Improving deep decarbonization modelling capacity for developed and developing country contexts

Energy models are essential for the development of national or regional deep decarbonization pathways (DDPs), providing the necessary analytical framework to systematically explore the system transitions that are required. However, this is challenging due to the long time horizon, the numerous data requirements and the need for transparent, credible approaches that can provide insights into complex transitions. This article explores how this challenge has been met to date, based on a review of the literature and the experiences of practitioners, drawing in particular on the Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project (DDPP), a collaborative effort by 16 national modelling teams. The article finds that there are a range of modelling approaches that have been used across different country contexts, chosen for different reasons, with recognized strengths and weaknesses. The key motivations for use of a given approach include being fit-for-purpose, having in-country capacity and the intertwined goals of transparency, communicability and policy credibility. From the review, a conceptual decision framework for DDP analysis is proposed. This three step process incorporates policy priorities, national characteristics and the model-agnostic principles that drive model choices, considering the needs and capabilities of developed and developing countries, and subject to data and analytical practicalities. Finally an agenda for the further development of modelling approaches is proposed, which is vital for strengthening capacity. These include a focus on model linking, incorporating behaviour and policy impacts, the flexibility to handle distinctive energy systems, incorporating wider environmental constraints and the development of entry-level tools. The latter three are critical for application in developing countries. Policy relevance Following the Paris Agreement, it is essential that modelling approaches are available to enable governments to plan how to decarbonize their economies in the long term. This article takes stock of current practices, identifies the strengths and weaknesses of existing approaches and proposes how capacity can be strengthened. It also provides some practical guidance on the process of choosing modelling approaches, given national priorities and circumstances. This is particularly relevant as countries revisit their Nationally Determined Contributions to meet the global objective of remaining well below a 2°C average global temperature increase

Air Quality Integrated Assessment: A European Perspective

air quality; air pollution; environmental analysi

Essays in Environmental Cost-Benefit Analysis

Tässä tutkielmassa sovelletaan kustannushyötyanalyysiä (KHA) ympäristöön liittyviin kysymyksiin. Tulokset vievät eteenpäin sekä KHA-analyysin teoreettista kirjallisuutta että käytännön sovellettavuutta ympäristökysymyksiin. Työ koostuu neljästä artikkelista, joissa on kolme poikkileikkaavaa teemaa: 1) tulojakauma-kysymykset, 2) ilmastonmuutokseen sopeutuminen ja 3) urbaanit ekosysteemipalvelut. Artikkeli I pääkontribuutio kirjallisuuteen on i) luoda yhteys tulovaikutuksen ja tulojakauma-kysymyksen välille, ii) vertailla eri painotustapoja teoreettisesti ja empiirisesti, iii) osoittaa, miten painotukset voidaan käytännössä sisällyttää KHA:n, iv) näyttää tulosten herkkyys paitsi siihen, painotetaanko hyötyjä vai ei, myös siihen, mikä painotustapa valitaan ja mitä maantieteellistä tarkkuutta käytetään. Artikkeli II analysoi esimerkin avulla, onko liiallinen panostaminen ilmastonmuutokseen sopeutumiseen ja onnettomuusriskien vähentämiseen todellinen huolenaihe. Liiallinen panostus määritellään taloudellisen tehokkuuden avulla. Tulokset myötävaikuttavat ilmastonmuutokseen liittyvän taloustieteen teoreettiseen ja käytännön kirjallisuuteen. Artikkelissa III arvioimme, miten sääpalveluihin liittyvät innovaatiot voivat vähentää yhteiskunnan sääherkkyyttä ja vähentää ilmastonmuutoksen tuomia negatiivisia vaikutuksia tieliikenteelle. Artikkelissa näytetään, miten sääpalveluiden jakeluun ja käytettävyyteen liittyvät innovaatiot ovat hyödyllisiä ilmastonmuutokseen sopeutumiselle. Tulokset myötävaikuttavat ilmastonmuutokseen liittyvän taloustieteen käytännön kirjallisuuteen. Artikkeli IV käsittelee viherkattojen kustannushyötyanalyysiä. Tämän tutkimuksen päätavoitteet ovat: i) mahdollistaa tulosten siirtäminen toiselta urbaanilta alueelta toiselle antamalla mahdollisimman tarkat tiedot tutkimuksessa käytetyistä menetelmistä ja parametreista, ii) sisällyttää viherkattojen maisemahyödyt yhtenä hyötylajina mukaan. Tulokset myötävaikuttavat sekä ekosysteemipalveluihin liittyvän KHA:n käytännön kirjallisuuteen että ilmastonmuutokseen liittyvän taloustieteen käytännön kirjallisuuteen.This thesis applies cost-benefit analysis (CBA) to certain environmental questions and through its results contributes to both the theoretical literature on CBA in environmental economics and practical issues in the application of CBA to environmental problems. The work comprises an introduction and four articles, which address three common thematic areas: 1) distributional issues, 2) climate change adaptation, and 3) urban ecosystem services. Article I contributes to the literature through analyses that i) provide a connection between the income effect and distributional issues; ii) compare weighting schemes both theoretically and empirically; iii) show how weights could be incorporated into a CBA in practice; and iv) demonstrate that results are sensitive not only to whether weights are applied, but also to the choice of the inequality parameter and spatial resolution. Article II analyzes whether over-investment in disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation is a legitimate economic concern and examines how the public reacts to major infrastructure investments. The results constitute a contribution to both the theoretical and empirical literature on the economics of climate change adaptation. Article III evaluates how potential innovations in weather services can reduce weather sensitivity and, consequently, decrease the negative effects of climate change on transport, particularly in the road transport sector. The article illustrates how innovations in the provision and use of weather and climate information can be beneficial for adapting to the changing climate and contributes to the empirical literature on the economics of climate change adaptation. Article IV presents a CBA of a relatively novel feature in the urban green portfolio: green roofs. The specific objectives of the research are i) to facilitate benefit-transfer of ecosystem services from one urban area to another by providing detailed information on valuation methods and the role of different assumptions and parameter values and ii) to include scenic values as a benefit item based on a formal and trackable analysis rather than on a guess. The article contributes to the empirical literature related to both the cost-benefit analysis of urban ecosystem services and the economics of climate change adaptation

