan. Tässä tapauksessa erityisesti regularisoidut mallit esiintyvät edukseen. Tulokset antavat osviittaa, että varteenotettavimmat mahdollisuudet tuottajahintaindeksin ennakoimiseen voisivat perustua ulkoisten muuttujien julkaisuviiveeseen liittyvän edun hyödyntämiseen indeksin samanaikaisessa ennustamisessa.Producing timely information regarding the current and future state of the economy is important for the practice of economic policy: the delay between the implementation of policy measures and the emergence of their effects is typically considerable, which creates a need to anticipate developments in macroeconomic variables. The producer price index is one such variable: producer price indices are used to track changes in the general price level of goods produced within an economy from the point-of-view of producers, which makes them prominent indicators of inflationary pressures and business cycle conditions. The principal objective of this thesis is to investigate whether the Finnish Producer Price Index for Manufactured Goods could be reliably forecasted in the short run using large sets of external predictors. Increasing the number of predictors exposes standard forecasting methods to inaccuracies and makes their application outright infeasible once the number of variables exceeds the number of observations available for the estimation of the forecasting model. Various alternative methods have been proposed to counter this issue. This thesis provides a broad overview of these methods as well as other relevant issues pertaining to the forecasting macroeconomic variables. Given that no single framework has proven to dominate others in practical applications, a selection of methods has been chosen for the empirical section of this thesis. These methods represent two different approaches to high-dimensional forecasting: dynamic factor models and penalized regressions. The effectiveness of dynamic factor models is based on the assumption that relevant information contained in high-dimensional data can be summarized using only relatively few underlying factors, the estimates of which can, in turn, be used for forecasting. The solution offered by penalized regressions, on the other hand, is based on striking a balance between the bias and variance of the forecasts. Out of the broader class of penalized methods, four different variations will be utilized in this thesis: the Ridge, Lasso, Elastic Net, and Adaptive Lasso. The empirical performance of the methods will be assessed by conducting a simulated out-of-sample forecasting experiment, in which a series of consecutive forecasts are estimated for the target variable using historical data. These forecasts are, in turn, compared to their realized counterparts. The objective of the experimental arrangement is to produce representative information regarding the empirical accuracy of the respective forecasting models by emulating circumstances faced in real-time forecasting: only information that would have been available at the time is used to produce each forecast. The set of predictors used in the experiment is composed of monthly economic time series collected from a variety of sources. Based on the forecasting experiment, the benefit of the high-dimensional models in terms of average forecasting accuracy turns out to be only marginal in comparison to a univariate autoregressive benchmark at the one-, two-, and three-month horizons. Moreover, the differences among the respective high-dimensional methods are found to be insignificant. On the other hand, more favorable results are achieved by using relatively timely market-based variables to predict the concurrent rather than strictly future values of the index. In this case, the penalized models perform particularly well. The results indicate that leveraging the advantage in publication lag enjoyed by external predictors for the purpose of contemporaneous prediction, or nowcasting, could represent the most potential for predicting the producer price index

Better predictions when models are wrong or underspecified

Many statistical methods rely on models of reality in order to learn from data and to make predictions about future data. By necessity, these models usually do not match reality exactly, but are either wrong (none of the hypotheses in the model provides an accurate description of reality) or underspecified (the hypotheses in the model describe only part of the data). In this thesis, we discuss three scenarios involving models that are wrong or underspecified. In each case, we find that standard statistical methods may fail, sometimes dramatically, and present different methods that continue to perform well even if the models are wrong or underspecified. The first two of these scenarios involve regression problems and investigate AIC (Akaike's Information Criterion) and Bayesian statistics. The third scenario has the famous Monty Hall problem as a special case, and considers the question how we can update our belief about an unknown outcome given new evidence when the precise relation between outcome and evidence is unknown.UBL - phd migration 201

National and regional assessments of crop yield trends and relative production efficiency : Theme 5.1. Land use change, productivity and diversification

National and regional assessment in Australia of relative production (yield) efficiency for wheat and other cereals providing estimates of biological production potential based on seasonal climatic conditions, compared with actual production values for selected historical dates between 1982 and 2000

Economic Analysis of Groundnut Production in Nigeria: Supply Response and Policy Considerations

Agricultural Economic

Analysis of fruit and vegetable supply, demand, diet quality and nutrition in Uzbekistan

