Proton exchange membrane fuel cell degradation prediction based on Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference Systems .

International audienceThis paper studies the prediction of the output voltage reduction caused by degradation during nominal operating condition of a PEM fuel cell stack. It proposes a methodology based on Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference Systems (ANFIS) which use as input the measures of the fuel cell output voltage during operation. The paper presents the architecture of the ANFIS and studies the selection of its parameters. As the output voltage cannot be represented as a periodical signal, the paper proposes to predict its temporal variation which is then used to construct the prediction of the output voltage. The paper also proposes to split this signal in two components: normal operation and external perturbations. The second component cannot be predicted and then it is not used to train the ANFIS. The performance of the prediction is evaluated on the output voltage of two fuel cells during a long term operation (1000 hours). Validation results suggest that the proposed technique is well adapted to predict degradation in fuel cell systems

Adversarial robustness of deep learning enabled industry 4.0 prognostics

The advent of Industry 4.0 in automation and data exchange leads us toward a constant evolution in smart manufacturing environments, including extensive utilization of Internet-of-Things (IoT) and Deep Learning (DL). Specifically, the state-of-the-art Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) has shown great success in achieving a competitive edge in Industry 4.0 by reducing maintenance cost, downtime, and increasing productivity by making data-driven informed decisions. These state-of-the-art PHM systems employ IoT device data and DL algorithms to make informed decisions/predictions of Remaining Useful Life (RUL). Unfortunately, IoT sensors and DL algorithms, both are prone to cyber-attacks. For instance, deep learning algorithms are known for their susceptibility to adversarial examples. Such adversarial attacks have been extensively studied in the computer vision domain. However, it is surprising that their impact on the PHM domain is yet not explored. Thus, modern data-driven intelligent PHM systems pose a significant threat to safety- and cost-critical applications. Towards this, in this thesis, we propose a methodology to design adversarially robust PHM systems by analyzing the effect of different types of adversarial attacks on several DL enabled PHM models. More specifically, we craft adversarial attacks using Fast Gradient Sign Method (FGSM) and Basic Iterative Method (BIM) and evaluate their impact on Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU), Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), Bi-directional LSTM, and Multi-layer perceptron (MLP) based PHM models using the proposed methodology. The obtained results using NASA's turbofan engine, and a well-known battery PHM dataset show that these systems are vulnerable to adversarial attacks and can cause a serious defect in the RUL prediction. We also analyze the impact of adversarial training using the proposed methodology to enhance the adversarial robustness of the PHM systems. The obtained results show that adversarial training is successful in significantly improvising the robustness of these PHM models.Includes bibliographical references (pages 80-98)

A framework for aerospace vehicle reasoning (FAVER)

Airliners spend over 9% of their total revenue in Maintenance, Repair, and Overhaul (MRO) and working to bring down the cost and time involved. The prime focus is on unexpected downtime and extended maintenance leading to delays in the flights, which also reduces the trustworthiness of the airliners among the customers. One of the effective solutions to address this issue is Condition based Maintenance (CBM), in which the aircraft systems are monitored frequently, and maintenance plans are customized to suit the health of these systems. Integrated Vehicle Health Management (IVHM) is a capability enabling CBM by assessing the current condition of the aircraft at component/ Line Replaceable Unit/ system levels and providing diagnosis and remaining useful life calculations required for CBM. However, there is a lack of focus on vehicle level health monitoring in IVHM, which is vital to identify fault propagation between the systems, owing to their part in the complicated troubleshooting process resulting in prolonged maintenance. This research addresses this issue by proposing a Framework for Aerospace Vehicle Reasoning, shortly called FAVER. FAVER is developed to enable isolation and root cause identification of faults propagating between multiple systems at the aircraft level. This is done by involving Digital Twins (DTs) of aircraft systems in order to emulate interactions between these systems and Reasoning to assess health information to isolate cascading faults. FAVER currently uses four aircraft systems: i) the Electrical Power System, ii) the Fuel System, iii) the Engine, and iv) the Environmental Control System, to demonstrate its ability to provide high level reasoning, which can be used for troubleshooting in practice. FAVER is also demonstrated for its ability to expand, update, and scale for accommodating new aircraft systems into the framework along with its flexibility. FAVER’s reasoning ability is also evaluated by testing various use cases.Transport System

