Learning dynamic algorithm portfolios

Algorithm selection can be performed using a model of runtime distribution, learned during a preliminary training phase. There is a trade-off between the performance of model-based algorithm selection, and the cost of learning the model. In this paper, we treat this trade-off in the context of bandit problems. We propose a fully dynamic and online algorithm selection technique, with no separate training phase: all candidate algorithms are run in parallel, while a model incrementally learns their runtime distributions. A redundant set of time allocators uses the partially trained model to propose machine time shares for the algorithms. A bandit problem solver mixes the model-based shares with a uniform share, gradually increasing the impact of the best time allocators as the model improves. We present experiments with a set of SAT solvers on a mixed SAT-UNSAT benchmark; and with a set of solvers for the Auction Winner Determination proble

A novel dynamic asset allocation system using Feature Saliency Hidden Markov models for smart beta investing

The financial crisis of 2008 generated interest in more transparent, rules-based strategies for portfolio construction, with Smart beta strategies emerging as a trend among institutional investors. While they perform well in the long run, these strategies often suffer from severe short-term drawdown (peak-to-trough decline) with fluctuating performance across cycles. To address cyclicality and underperformance, we build a dynamic asset allocation system using Hidden Markov Models (HMMs). We test our system across multiple combinations of smart beta strategies and the resulting portfolios show an improvement in risk-adjusted returns, especially on more return oriented portfolios (up to 50$\%$ in excess of market annually). In addition, we propose a novel smart beta allocation system based on the Feature Saliency HMM (FSHMM) algorithm that performs feature selection simultaneously with the training of the HMM, to improve regime identification. We evaluate our systematic trading system with real life assets using MSCI indices; further, the results (up to 60$\%$ in excess of market annually) show model performance improvement with respect to portfolios built using full feature HMMs

Bayesian emulation for optimization in multi-step portfolio decisions

We discuss the Bayesian emulation approach to computational solution of multi-step portfolio studies in financial time series. "Bayesian emulation for decisions" involves mapping the technical structure of a decision analysis problem to that of Bayesian inference in a purely synthetic "emulating" statistical model. This provides access to standard posterior analytic, simulation and optimization methods that yield indirect solutions of the decision problem. We develop this in time series portfolio analysis using classes of economically and psychologically relevant multi-step ahead portfolio utility functions. Studies with multivariate currency, commodity and stock index time series illustrate the approach and show some of the practical utility and benefits of the Bayesian emulation methodology.Comment: 24 pages, 7 figures, 2 table

A recursive algorithm for multivariate risk measures and a set-valued Bellman's principle

A method for calculating multi-portfolio time consistent multivariate risk measures in discrete time is presented. Market models for $d$ assets with transaction costs or illiquidity and possible trading constraints are considered on a finite probability space. The set of capital requirements at each time and state is calculated recursively backwards in time along the event tree. We motivate why the proposed procedure can be seen as a set-valued Bellman's principle, that might be of independent interest within the growing field of set optimization. We give conditions under which the backwards calculation of the sets reduces to solving a sequence of linear, respectively convex vector optimization problems. Numerical examples are given and include superhedging under illiquidity, the set-valued entropic risk measure, and the multi-portfolio time consistent version of the relaxed worst case risk measure and of the set-valued average value at risk.Comment: 25 pages, 5 figure

Portfolio Methods for Optimal Planning: an Empirical Analysis

Combining the complementary strengths of several algorithms through portfolio approaches has been demonstrated to be effective in solving a wide range of AI problems. Notably, portfolio techniques have been prominently applied to suboptimal (satisficing) AI planning. Here, we consider the construction of sequential planner portfolios for (domain- independent) optimal planning. Specifically, we introduce four techniques (three of which are dynamic) for per-instance planner schedule generation using problem instance features, and investigate the usefulness of a range of static and dynamic techniques for combining planners. Our extensive experimental analysis demonstrates the benefits of using static and dynamic sequential portfolios for optimal planning, and provides insights on the most suitable conditions for their fruitful exploitation

An Enhanced Features Extractor for a Portfolio of Constraint Solvers

Recent research has shown that a single arbitrarily efficient solver can be significantly outperformed by a portfolio of possibly slower on-average solvers. The solver selection is usually done by means of (un)supervised learning techniques which exploit features extracted from the problem specification. In this paper we present an useful and flexible framework that is able to extract an extensive set of features from a Constraint (Satisfaction/Optimization) Problem defined in possibly different modeling languages: MiniZinc, FlatZinc or XCSP. We also report some empirical results showing that the performances that can be obtained using these features are effective and competitive with state of the art CSP portfolio techniques