Discrete-time rewards model-checked

This paper presents a model-checking approach for analyzing discrete-time Markov reward models. For this purpose, the temporal logic probabilistic CTL is extended with reward constraints. This allows to formulate complex measures – involving expected as well as accumulated rewards – in a precise and succinct way. Algorithms to efficiently analyze such formulae are introduced. The approach is illustrated by model-checking a probabilistic cost model of the IPv4 zeroconf protocol for distributed address assignment in ad-hoc networks

Quantitative Safety: Linking Proof-Based Verification with Model Checking for Probabilistic Systems

This paper presents a novel approach for augmenting proof-based verification with performance-style analysis of the kind employed in state-of-the-art model checking tools for probabilistic systems. Quantitative safety properties usually specified as probabilistic system invariants and modeled in proof-based environments are evaluated using bounded model checking techniques. Our specific contributions include the statement of a theorem that is central to model checking safety properties of proof-based systems, the establishment of a procedure; and its full implementation in a prototype system (YAGA) which readily transforms a probabilistic model specified in a proof-based environment to its equivalent verifiable PRISM model equipped with reward structures. The reward structures capture the exact interpretation of the probabilistic invariants and can reveal succinct information about the model during experimental investigations. Finally, we demonstrate the novelty of the technique on a probabilistic library case study

Logic and model checking for hidden Markov models

The branching-time temporal logic PCTL* has been introduced to specify quantitative properties over probability systems, such as discrete-time Markov chains. Until now, however, no logics have been defined to specify properties over hidden Markov models (HMMs). In HMMs the states are hidden, and the hidden processes produce a sequence of observations. In this paper we extend the logic PCTL* to POCTL*. With our logic one can state properties such as "there is at least a 90 percent probability that the model produces a given sequence of observations" over HMMs. Subsequently, we give model checking algorithms for POCTL* over HMMs

Cost-Bounded Active Classification Using Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes

Active classification, i.e., the sequential decision-making process aimed at data acquisition for classification purposes, arises naturally in many applications, including medical diagnosis, intrusion detection, and object tracking. In this work, we study the problem of actively classifying dynamical systems with a finite set of Markov decision process (MDP) models. We are interested in finding strategies that actively interact with the dynamical system, and observe its reactions so that the true model is determined efficiently with high confidence. To this end, we present a decision-theoretic framework based on partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs). The proposed framework relies on assigning a classification belief (a probability distribution) to each candidate MDP model. Given an initial belief, some misclassification probabilities, a cost bound, and a finite time horizon, we design POMDP strategies leading to classification decisions. We present two different approaches to find such strategies. The first approach computes the optimal strategy "exactly" using value iteration. To overcome the computational complexity of finding exact solutions, the second approach is based on adaptive sampling to approximate the optimal probability of reaching a classification decision. We illustrate the proposed methodology using two examples from medical diagnosis and intruder detection

Computing Quantiles in Markov Reward Models

Probabilistic model checking mainly concentrates on techniques for reasoning about the probabilities of certain path properties or expected values of certain random variables. For the quantitative system analysis, however, there is also another type of interesting performance measure, namely quantiles. A typical quantile query takes as input a lower probability bound p and a reachability property. The task is then to compute the minimal reward bound r such that with probability at least p the target set will be reached before the accumulated reward exceeds r. Quantiles are well-known from mathematical statistics, but to the best of our knowledge they have not been addressed by the model checking community so far. In this paper, we study the complexity of quantile queries for until properties in discrete-time finite-state Markov decision processes with non-negative rewards on states. We show that qualitative quantile queries can be evaluated in polynomial time and present an exponential algorithm for the evaluation of quantitative quantile queries. For the special case of Markov chains, we show that quantitative quantile queries can be evaluated in time polynomial in the size of the chain and the maximum reward.Comment: 17 pages, 1 figure; typo in example correcte

Extending Markov Automata with State and Action Rewards

This presentation introduces the Markov Reward Automaton (MRA), an extension of the Markov automaton that allows the modelling of systems incorporating rewards in addition to nondeterminism, discrete probabilistic choice and continuous stochastic timing. Our models support both rewards that are acquired instantaneously when taking certain transitions (action rewards) and rewards that are based on the duration that certain conditions hold (state rewards). In addition to introducing the MRA model, we extend the process-algebraic language MAPA to easily specify MRAs. Also, we provide algorithms for computing the expected reward until reaching one of a certain set of goal states, as well as the long-run average reward. We extended the MAMA tool chain (consisting of the tools SCOOP and IMCA) to implement the reward extension of MAPA and these algorithms

Stochastic modeling, analysis and verification of mission-critical systems and processes

Software and business processes used in mission-critical defence applications are often characterised by stochastic behaviour. The causes for this behaviour range from unanticipated environmental changes and built-in random delays to component and communication protocol unreliability. This paper overviews the use of a stochastic modelling and analysis technique called quantitative verication to establish whether mission-critical software and business processes meet their reliability, performance and other quality-of-service requirements