EC4MACS - An integrated assessment toolbox of well-established modeling tools to explore the synergies and interactions between climate change, air quality and other policy objectives

EC4MACS (European Consortium for Modelling of Air Pollution and Climate Strategies establishes a suite of modelling tools for a comprehensive integrated assessment of the effectiveness of emission control strategies for air pollutants and greenhouse gases. This assessment brought together expert knowledge in the fields of energy, transport, agriculture, forestry, land use, atmospheric dispersion, health and vegetation impacts, and it developed a coherent outlook into the future options to reduce atmospheric pollution in Europe. In this paper, first we introduce background to the EC4MACS framework, which links well-established sectoral models of the most relevant policy areas. In this context, an ETL package is used to gather extracted information from multiple model data sources. The integrated data are loaded into the GAINS (Greenhouse gas-Air pollution Interactions and Synergies) Data Warehouse. Afterwards, a web service based toolbox is developed to publish EC4MACS key data, which are represented in this paper in terms of case studies

Shipping and sustainability liquefied natural gas as an alternative fuel : evidence from Portugal

O transporte marítimo é um elo vital do comércio mundial graças à sua capacidade, confiabilidade e relação custo-eficácia no transporte de grande quantidade de bens; nenhum outro modo de transporte consegue alcançar tais economias de escala. Mas este argumento subestima os custos reais. A frota marítima internacional, excluindo barcos de pesca e navios militares, produziu em 2012 cerca de 796 milhões de toneladas (Mt) de dióxido de carbono (CO2) e 816 Mt de dióxido de carbono equivalente (CO2e) de gases de efeito de estufa (GEE) combinando dióxido de carbono (CO2), metano (CH4) e óxido nitroso (N2O) correspondendo a cerca de 3,1% das emissões globais (IMO-International Maritime Organization, 2015; Rahman e Mashud, 2015) e é um dos setores de mais rápido crescimento em termos de emissões de GEE (Gilbert, Bows e Starkey, 2010; Bows-Larkin, 2014) previstas aumentar entre 102% a 193% em relação aos níveis de 2000 até 2050 (Bows-Larkin, 2014), crescendo a uma taxa mais elevada do que a taxa média de todos os outros sectores, com excepção da aviação. Como as emissões marítimas são produzidas, em grande parte, em mar aberto e por navios registados em países de bandeira de conveniência, foram excluídas dos compromissos nacionais no âmbito do Protocolo de Quioto de 1997, que cedeu o controlo à IMO o organismo da ONU responsável pelo sector1. De acordo com o Maritime Knowledge Centre da IMO, a frota mercante mundial de navios com pelo menos 100 gross tonnage (tonelagem bruta) era composta por 93.161 navios no final do ano de 2016. Espera-se que um número crescente de navios mercantes entre em operação nas próximas décadas, nomeadamente navios porta-contentores de grande capacidade, navios metaneiros e outros adstritos a actividades diversificadas como produção, armazenamento e descarga de gás natural e de petróleo (em inglês Floating Production Storage and Offloading - FPSOs). Os combustíveis marítimos tradicionais também produzem emissões de óxido de enxofre (SOx), óxidos de azoto (NOx) e micropartículas e o impacto sobre o ambiente dos poluentes primários e secundários resultantes da combustão do fuelóleo pesado (HFO) tem contribui para a acidificação, eutrofização e formação de ozono (O3) fotoquímico (Bengtsson, 2011). Um efeito particularmente pernicioso na saúde das populações expostas é a mortalidade prematura relacionada com micropartículas inaláveis associadas com o aumento do cancro de pulmão e problemas cardiorrespiratórios (Corbett et al., 2007) e, embora os efeitos nocivos mais graves sejam particularmente sentidos nas zonas costeiras e em áreas próximas das atividades portuárias, estes efeitos também ocorrem no interior dos países devido às condições predominantes dos ventos (Corbett, Fischbeck and Pandis, 1999) incluindo efeitos transfronteiriços (Nore, 2011). Em Portugal e de acordo com o World Resources Institute, as emissões de CO2 com origem nos combustíveis marítimos cresceram 24,5%, entre 2003 e 2012, em linha com o crescimento mundial (de 26,8%) no mesmo período de dez anos (World Resources Institute, 2015). Nesta tese, para efeitos de monetarização das emissões produzidas pela frota mercante nacional serão utilizados os dados do Inventário Nacional de Emissões, dados de 2014, os quais revelam