Predicting flow reversals in chaotic natural convection using data assimilation

A simplified model of natural convection, similar to the Lorenz (1963) system, is compared to computational fluid dynamics simulations in order to test data assimilation methods and better understand the dynamics of convection. The thermosyphon is represented by a long time flow simulation, which serves as a reference "truth". Forecasts are then made using the Lorenz-like model and synchronized to noisy and limited observations of the truth using data assimilation. The resulting analysis is observed to infer dynamics absent from the model when using short assimilation windows. Furthermore, chaotic flow reversal occurrence and residency times in each rotational state are forecast using analysis data. Flow reversals have been successfully forecast in the related Lorenz system, as part of a perfect model experiment, but never in the presence of significant model error or unobserved variables. Finally, we provide new details concerning the fluid dynamical processes present in the thermosyphon during these flow reversals

Systematic comparison between the generalized Lorenz equations and DNS in the two-dimensional Rayleigh–Bénard convection

The classic Lorenz equations were originally derived from the two-dimensional Rayleigh–Bénard convection system considering an idealized case with the lowest order of harmonics. Although the low-order Lorenz equations have traditionally served as a minimal model for chaotic and intermittent atmospheric motions, even the dynamics of the two-dimensional Rayleigh–Bénard convection system is not fully represented by the Lorenz equations, and such differences have yet to be clearly identified in a systematic manner. In this paper, the convection problem is revisited through an investigation of various dynamical behaviors exhibited by a two-dimensional direct numerical simulation (DNS) and the generalized expansion of the Lorenz equations (GELE) derived by considering additional higher-order harmonics in the spectral expansions of periodic solutions. Notably, GELE allows us to understand how nonlinear interactions among high-order modes alter the dynamical features of the Lorenz equations including fixed points, chaotic attractors, and periodic solutions. It is verified that numerical solutions of the DNS can be recovered from the solutions of GELE when we consider the system with sufficiently high-order harmonics. At the lowest order, the classic Lorenz equations are recovered from GELE. Unlike in the Lorenz equations, we observe limit tori, which are the multi-dimensional analog of limit cycles, in the solutions of the DNS and GELE at high orders. Initial condition dependency in the DNS and Lorenz equations is also discussed. The Lorenz equations are a simplified nonlinear dynamical system derived from the two-dimensional Rayleigh–Bénard (RB) convection problem. They have been one of the best-known examples in chaos theory due to the peculiar bifurcation and chaos behaviors. They are often regarded as the minimal chaotic model for describing the convection system and, by extension, weather. Such an interpretation is sometimes challenged due to the simplifying restriction of considering only a few harmonics in the derivation. This study loosens this restriction by considering additional high-order harmonics and derives a system we call the generalized expansion of the Lorenz equations (GELE). GELE allows us to study how solutions transition from the classic Lorenz equations to high-order systems comparable to a two-dimensional direct numerical simulation (DNS). This study also proposes mathematical formulations for a direct comparison between the Lorenz equations, GELE, and two-dimensional DNS as the system’s order increases. This work advances our understanding of the convection system by bridging the gap between the classic model of Lorenz and a more realistic convection syste

Construction of classes of circuit-independent chaotic oscillatorsusing passive-only nonlinear devices

Two generic classes of chaotic oscillators comprising four different configurations are constructed. The proposed structures are based on the simplest possible abstract models of generic second-order RC sinusoidal oscillators that satisfy the basic condition for oscillation and the frequency of oscillation formulas. By linking these sinusoidal oscillator engines to simple passive first-order or second-order nonlinear composites, chaos is generated and the evolution of the two-dimensional sinusoidal oscillator dynamics into a higher dimensional state space is clearly recognized. We further discuss three architectures into which autonomous chaotic oscillators can be decomposed. Based on one of these architectures we classify a large number of the available chaotic oscillators and propose a novel reconstruction of the classical Chua’s circuit. The well-known Lorenz system of equations is also studied and a simplified model with equivalent dynamics, but containing no multipliers, is introduced

Construction of classes of circuit-independent chaotic oscillators using passive-only nonlinear devices

Two generic classes of chaotic oscillators comprising four different configurations are constructed. The proposed structures are based on the simplest possible abstract models of generic second-order RC sinusoidal oscillators that satisfy the basic condition for oscillation and the frequency of oscillation formulas. By linking these sinusoidal oscillator engines to simple passive first-order or second-order nonlinear composites, chaos is generated and the evolution of the two-dimensional sinusoidal oscillator dynamics into a higher dimensional state space is clearly recognized. We further discuss three architectures into which autonomous chaotic oscillators can be decomposed. Based on one of these architectures we classify a large number of the available chaotic oscillators and propose a novel reconstruction of the classical Chua's circuit. The well-known Lorenz system of equations is also studied and a simplified model with equivalent dynamics, but containing no multipliers, is introduce

The Hopf bifurcation in the Shimizu-Morioka system

Agraïments: The second author was partially supported by Program CAPES/DGU Process 8333/13-0 and by FAPESP Project 2011/13152-8We study the local Hopf bifurcations of codimension one and two which occur in the Shimizu-Morioka system. This system is a simplified model proposed for studying the dynamics of the well known Lorenz system for large Rayleigh numbers. We present an analytic study and their bifurcation diagrams of these kinds of Hopf bifurcation, showing the qualitative changes in the dynamics of its solutions for different values of the parameters

Thermodynamic analysis of snowball Earth hysteresis experiment: Efficiency, entropy production and irreversibility

We present an extensive thermodynamic analysis of a hysteresis experiment performed on a simplified yet Earth-like climate model. We slowly vary the solar constant by 20% around the present value and detect that for a large range of values of the solar constant the realization of snowball or of regular climate conditions depends on the history of the system. Using recent results on the global climate thermodynamics, we show that the two regimes feature radically different properties. The efficiency of the climate machine monotonically increases with decreasing solar constant in present climate conditions, whereas the opposite takes place in snowball conditions. Instead, entropy production is monotonically increasing with the solar constant in both branches of climate conditions, and its value is about four times larger in the warm branch than in the corresponding cold state. Finally, the degree of irreversibility of the system, measured as the fraction of excess entropy production due to irreversible heat transport processes, is much higher in the warm climate conditions, with an explosive growth in the upper range of the considered values of solar constants. Whereas in the cold climate regime a dominating role is played by changes in the meridional albedo contrast, in the warm climate regime changes in the intensity of latent heat fluxes are crucial for determining the observed properties. This substantiates the importance of addressing correctly the variations of the hydrological cycle in a changing climate. An interpretation of the climate transitions at the tipping points based upon macro-scale thermodynamic properties is also proposed. Our results support the adoption of a new generation of diagnostic tools based on the second law of thermodynamics for auditing climate models and outline a set of parametrizations to be used in conceptual and intermediate-complexity models or for the reconstruction of the past climate conditions. Copyright © 2010 Royal Meteorological Societ