From participation to dropout

The academic e-learning practice has to deal with various participation patterns and types of online learners with different support needs. The online instructors are challenged to recognize these and react accordingly. Among the participation patterns, special attention is requested by dropouts, which can perturbate online collaboration. Therefore we are in search of a method of early identification of participation patterns and prediction of dropouts. To do this, we use a quantitative view of participation that takes into account only observable variables. On this background we identify in a field study the participation indicators that are relevant for the course completion, i.e. produce significant differences between the completion and dropout sub-groups. Further we identify through cluster analysis four participation patterns with different support needs. One of them is the dropout cluster that could be predicted with an accuracy of nearly 80%. As a practical consequence, this study recommends a simple, easy-to-implement prediction method for dropouts, which can improve online teaching. As a theoretical consequence, we underline the role of the course didactics for the definition of participation, and call for refining previous attrition models

Your click decides your fate: Inferring Information Processing and Attrition Behavior from MOOC Video Clickstream Interactions

In this work, we explore video lecture interaction in Massive Open Online Courses (MOOCs), which is central to student learning experience on these educational platforms. As a research contribution, we operationalize video lecture clickstreams of students into cognitively plausible higher level behaviors, and construct a quantitative information processing index, which can aid instructors to better understand MOOC hurdles and reason about unsatisfactory learning outcomes. Our results illustrate how such a metric inspired by cognitive psychology can help answer critical questions regarding students' engagement, their future click interactions and participation trajectories that lead to in-video & course dropouts. Implications for research and practice are discusse

Dropout Model Evaluation in MOOCs

The field of learning analytics needs to adopt a more rigorous approach for predictive model evaluation that matches the complex practice of model-building. In this work, we present a procedure to statistically test hypotheses about model performance which goes beyond the state-of-the-practice in the community to analyze both algorithms and feature extraction methods from raw data. We apply this method to a series of algorithms and feature sets derived from a large sample of Massive Open Online Courses (MOOCs). While a complete comparison of all potential modeling approaches is beyond the scope of this paper, we show that this approach reveals a large gap in dropout prediction performance between forum-, assignment-, and clickstream-based feature extraction methods, where the latter is significantly better than the former two, which are in turn indistinguishable from one another. This work has methodological implications for evaluating predictive or AI-based models of student success, and practical implications for the design and targeting of at-risk student models and interventions

School-leavers' Transition to Tertiary Study: a Literature Review.

The theoretical and empirical literature relating to factors and problems in the transition of students from secondary to tertiary level education is reviewed here. Studies on persistence and attrition, and on the analysis and prediction of academic performance of students, generally and in particular discipline areas, are included.Transition to university; student performance.

Comprendiendo el potencial y los desafíos del Big Data en las escuelas y la educación

In recent years, the world has experienced a huge revolution centered around the gathering and application of big data in various fields. This has affected many aspects of our daily life, including government, manufacturing, commerce, health, communication, entertainment, and many more. So far, education has benefited only a little from the big data revolution. In this article, we review the potential of big data in the context of education systems. Such data may include log files drawn from online learning environments, messages on online discussion forums, answers to open-ended questions, grades on various tasks, demographic and administrative information, speech, handwritten notes, illustrations, gestures and movements, neurophysiologic signals, eye movements, and many more. Analyzing this data, it is possible to calculate a wide range of measurements of the learning process and to support various educational stakeholders with informed decision-making. We offer a framework for better understanding of how big data can be used in education. The framework comprises several elements that need to be addressed in this context: defining the data; formulating data-collecting and storage apparatuses; data analysis and the application of analysis products. We further review some key opportunities and some important challenges of using big data in educationEn los últimos años, el mundo ha experimentado una gran revolución centrada en la recopilación y aplicación de big data en varios campos. Esto ha afectado muchos aspectos de nuestra vida diaria, incluidos el gobierno, la manufactura, el comercio, la salud, la comunicación, el entretenimiento y muchos más. Hasta ahora, la educación se ha beneficiado muy poco de la revolución del big data. En este artículo revisamos el potencial de los macrodatos en el contexto de los sistemas educativos. Dichos datos pueden incluir archivos de registro extraídos de entornos de aprendizaje en línea, mensajes en foros de discusión en línea, respuestas a preguntas abiertas, calificaciones en diversas tareas, información demográfica y administrativa, discurso, notas escritas a mano, ilustraciones, gestos y movimientos, señales neurofisiológicas, movimientos oculares y muchos más. Analizando estos datos es posible calcular una amplia gama de mediciones del proceso de aprendizaje y apoyar a diversos interesados educativos con una toma de decisiones informada. Ofrecemos un marco para una mejor comprensión de cómo se puede utilizar el big data en la educación. El marco comprende varios elementos que deben abordarse en este contexto: definición de los datos; formulación de aparatos de recolección y almacenamiento de datos; análisis de datos y aplicación de productos de análisis. Además, revisamos algunas oportunidades clave y algunos desafíos importantes del uso de big data en la educació