In Uzbekistan, per capita national supply of fruit and vegetables exceeds the daily recommended amount of 400 grams by more than two times. Nevertheless, individual-level intakes remain inadequate due to the strong seasonal pattern, which may lead to health and nutrition problems. Thus, this thesis identifies challenges and drivers of fruit and vegetable production, as well as determinants and patterns of fruit and vegetable consumption. In addition, this study aims to analyze diet quality via the dietary diversity concept and eventually aid in improving nutritional outcomes of the Uzbek population. The work is motivated by the need to provide evidence-based research findings to the national decision-makers in the areas of agriculture, nutrition, and health, thereby supporting them in developing appropriate policies. This study’s focus lies in Tashkent province of Uzbekistan. All analyses are based on the primary data purposely collected in the research area among various target groups. Functional analysis of supply chain showed that given the state-controlled nature of the horticultural sector and market imperfections, horticultural growers have low flexibility in producing and marketing. Based on the 2014 Fruit and vegetable production survey (N=100), the results of the Cobb-Douglas agricultural production function confirm the predominant role of labor, capital and land quality to horticultural output growth in Uzbekistan. According to the panel estimation, using the 2014 & 2015 Food consumption survey (N=931), individual-level fruit and vegetable intake rises with increasing income, better food and nutrition knowledge and bigger household size, while it falls with increasing age and market prices. The effects of prices and income were found to be stronger for infants compared to other age groups. While high income elasticity of demand is observed in children for selected nutrients derived from fruit and vegetable consumption, food knowledge positively affects nutrient intake for the whole population. Relatively high consumption of fruit and vegetables in absolute terms in summer can be considered as the reason for adequate vitamin A, vitamin C and iron intakes. The Uzbek diet consists of energy-dense food and lacks fruit and vegetables, especially in winter, and there is a low dietary diversity with the clear seasonal pattern. In neither of the seasons, are much vitamin-A-rich dark green leafy vegetables consumed. Poisson regression models showed that in Uzbek children (except infants) and adults, socioeconomic status was found to positively affect dietary diversity. Age increases dietary diversity for all population groups, except for adult men. The positive association between food knowledge and dietary diversity, found in adults, suggests the importance of raising awareness on healthy diet. Home availability of fruit and vegetables increases dietary diversity in children, which is confirmed by the positive association between rural dummy and diet diversity. Finally, the tabular analysis showed that a diversified diet is inversely associated with weight gain and hypertension in Uzbek adults, while for children there was a positive correlation between dietary diversity and height-for-age z-score. Among the economic levers, there is a need for a more liberalized trade policy, improved access to finance, the abandonment of the state production plan system as well as providing incentives for low income families. At the disposal of the Government, social levers should include the development of agricultural professional training systems and population-based public campaigns. While less labor intensive agricultural innovations are required, it is also necessary to consider policies, which aim at smoothing seasonality in horticultural supply, such as finding alternative ways to provision a stable energy supply in greenhouses, extending the duration of harvest and reducing post-harvest losses. Special attention must be given to improving transparency and intolerance to abuse of power.Analyse der Obst- und Gemüseversorgung, Nachfrage, Lebensmittelqualität und Ernährung in Usbekistan In Usbekistan übersteigt die landesweite Versorgung mit Obst und Gemüse die empfohlene Tagesmenge von 400 Gramm pro Kopf mehr als zweifach. Dennoch bleibt die individuelle Nahrungs-Aufnahme wegen starker saisonaler Schwankungen unzureichend, was zu Ernährungsproblemen führt. Grundlage dieser Arbeit ist die Identifikation von Herausforderungen und Haupttriebkräften der Obst- und Gemüseproduktion sowie Determinanten und Muster des Obst- und Gemüsekonsums. Darüber hinaus zielt sie auf die Verbesserung der Ernährungsqualität anhand des Konzepts einer vielfältigen Ernährung und damit des Ernährungszustands der usbekischen Bevölkerung. Motivation der Arbeit ist die Notwendigkeit, nationalen Entscheidungsträgern in den Bereichen Landwirtschaft, Ernährung und Gesundheit evidenzbasierte Forschungsergebnisse zu liefern und sie bei der Entwicklung geeigneter Politikansätze zu unterstützen. Der Schwerpunkt dieser Studie liegt auf der Provinz Taschkent in Usbekistan. Alle Analysen basieren auf Primärdaten, die gezielt im Forschungsgebiet unter verschiedenen Zielgruppen gesammelt wurden. Die Funktionsanalyse der Wertschöpfungskette von Obst und Gemüse zeigt, dass die Gartenbaubetriebe aufgrund staatlicher Kontrollen und Marktproblemen bei der Herstellung und Vermarktung ihrer Produktion wenig flexibel sind. Die Ergebnisse der Umfrage unter Obst- und Gemüseerzeugern von 2014 (N=100) auf Basis der landwirtschaftlichen Cobb-Douglas-Produktionsfunktion bestätigen die vorherrschende Rolle der Arbeits-, Kapital- und Landqualität für das Wachstum des Gartenbaus in Usbekistan. Gemäß der Panel-Schätzung auf Basis der Nahrungsmittelverbrauchsumfrage (N=931) 2014 & 2015 steigt die individuelle Aufnahme von Obst und Gemüse mit höherem Einkommen, besserem Lebensmittel- und Ernährungswissen und steigender Haushaltsgröße, während sie mit zunehmendem Alter und steigenden Marktpreisen sinkt. Usbekische Ernährung besteht aus energiereichen Lebensmitteln und weist einen Mangel an Obst und Gemüse auf, vor allem im Winter. Vitamin-A-reiches dunkelgrünes Blattgemüse wird kaum verzehrt. Das Poisson-Regressionsmodell demonstriert positive Einflüsse des sozioökonomischen Status bei usbekischen Kindern und Erwachsenen. Alter erhöht die Ernährungsdiversität für alle Bevölkerungsgruppen, außer für erwachsene Männer. Die positive Assoziation zwischen Ernährungswissen und –vielfalt bei Erwachsenen zeigt die Bedeutung der Sensibilisierung für eine gesunde Ernährung. Schließlich zeigt die tabellarische Analyse, dass abwechslungsreiche Ernährung in umgekehrtem Zusammenhang mit Gewichtszunahme und Hypertonie bei usbekischen Erwachsenen steht. Andererseits gab es für Kinder eine positive Korrelation zwischen der diätetischen Vielfalt und dem Körpergröße-zu-Alter z-Score. Auf der wirtschaftspolitischen Ebene besteht die Notwendigkeit einer Liberalisierung der Handelspolitik und eines verbesserten Zugangs zur Finanzierung; ferner sind die Abschaffung des staatlichen Produktionsplansystems und Anreize für Familien mit niedrigem Einkommen vordringlich. Der Regierung sollten soziale Hebel zur Entwicklung von landwirtschaftlichen Berufsbildungssystemen und bevölkerungsbezogenen öffentlichen Kampagnen zur Verfügung stehen. Notwendig sind Maßnahmen zur Milderung der saisonale Abhängigkeit in der gartenbaulichen Versorgung zu mildern. Besondere Aufmerksamkeit muss der Stärkung der Transparenz und der Inakzeptanz gegenüber dem Amtsmissbrauch gewidmet werden