que, embora o contributo do sector para o registo nacional seja mínimo – devido nomeadamente à exiguidade da frota – o potencial de danos causados não é de todo despiciente. Técnicas para aumentar a eficiência energética e tecnologias de mitigação dos efeitos nocivos - scrubbers, (depuradores) e dispositivos catalíticos - têm sido desenvolvidas e implementadas -, no entanto, embora o seu contributo para a descarbonização do sector deva ser levado em conta, estas tecnologias não correspondem à alteração pretendida do paradigma energético e podem constituir um incentivo ao business-as-usual. Por outro lado, o recurso a combustíveis com menor conteúdo de enxofre como o diesel marítimo é contraproducente uma vez que as emissões dos motores a diesel foram recentemente classificadas como cancerígenas pelo Centro Internacional de Investigação do Cancro (Oeder et al, 2015). O que isto significa é que embora o diesel corresponda ao exigido futuramente pelo Regulamento Tier III emitido pela IMO, na realidade não respeita suficientemente as preocupações com a saúde humana. De qualquer modo as refinarias não teriam provavelmente capacidade suficiente de fornecer todo o diesel necessário para abastecer a frota mundial. Por outro lado, as medidas de redução de poluentes emitidas pela IMO poderão ver seus efeitos reduzidos pelo crescimento esperado da atividade marítima nas próximas décadas e são destinadas a ser adoptadas lentamente ao longo de um largo período de tempo e mostram um progresso muito lento no contexto de evitar um aumento de temperatura superior a 2ºC acima dos níveis pré-industriais (Gilbert, 2013; Bows-Larkin, 2014), daí a necessidade urgente de investir em novas tecnologias e em novos tipos de combustíveis.The objective of this Ph.D. thesis is to provide important inputs for the decarbonisation of marine transport and climate change mitigation policies concerning liquefied natural gas (LNG) as a substitute fuel. Real-world results show efficiency gains from LNG compared with traditional fossil fuels burned on-board vessel’s engines even when equipped with mitigation technologies. Yet, this is a necessary but not a sufficient condition to LNG be elected as a substitute fuel. For a fuel switch of such order of magnitude to occur within a major end-use sector, other requirements are to be fulfilled: the government intervention in the public interest, and, to justify such policy intervention, the degree of social acceptability. This is accomplished by developing a social cost-benefit analysis (SCBA) performed at a regional basis after the assessment of the trade-off between the provision level of the good and Portuguese nationals’ disposable income had been examined. SCBA attaches money prices - a metric of everything that everyone can recognise - to as many costs and benefits as possible in order to uniformly weigh the policy objectives. As a result, these prices reflect the value a society ascribe to the paradigm change enabling the decision maker to form an opinion about the net social welfare effects. Empirically, emissions from the Portuguese merchant fleet weighted by their contribution for the National Inventory were used to quantify and monetise externalities compared with benefits from LNG as a substitute marine fuel. Benefits from the policy implementation are those related with the reduction of negative externalities. Costs are those determined from the price nationals are hypothetically willing-to-pay for. Conclusions show that benefits are largely superior to the costs, so action must be taken instead of a doing nothing scenario. Apart from the social ex-ante evaluation, this thesis also imprints the first step for developing furthermore complete studies in this aspect and it can help fill policy makers’ knowledge gap to what concerns to strategic energy options vis-à-vis sustainability stakeholders engagement. Although it addresses Portuguese particularities, this methodology should be applied elsewhere

Social cost-benefit analysis of air pollution control measures - Advancing environmental-economic assessment methods to evaluate industrial point emission sources

This book enhances economic methods for social cost-benefit analysis of air pollution control measures at point emission sources. A new and highly resolved health damage cost assessment framework is developed and applied, notably in order to evaluate the influence of site-dependent and generic methodological choices. Several of these are shown to have a major impact on resulting health damage costs with important implications for decision-making