Autoregressive time series prediction by means of fuzzy inference systems using nonparametric residual variance estimation

We propose an automatic methodology framework for short- and long-term prediction of time series by means of fuzzy inference systems. In this methodology, fuzzy techniques and statistical techniques for nonparametric residual variance estimation are combined in order to build autoregressive predictive models implemented as fuzzy inference systems. Nonparametric residual variance estimation plays a key role in driving the identification and learning procedures. Concrete criteria and procedures within the proposed methodology framework are applied to a number of time series prediction problems. The learn from examples method introduced by Wang and Mendel (W&M) is used for identification. The Levenberg–Marquardt (L–M) optimization method is then applied for tuning. The W&M method produces compact and potentially accurate inference systems when applied after a proper variable selection stage. The L–M method yields the best compromise between accuracy and interpretability of results, among a set of alternatives. Delta test based residual variance estimations are used in order to select the best subset of inputs to the fuzzy inference systems as well as the number of linguistic labels for the inputs. Experiments on a diverse set of time series prediction benchmarks are compared against least-squares support vector machines (LS-SVM), optimally pruned extreme learning machine (OP-ELM), and k-NN based autoregressors. The advantages of the proposed methodology are shown in terms of linguistic interpretability, generalization capability and computational cost. Furthermore, fuzzy models are shown to be consistently more accurate for prediction in the case of time series coming from real-world applications.Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación TEC2008-04920Junta de Andalucía P08-TIC-03674, IAC07-I-0205:33080, IAC08-II-3347:5626

Energy performance forecasting of residential buildings using fuzzy approaches

The energy consumption used for domestic purposes in Europe is, to a considerable extent, due to heating and cooling. This energy is produced mostly by burning fossil fuels, which has a high negative environmental impact. The characteristics of a building are an important factor to determine the necessities of heating and cooling loads. Therefore, the study of the relevant characteristics of the buildings, regarding the heating and cooling needed to maintain comfortable indoor air conditions, could be very useful in order to design and construct energy-efficient buildings. In previous studies, different machine-learning approaches have been used to predict heating and cooling loads from the set of variables: relative compactness, surface area, wall area, roof area, overall height, orientation, glazing area and glazing area distribution. However, none of these methods are based on fuzzy logic. In this research, we study two fuzzy logic approaches, i.e., fuzzy inductive reasoning (FIR) and adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), to deal with the same problem. Fuzzy approaches obtain very good results, outperforming all the methods described in previous studies except one. In this work, we also study the feature selection process of FIR methodology as a pre-processing tool to select the more relevant variables before the use of any predictive modelling methodology. It is proven that FIR feature selection provides interesting insights into the main building variables causally related to heating and cooling loads. This allows better decision making and design strategies, since accurate cooling and heating load estimations and correct identification of parameters that affect building energy demands are of high importance to optimize building designs and equipment specifications.Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version

Model fusion using fuzzy aggregation: Special applications to metal properties

To improve the modelling performance, one should either propose a new modelling methodology or make the best of existing models. In this paper, the study is concentrated on the latter solution, where a structure-free modelling paradigm is proposed. It does not rely on a fixed structure and can combine various modelling techniques in ‘symbiosis’ using a ‘master fuzzy system’. This approach is shown to be able to include the advantages of different modelling techniques altogether by requiring less training and by minimising the efforts relating optimisation of the final structure. The proposed approach is then successfully applied to the industrial problems of predicting machining induced residual stresses for aerospace alloy components as well as modelling the mechanical properties of heat-treated alloy steels, both representing complex, non-linear and multi-dimensional environments

Simulation of Water Distribution Systems

In this paper a software package offering a means of simulating complex water distribution systems is described. It has been developed in the course of our investigations into the applicability of neural networks and fuzzy systems for the implementation of decision support systems in operational control of industrial processes with case-studies taken from the water industry. Examples of how the simulation package have been used in a design and testing of the algorithms for state estimation, confidence limit analysis and fault detection are presented. Arguments for using a suitable graphical visualization techniques in solving problems like meter placement or leakage diagnosis are also given and supported by a set of examples

Soft Computing Techniques and Their Applications in Intel-ligent Industrial Control Systems: A Survey

Soft computing involves a series of methods that are compatible with imprecise information and complex human cognition. In the face of industrial control problems, soft computing techniques show strong intelligence, robustness and cost-effectiveness. This study dedicates to providing a survey on soft computing techniques and their applications in industrial control systems. The methodologies of soft computing are mainly classified in terms of fuzzy logic, neural computing, and genetic algorithms. The challenges surrounding modern industrial control systems are summarized based on the difficulties in information acquisition, the difficulties in modeling control rules, the difficulties in control system optimization, and the requirements for robustness. Then, this study reviews soft-computing-related achievements that have been developed to tackle these challenges. Afterwards, we present a retrospect of practical industrial control applications in the fields including transportation, intelligent machines, process industry as well as energy engineering. Finally, future research directions are discussed from different perspectives. This study demonstrates that soft computing methods can endow industry control processes with many merits, thus having great application potential. It is hoped that this survey can serve as a reference and provide convenience for scholars and practitioners in the fields of industrial control and computer science

Design and implementation of fuzzy logic controllers

The main objectives of our research are to present a self-contained overview of fuzzy sets and fuzzy logic, develop a methodology for control system design using fuzzy logic controllers, and to design and implement a fuzzy logic controller for a real system. We first present the fundamental concepts of fuzzy sets and fuzzy logic. Fuzzy sets and basic fuzzy operations are defined. In addition, for control systems, it is important to understand the concepts of linguistic values, term sets, fuzzy rule base, inference methods, and defuzzification methods. Second, we introduce a four-step fuzzy logic control system design procedure. The design procedure is illustrated via four examples, showing the capabilities and robustness of fuzzy logic control systems. This is followed by a tuning procedure that we developed from our design experience. Third, we present two Lyapunov based techniques for stability analysis. Finally, we present our design and implementation of a fuzzy logic controller for a linear actuator to be used to control the direction of the Free Flight Rotorcraft Research Vehicle at LaRC

The Empire is dead, long live the Empire! Long-run persistence of trust and corruption in the bureaucracy

Do empires affect attitudes towards the state long after their demise? We hypothesize that the Habsburg Empire with its localized and well-respected administration increased citizens’ trust in local public services. In several Eastern European countries, communities on both sides of the long-gone Habsburg border have been sharing common formal institutions for a century now. Identifying from individuals living within a restricted band around the former border, we find that historical Habsburg affiliation increases current trust and reduces corruption in courts and police. Falsification tests of spuriously moved borders, geographic and pre-existing differences, and interpersonal trust corroborate a genuine Habsburg effect