Fault-detection on an experimental aircraft fuel rig using a Kalman filter-based FDI screen

Reliability is an important issue across industry. This is due to a number of drivers such as the requirement of high safety levels within industries such as aviation, the need for mission success with military equipment, or to avoid monetary losses (due to unplanned outage) within the process and many other industries. The application of fault detection and identification helps to identify the presence of faults to improve mission success or increase up-time of plant equipment. Implementation of such systems can take the form of pattern recognition, statistical and geometric classifiers, soft computing methods or complex model based methods. This study deals with the latter, and focuses on a specific type of model, the Kalman filter. The Kalman filter is an observer which estimates the states of a system, i.e. the physical variables, based upon its current state and knowledge of its inputs. This relies upon the creation of a mathematical model of the system in order to predict the outputs of the system at any given time. Feedback from the plant corrects minor deviation between the system and the Kalman filter model. Comparison between this prediction of outputs and the real output provides the indication of the presence of a fault. On systems with several inputs and outputs banks of these filters can used in order to detect and isolate the various faults that occur in the process and its sensors and actuators. The thesis examines the application of the diagnostic techniques to a laboratory scale aircraft fuel system test-rig. The first stage of the research project required the development of a mathematical model of the fuel rig. Test data acquired by experiment is used to validate the system model against the fuel rig. This nonlinear model is then simplified to create several linear state space models of the fuel rig. These linear models are then used to develop the Kalman filter Fault Detection and Identification (FDI) system by application of appropriate tuning of the Kalman filter gains and careful choice of residual thresholds to determine fault condition boundaries and logic to identify the location of the fault. Additional performance enhancements are also achieved by implementation of statistical evaluation of the residual signal produced and by automatic threshold calculation. The results demonstrate the positive capture of a fault condition and identification of its location in an aircraft fuel system test-rig. The types of fault captured are hard faults such sensor malfunction and actuator failure which provide great deviation of the residual signals and softer faults such as performance degradation and fluid leaks in the tanks and pipes. Faults of a smaller magnitude are captured very well albeit within a larger time range. The performance of the Fault Diagnosis and Identification was further improved by the implementation of statistically evaluating the residual signal and by the development of automatic threshold determination. Identification of the location of the fault is managed by the use of mapping the possible fault permutations and the Kalman filter behaviour, this providing full discrimination between any faults present. Overall the Kalman filter based FDI developed provided positive results in capturing and identifying a system fault on the test-rig