The land use change impact of biofuels consumed in the EU: Quantification of area and greenhouse gas impacts

Biofuels are promoted as an option to reduce climate emissions from the transport sector. As most biofuels are currently produced from land based crops, there is a concern that the increased consumption of biofuels requires agricultural expansion at a global scale, leading to additional carbon emissions. This effect is called Indirect Land Use Change, or ILUC. The EU Renewable Energy Directive (2009/28/EC) directed the European Commission to develop a methodology to account for the ILUC effect. The current study serves to provide new insights to the European Commission and other stakeholders about these indirect carbon and land impacts from biofuels consumed in the EU, with more details on production processes and representation of individual feedstocks than was done before. ILUC cannot be observed or measured in reality, because it is entangled with a large number of other changes in agricultural markets at both global and local levels. The effect can only be estimated through the use of models. The current study is part of a continuous effort to improve the understanding and representation of ILUC

Socio-Economic Evaluation of the Potential for Australian Tree Species in the Philippines

Crop Production/Industries,

Appropriate Wisdom, Technology, and Management toward Environmental Sustainability for Development

The protection and maintenance of environmental resources for future generations require responsible interaction between humans and the environment in order to avoid wasting natural resources. According to an ancient Native American proverb, “We do not inherit the Earth from our ancestors; we borrow it from our children.” This indigenous wisdom has the potential to play a significant role in defining environmental sustainability. Recent technological advances could sustain humankind and allow for comfortable living. However, not all of these advancements have the potential to protect the environment for future generations. Developing societies and maintaining the sustainability of the ecosystem require appropriate wisdom, technology, and management collaboration. This book is a collection of 19 important articles (15 research articles, 3 review papers, and 1 editorial) that were published in the Special Issue of the journal Sustainability entitled “Appropriate Wisdom, Technology, and Management toward Environmental Sustainability for Development” during 2021-2022.addresses the policymakers and decision-makers who are willing to develop societies that practice environmental sustainability, by collecting the most recent contributions on the appropriate wisdom, technology, and management regarding the different aspects of a community that can retain environmental sustainability

Monetary valuation of virtual water use in global supply chains

The aim of this thesis has been to develop a new method that can be used to place a monetary figure, reflecting full economic and societal value, on the volumes of fresh water that are consumed and degraded in agri-food product supply chains. Informed by the twin concepts of Total Economic Value and Ecosystem Services, a detailed review of the water valuation literature, which had been conducted within a welfare economic framework, suggested that the current evidence base is limited in terms of the number, type, coverage and robustness of existing estimates. Nonetheless, a method is developed which looks to provide an estimate of the direct use value of water in three agri-food supply chain case studies which are underpinned by raw materials that either significantly impact, or impacted by, global freshwater resources (wheat, tea and potatoes). These case studies are used to illustrate the merit of such an approach in terms of assessing the relative scarcity or impact of water use along globally disparate supply chains, and as a means promoting the trade-offs associated with productive and allocative efficiency gains. Indeed, it is argued that the principal contribution of the thesis is that it highlights the potential for the academic community to enable a more comprehensive approach to the valuation of virtual water flows. Such an approach would supplement the volumetric focus of water footprint assessment, and provide a more useful metric for business users than the current focus on the stress weighted water footprint