Four futures for energy markets and climate change

Abstract

Future developments in energy and climate are highly uncertain. In order to deal with these uncertainties, we developed four long-term scenarios based on the recently published economic scenarios Four Futures of Europe: STRONG EUROPE, GLOBAL ECONOMY, TRANSATLANTIC MARKET and REGIONAL COMMUNITIES. In this study, we explore the next four decades. Although the report focuses on Europe, global aspects of energy use and climate change play a significant role. The next decades, global reserves of oil and natural gas will likely be sufficient to meet the growing demand. Therefore, there is no need to worry about a looming depletion of natural energy resources. The use of fossil energy carriers will, however, affect climate because of the emissions of greenhouse gasses. In order to mitigate global increases of temperature, emissions of greenhouse gasses should be reduced. Developing countries should contribute to that effort. On the one hand they will be major emitters in the near future, on the other hand they have the low-cost abatement options.