Modelling of Human Behaviour and Response to the Spread of Infectious Diseases

We incorporate two types of human behavioural changes into the epidemic models. First, a two-subpopulation imitation dynamic model is constructed via the replicator dynamical equations to study the self-initiated pre-cautionary health protective behaviour under the cost-benefit considerations and group pressure. Second, the impacts of additional characteristics of imperfect vaccine and the asymmetric property of smoothed best response on the vaccination behaviour are studied within the vaccination population game framework, and via the Gompertz function, respectively

Open-minded imitation can achieve near-optimal vaccination coverage

Studies of voluntary vaccination decisions by rational individuals predict that the population will reach a Nash equilibrium with vaccination coverage below the societal optimum. Human decision-making involves mechanisms in addition to rational calculations of self-interest, such as imitation of successful others. Previous research had shown that imitation alone cannot achieve better results. Under realistic choices of the parameters it may lead to equilibrium vaccination coverage even below the Nash equilibrium. However, these findings rely on the widely accepted use of Fermi functions for modeling the probabilities of switching to another strategy. We consider here a more general functional form of the switching probabilities. It is consistent with functions that give best fits for empirical data in a widely cited psychological experiment and involves one additional parameter $\alpha$. This parameter can be loosely interpreted as a degree of open-mindedness. We found both by means of simulations and analytically that sufficiently high values of $\alpha$ will drive the equilibrium vaccination coverage arbitrarily close to the societal optimum.Comment: 31 pages, 11 figure

COVID-19 reopening strategies at the county level in the face of uncertainty: Multiple Models for Outbreak Decision Support

Policymakers make decisions about COVID-19 management in the face of considerable uncertainty. We convened multiple modeling teams to evaluate reopening strategies for a mid- sized county in the United States, in a novel process designed to fully express scientific uncertainty while reducing linguistic uncertainty and cognitive biases. For the scenarios considered, the consensus from 17 distinct models was that a second outbreak will occur within 6 months of reopening, unless schools and non-essential workplaces remain closed. Up to half the population could be infected with full workplace reopening; non-essential business closures reduced median cumulative infections by 82%. Intermediate reopening interventions identified no win-win situations; there was a trade-off between public health outcomes and duration of workplace closures. Aggregate results captured twice the uncertainty of individual models, providing a more complete expression of risk for decision-making purposes.Integrative Biolog

Strategic Decision-making about Travel during Disease Outbreaks: a Game Theoretical Approach

This is an accepted manuscript that has been accepted for publication by the Royal Society in the Journal of the Royal Society Interface and is made available under the following terms: https://royalsociety.org/journals/ethics-policies/media-embargo/Visitors can play an important role in the spread of infections. Here, we incorporate an epidemic model into a game theoretical framework to investigate the effects of travel strategies on infection control. Potential visitors must decide whether to travel to a destination that is at risk of infectious disease outbreaks. We compare the individually optimal (Nash equilibrium) strategy to the group optimal strategy that maximizes the overall population utility. Economic epidemiological models often find that individual and group optimal strategies are very different. In contrast, we find perfect agreement between individual and group optimal strategies across a wide parameter regime. For more limited regimes where disagreement does occur, the disagreement is (1) generally very extreme; (2) highly sensitive to small changes in infection transmissibility and visitor costs/benefits; and (3) can manifest either in a higher travel volume for individual optimal than group optimal strategies, or vice versa. The simulations show qualitative agreement with the 2003 Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) outbreak in Beijing, China. We conclude that a conflict between individual and group optimal visitor travel strategies during outbreaks may not generally be a problem, although extreme differences could emerge suddenly under certain changes in economic and epidemiological conditions.Early Career Scheme grant from the Hong Kong Research 343 Grant Council || PolyU 251001/14

National Workshop on Control Strategies : a review of the NSW approach. 17 and 18 April, 2001 – AMA House, Barton ACT.

The purpose of this workshop was to facilitate a structured discussion by national and state OJD technical advisers of a number of proposals for change to the on-farm strategies currently applied in NSW for controlling the spread of OJD, particularly within and from high disease prevalence areas. A number of resolutions involving control strategies, vaccine use, sheep identification and permitted sheep movements, property disease management, OJD Control zoning, approved tests and infected property profiling were passed.Meat and Livestock Australia Ltd

National Workshop on Control Strategies : a review of the NSW approach. 17 and 18 April, 2001 – AMA House, Barton ACT.

The purpose of this workshop was to facilitate a structured discussion by national and state OJD technical advisers of a number of proposals for change to the on-farm strategies currently applied in NSW for controlling the spread of OJD, particularly within and from high disease prevalence areas. A number of resolutions involving control strategies, vaccine use, sheep identification and permitted sheep movements, property disease management, OJD Control zoning, approved tests and infected property profiling were passed.Meat and Livestock Australia Ltd

Dairy Animal Care: Quality Assurance

Dairy producers are encouraged to participate in the voluntary Dairy Animal Care and Quality Assurance (DACQA) Certification program. The purpose of this program is to enhance and demonstrate quality animal care practices, which assure food safety, quality and value as well as enhance consumer confidence in the milk and beef products that are harvested from cattle on America’s dairy farms

Statistical Considerations when Communicating Health Risks: Experiences from Canada, Chile, Ecuador and England Facing COVID-19

Communicating statistics in health risk communication is a fundamental part of managing public health emergencies. Effective communication requires careful planning and the anticipation of possible information demands from the population. The information should be clear, relevant, easy to understand, timely, accurate and precise, allowing the public to make informed decisions about protective behaviours. COVID-19, being a new disease, with little known about its characteristics and effects, has challenged governments and healthcare systems in all countries. This article discusses the statistical issues involved, and the experiences of risk communication in four countries – Canada, Chile, Ecuador and England. These countries have communicated risks differently, partly because of their different healthcare systems, as well as socioeconomic, cultural and political realities. During a pandemic, health authorities and governments must step up to the challenge of communicating statistical information under pressure and with urgency, when little is known about the disease, the situation is dynamic and evolving, and the general public is gripped with fear and anxiety. This is in addition to the existing challenges relating to the generation of data of different quality by diverse sources, and a public with varying levels of statistical literacy. From a statistical perspective, communiqués about risks and numbers should convey the uncertainty there is about the information, the inherent variabilities in the system, the precision and accuracy of estimates and the assumptions behind projections. Complex technical concepts, such as ‘flattening the curve’, ‘range in risk estimates’ and ‘projected trends,’ should be explained

Dairy Animal Care: Quality Assurance

Dairy producers are encouraged to participate in the voluntary Dairy Animal Care and Quality Assurance (DACQA) Certification program. The purpose of this program is to enhance and demonstrate quality animal care practices, which assure food safety, quality and value as well as enhance consumer confidence in the milk and beef products that are harvested from cattle on America’s dairy farms

On COVID-19 Vaccination in Nigeria: An Empirical Study

This study assessed the knowledge and perception of Nigerians about COVID-19 vaccination. A cross-sectional survey was conducted comprising Health and Non-health workers in Nigeria. The knowledge, attitude, and perception of respondents on COVID- 19 vaccination in Nigeria was obtained through an online. Logistic regression was employed to determine which factor imparted on COVID-19 vaccination decision. The study showed a significant relationship between COVID-19 vaccination and immigration requirements. The survey showed that 74.07%of the health workers had been vaccinated, while 47.06% of non-Health Workers had been vaccinated. This study recommends that Governments at all levels should create more awareness of the importance of COVID-19 vaccination to increase the number of vaccinated individuals