Contribution au pronostic de durée de vie des systèmes piles à combustible PEMFC

This thesis work aims to provide solutions for the limited lifetime of Proton Exchange Membrane Fuel Cell Systems (PEM-FCS) based on two complementary disciplines:A first approach consists in increasing the lifetime of the PEM-FCS by designing and implementing a Prognostics & Health Management (PHM) architecture. The PEM-FCS are essentially multi-physical systems (electrical, fluid, electrochemical, thermal, mechanical, etc.) and multi-scale (time and space), thus its behaviors are hardly understandable. The nonlinear nature of phenomena, the reversibility or not of degradations and the interactions between components makes it quite difficult to have a failure modeling stage. Moreover, the lack of homogeneity (actual) in the manufacturing process makes it difficult for statistical characterization of their behavior. The deployment of a PHM solution would indeed anticipate and avoid failures, assess the state of health, estimate the Remaining Useful Lifetime (RUL) of the system and finally consider control actions (control and/or maintenance) to ensure operation continuity.A second approach proposes to use a passive hybridization of the PEMFC with Ultra Capacitors (UC) to operate the fuel cell closer to its optimum operating conditions and thereby minimize the impact of aging. The UC appear as an additional source to the PEMFC due to their high power density, their capacity to charge/discharge rapidly, their reversibility and their long life. If we take the example of fuel cell hybrid electrical vehicles, the association between a PEMFC and UC can be performed using a hybrid of active or passive type system. The overall behavior of the system depends on both, the choice of the architecture and the positioning of these elements in connection with the electric charge. Today, research in this area focuses mainly on energy management between the sources and embedded storage and the definition and optimization of a power electronic interface designated to adjust the flow of energy between them. However, the presence of power converters increases the source of faults and failures (failure of the switches of the power converter and the impact of high frequency current oscillations on the aging of the PEMFC), and also increases the energy losses of the entire system (even if the performance of the power converter is high, it nevertheless degrades the overall system).Les travaux de cette thèse visent à apporter des éléments de solutions au problème de la durée de vie des systèmes pile à combustible (FCS – Fuel Cell System) de type à « membrane échangeuse de protons » (PEM – Proton Exchange Membrane) et se décline sur deux champs disciplinaires complémentaires :Une première approche vise à augmenter la durée de vie de celle-ci par la conception et la mise en œuvre d'une architecture de pronostic et de gestion de l'état de santé (PHM – Prognostics & Health Management). Les PEM-FCS, de par leur technologie, sont par essence des systèmes multi-physiques (électriques, fluidiques, électrochimiques, thermiques, mécaniques, etc.) et multi-échelles (de temps et d'espace) dont les comportements sont difficilement appréhendables. La nature non linéaire des phénomènes, le caractère réversible ou non des dégradations, et les interactions entre composants rendent effectivement difficile une étape de modélisation des défaillances. De plus, le manque d'homogénéité (actuel) dans le processus de fabrication rend difficile la caractérisation statistique de leur comportement. Le déploiement d'une solution PHM permettrait en effet d'anticiper et d'éviter les défaillances, d'évaluer l'état de santé, d'estimer le temps de vie résiduel du système, et finalement, d'envisager des actions de maîtrise (contrôle et/ou maintenance) pour assurer la continuité de fonctionnement. Une deuxième approche propose d'avoir recours à une hybridation passive de la PEMFC avec des super-condensateurs (UC – Ultra Capacitor) de façon à faire fonctionner la pile au plus proche de ses conditions opératoires optimales et ainsi, à minimiser l'impact du vieillissement. Les UCs apparaissent comme une source complémentaire à la PEMFC en raison de leur forte densité de puissance, de leur capacité de charge/décharge rapide, de leur réversibilité et de leur grande durée de vie. Si l'on prend l'exemple des véhicules à pile à combustible, l'association entre une PEMFC et des UCs peut être réalisée en utilisant un système hybride de type actif ou passif. Le comportement global du système dépend à la fois du choix de l'architecture et du positionnement de ces éléments en lien avec la charge électrique. Aujourd'hui, les recherches dans ce domaine se focalisent essentiellement sur la gestion d'énergie entre les sources et stockeurs embarqués ; et sur la définition et l'optimisation d'une interface électronique de puissance destinée à conditionner le flux d'énergie entre eux. Cependant, la présence de convertisseurs statiques augmente les sources de défaillances et pannes (défaillance des interrupteurs du convertisseur statique lui-même, impact des oscillations de courant haute fréquence sur le vieillissement de la pile), et augmente également les pertes énergétiques du système complet (même si le rendement du convertisseur statique est élevé, il dégrade néanmoins le bilan global)

Application of data analytics for predictive maintenance in aerospace: an approach to imbalanced learning.

