Differences between low-end and high-end climate change impacts in Europe across multiple sectors

The Paris Agreement established the 1.5 and 2 °C targets based on the recognition “that this would significantly reduce the risks and impacts of climate change”. We tested this assertion by comparing impacts at the regional scale between low-end ( 4 °C; RCP8.5) climate change scenarios accounting for interactions across six sectors (agriculture, forestry, biodiversity, water, coasts and urban) using an integrated assessment model. Results show that there are only minor differences in most impact indicators for the 2020s time slice, but impacts are considerably greater under high-end than low-end climate change in the 2050s and 2080s. For example, for the 2080s, mitigation consistent with the Paris Agreement would reduce aggregate Europe-wide impacts on the area of intensive agriculture by 21% (on average across climate models), on the area of managed forests by 34%, on water stress by 14%, on people flooded by 10% and on biodiversity vulnerability by 16%. Including socio-economic scenarios (SSPs 1, 3, 4, 5) results in considerably greater variation in the magnitude, range and direction of change of the majority of impact indicators than climate change alone. In particular, socio-economic factors much more strongly drive changes in land use and food production than changes in climate, sometimes overriding the differences due to low-end and high-end climate change. Such impacts pose significant challenges for adaptation and highlight the importance of searching for synergies between adaptation and mitigation and linking them to sustainable development goals

A spatially explicit and quantitative vulnerability assessment of ecosystem service change in Europe

Environmental change alters ecosystem functioning and may put the provision of services to human at risk. This paper presents a spatially explicit and quantitative assessment of the corresponding vulnerability for Europe, using a new framework designed to answer multidisciplinary policy relevant questions about the vulnerability of the human-environment system to global change. Scenarios were constructed for a range of possible changes in socio-economic trends, land uses and climate. These scenarios were used as inputs in a range of ecosystem models in order to assess the response of ecosystem function as well as the changes in the services they provide. The framework was used to relate the impacts of changing ecosystem service provision for four sectors in relation to each other, and to combine them with a simple, but generic index for societal adaptive capacity. By allowing analysis of different sectors, regions and development pathways, the vulnerability assessment provides a basis for discussion between stakeholders and policymakers about sustainable management of Europe¿s natural resource

Differentiation and Dynamics of Competitiveness Impacts from the EU ETS

We summarise the main factors that differentiate impacts of the EU ETS on profitability and market share. By examining and sampling a range of sectors, we present some simple metrics and indicators to help judge the nature of potential impacts. We also consider briefly the mitigation response to these impacts by sectors, and how they may evolve over time. The broad conclusion confirms the aggregate findings presented in the existing literature - more participating sectors are likely to profit under the current ETS structure out to 2012 at the cost of a modest loss of market share, but this may not hold for individual companies and regions. The period 2008-12 can assist technology investments and diversification, providing the continuation and basic principles of the EU ETS post-2012 is quickly defined and incentives are in place for sectors to pursue this

Pan-European backcasting exercise, enriched with regional perspective, and including a list of short-term policy options

This deliverable reports on the results of the third and final pan-European stakeholder meeting and secondly, on the enrichment with a Pilot Area and regional perspective. The main emphasis is on backcasting as a means to arrive at long-term strategies and short-term (policy) actions

Differentiation and dynamics of competitiveness impacts from the EU ETS

We summarises the main factors that differentiate impacts of the EU ETS on profitability and market share. By examining sampling a range of sectors, we present some simple metrics and indicators to help judge the nature of potential impacts. We also consider briefly the mitigation response to these impacts by sectors, and how they may evolve over time. The broad conclusion confirms the aggregate findings presented in the existing literature - most participating sectors are likely to profit under the current ETS structure out to 2012 at the cost of a modest loss of market share, but this may not hold for individual companies and regions. The period 2008-12 can assist participating sectors to build experience and financial reserves for longer term technology investments and diversification, providing the continuation and basic principles of the EU ETS post-2012 is quickly defined and incentives are in place for sectors to pursue this.Emissions trading, industrial competitiveness, spillovers, allowance allocation, perverse incentives.

Assessing carbon dioxide emission reduction potentials of improved manufacturing processes using multiregional input output frameworks

Evaluating innovative process technologies has become highly important within the last decades. As standard tools different Life Cycle Assessment methods have been established, which are continuously improved. While those are designed for evaluating single processes they run into difficulties when it comes to assessing environmental impacts of process innovations at macroeconomic level. In this paper we develop a multi-step evaluation framework building on multi regional input–output data that allows estimating macroeconomic impacts of new process technologies, considering the network characteristics of the global economy. Our procedure is as follows: i) we measure differences in material usage of process alternatives, ii) we identify where the standard processes are located within economic networks and virtually replace those by innovative process technologies, iii) we account for changes within economic systems and evaluate impacts on emissions. Within this paper we exemplarily apply the methodology to two recently developed innovative technologies: longitudinal large diameter steel pipe welding and turning of high-temperature resistant materials. While we find the macroeconomic impacts of very specific process innovations to be small, its conclusions can significantly differ from traditional process based approaches. Furthermore, information gained from the methodology provides relevant additional insights for decision makers extending the picture gained from traditional process life cycle assessment.DFG, SFB 1026, Sustainable Manufacturing - Globale Wertschöpfung nachhaltig gestalte

Four futures for energy markets and climate change

Future developments in energy and climate are highly uncertain. In order to deal with these uncertainties, we developed four long-term scenarios based on the recently published economic scenarios Four Futures of Europe: STRONG EUROPE, GLOBAL ECONOMY, TRANSATLANTIC MARKET and REGIONAL COMMUNITIES. In this study, we explore the next four decades. Although the report focuses on Europe, global aspects of energy use and climate change play a significant role. The next decades, global reserves of oil and natural gas will likely be sufficient to meet the growing demand. Therefore, there is no need to worry about a looming depletion of natural energy resources. The use of fossil energy carriers will, however, affect climate because of the emissions of greenhouse gasses. In order to mitigate global increases of temperature, emissions of greenhouse gasses should be reduced. Developing countries should contribute to that effort. On the one hand they will be major emitters in the near future, on the other hand they have the low-cost abatement options.