The use of aircraft operational logs to predict potential failure that may lead to disruption poses many challenges and has yet to be fully explored. These logs are captured during each flight and contain streamed data from various aircraft subsystems relating to status and warning indicators. They may, therefore, be regarded as complex multivariate time-series data. Given that aircraft are high-integrity assets, failures are extremely rare, and hence the distribution of relevant data containing prior indicators will be highly skewed to the normal (healthy) case. This will present a significant challenge in using data-driven techniques to 'learning' relationships/patterns that depict fault scenarios since the model will be biased to the heavily weighted no-fault outcomes. This thesis aims to develop a predictive model for aircraft component failure utilising data from the aircraft central maintenance system (ACMS). The initial objective is to determine the suitability of the ACMS data for predictive maintenance modelling. An exploratory analysis of the data revealed several inherent irregularities, including an extreme data imbalance problem, irregular patterns and trends, class overlapping, and small class disjunct, all of which are significant drawbacks for traditional machine learning algorithms, resulting in low-performance models. Four novel advanced imbalanced classification techniques are developed to handle the identified data irregularities. The first algorithm focuses on pattern extraction and uses bootstrapping to oversample the minority class; the second algorithm employs the balanced calibrated hybrid ensemble technique to overcome class overlapping and small class disjunct; the third algorithm uses a derived loss function and new network architecture to handle extremely imbalanced ratios in deep neural networks; and finally, a deep reinforcement learning approach for imbalanced classification problems in log- based datasets is developed. An ACMS dataset and its accompanying maintenance records were used to validate the proposed algorithms. The research's overall finding indicates that an advanced method for handling extremely imbalanced problems using the log-based ACMS datasets is viable for developing robust data-driven predictive maintenance models for aircraft component failure. When the four implementations were compared, deep reinforcement learning (DRL) strategies, specifically the proposed double deep State-action-reward-state-action with prioritised experience reply memory (DDSARSA+PER), outperformed other methods in terms of false-positive and false-negative rates for all the components considered. The validation result further suggests that the DDSARSA+PER model is capable of predicting around 90% of aircraft component replacements with a 0.005 false-negative rate in both A330 and A320 aircraft families studied in this researchPhD in Transport System

Aeronautical Engineering: A special bibliography with indexes, supplement 54

This bibliography lists 316 reports, articles, and other documents introduced into the NASA scientific and technical information system in January 1975

Uncertainty analysis in product service system: Bayesian network modelling for availability contract

There is an emerging trend of manufacturing companies offering combined products and services to customers as integrated solutions. Availability contracts are an apt instance of such offerings, where product use is guaranteed to customer and is enforced by incentive-penalty schemes. Uncertainties in such an industry setting, where all stakeholders are striving to achieve their respective performance goals and at the same time collaborating intensively, is increased. Understanding through-life uncertainties and their impact on cost is critical to ensure sustainability and profitability of the industries offering such solutions. In an effort to address this challenge, the aim of this research study is to provide an approach for the analysis of uncertainties in Product Service System (PSS) delivered in business-to-business application by specifying a procedure to identify, characterise and model uncertainties with an emphasis to provide decision support and prioritisation of key uncertainties affecting the performance outcomes. The thesis presents a literature review in research areas which are at the interface of topics such as uncertainty, PSS and availability contracts. From this seven requirements that are vital to enhance the understanding and quantification of uncertainties in Product Service System are drawn. These requirements are synthesised into a conceptual uncertainty framework. The framework prescribes four elements, which include identifying a set of uncertainties, discerning the relationships between uncertainties, tools and techniques to treat uncertainties and finally, results that could ease uncertainty management and analysis efforts. The conceptual uncertainty framework was applied to an industry case study in availability contracts, where each of the four elements was realised. This application phase of the research included the identification of uncertainties in PSS, development of a multi-layer uncertainty classification, deriving the structure of Bayesian Network and finally, evaluation and validation of the Bayesian Network. The findings suggest that understanding uncertainties from a system perspective is essential to capture the network aspect of PSS. This network comprises of several stakeholders, where there is increased flux of information and material flows and this could be effectively represented using Bayesian Networks