Increasing occurrence of cold and warm extremes during the recent global warming slowdown.

The recent levelling of global mean temperatures after the late 1990s, the so-called global warming hiatus or slowdown, ignited a surge of scientific interest into natural global mean surface temperature variability, observed temperature biases, and climate communication, but many questions remain about how these findings relate to variations in more societally relevant temperature extremes. Here we show that both summertime warm and wintertime cold extreme occurrences increased over land during the so-called hiatus period, and that these increases occurred for distinct reasons. The increase in cold extremes is associated with an atmospheric circulation pattern resembling the warm Arctic-cold continents pattern, whereas the increase in warm extremes is tied to a pattern of sea surface temperatures resembling the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. These findings indicate that large-scale factors responsible for the most societally relevant temperature variations over continents are distinct from those of global mean surface temperature

Multi-Scale Entropy Analysis as a Method for Time-Series Analysis of Climate Data

Evidence is mounting that the temporal dynamics of the climate system are changing at the same time as the average global temperature is increasing due to multiple climate forcings. A large number of extreme weather events such as prolonged cold spells, heatwaves, droughts and floods have been recorded around the world in the past 10 years. Such changes in the temporal scaling behaviour of climate time-series data can be difficult to detect. While there are easy and direct ways of analysing climate data by calculating the means and variances for different levels of temporal aggregation, these methods can miss more subtle changes in their dynamics. This paper describes multi-scale entropy (MSE) analysis as a tool to study climate time-series data and to identify temporal scales of variability and their change over time in climate time-series. MSE estimates the sample entropy of the time-series after coarse-graining at different temporal scales. An application of MSE to Central European, variance-adjusted, mean monthly air temperature anomalies (CRUTEM4v) is provided. The results show that the temporal scales of the current climate (1960–2014) are different from the long-term average (1850–1960). For temporal scale factors longer than 12 months, the sample entropy increased markedly compared to the long-term record. Such an increase can be explained by systems theory with greater complexity in the regional temperature data. From 1961 the patterns of monthly air temperatures are less regular at time-scales greater than 12 months than in the earlier time period. This finding suggests that, at these inter-annual time scales, the temperature variability has become less predictable than in the past. It is possible that climate system feedbacks are expressed in altered temporal scales of the European temperature time-series data. A comparison with the variance and Shannon entropy shows that MSE analysis can provide additional information on the statistical properties of climate time-series data that can go undetected using traditional method

Root cause isolation of propagated oscillations in process plants

Persistent whole-plant disturbances can have an especially large impact on product quality and running costs. There is thus a motivation for the automated detection of a plant-wide disturbance and for the isolation of its sources. Oscillations increase variability and can prevent a plant from operating close to optimal constraints. They can also camouflage other behaviour that may need attention such as upsets due to external disturbances. A large petrochemical plant may have a 1000 or more control loops and indicators, so a key requirement of an industrial control engineer is for an automated means to detect and isolate the root cause of these oscillations so that maintenance effort can be directed efficiently. The propagation model that is proposed is represented by a log-ratio plot, which is shown to be ‘bell’ shaped in most industrial situations. Theoretical and practical issues are addressed to derive guidelines for determining the cut-off frequencies of the ‘bell’ from data sets requiring little knowledge of the plant schematic and controller settings. The alternative method for isolation is based on the bispectrum and makes explicit use of this model representation. A comparison is then made with other techniques. These techniques include nonlinear time series analysis tools like Correlation dimension and maximal Lyapunov Exponent and a new interpretation of the Spectral ICA method, which is proposed to accommodate our revised understanding of harmonic propagation. Both simulated and real plant data are used to test the proposed approaches. Results demonstrate and compare their ability to detect and isolate the root cause of whole plant oscillations. Being based on higher order statistics (HOS), the bispectrum also provides a means to detect nonlinearity when oscillatory measurement records exist in process systems. Its comparison with previous HOS based nonlinearity detection method is made and the bispectrum-based is preferred

Speleothem Paleoclimatology for the Caribbean, Central America, and North America

Speleothem oxygen isotope records from the Caribbean, Central, and North America reveal climatic controls that include orbital variation, deglacial forcing related to ocean circulation and ice sheet retreat, and the influence of local and remote sea surface temperature variations. Here, we review these records and the global climate teleconnections they suggest following the recent publication of the Speleothem Isotopes Synthesis and Analysis (SISAL) database. We find that low-latitude records generally reflect changes in precipitation, whereas higher latitude records are sensitive to temperature and moisture source variability. Tropical records suggest precipitation variability is forced by orbital precession and North Atlantic Ocean circulation driven changes in atmospheric convection on long timescales, and tropical sea surface temperature variations on short timescales. On millennial timescales, precipitation seasonality in southwestern North America is related to North Atlantic climate variability. Great Basin speleothem records are closely linked with changes in Northern Hemisphere summer insolation. Although speleothems have revealed these critical global climate teleconnections, the paucity of continuous records precludes our ability to investigate climate drivers from the whole of Central and North America for the Pleistocene through modern. This underscores the need to improve spatial and temporal coverage of speleothem records across this climatically variable region

Long-term SST variability on the Northwest Atlantic continental shelf and slope

Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2020. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Geophysical Research Letters 47(1), (2020): e2019GL085455, doi:10.1029/2019GL085455.The meridional coherence, connectivity, and regional inhomogeneity in long‐term sea surface temperature (SST) variability over the Northwest Atlantic continental shelf and slope from 1982–2018 are investigated using observational data sets. A meridionally concurrent large SST warming trend is identified as the dominant signal over the length of the continental shelf and slope between Cape Hatteras in North Carolina and Cape Chidley, Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada. The linear trends are 0.37 ± 0.06 and 0.39 ± 0.06 °C/decade for the shelf and slope regions, respectively. These meridionally averaged SST time series over the shelf and slope are consistent with each other and across multiple longer observational data sets with records dating back to 1900. The coherence between the long‐term meridionally averaged time series over the shelf and slope and basin‐wide averaged SST in the North Atlantic implies approximately two thirds of the warming trend during 1982–2018 may be attributed to natural climate variability and the rest to externally forced change including anthropogenic warming.We are grateful to the Editor Dr. Kathleen Donohue and two anonymous reviewers. This work was supported by NOAA's Climate Program Office's Modeling, Analysis, Predictions, and Projections (MAPP) program (NA19OAR4320074). We acknowledge our participation in MAPP's Marine Prediction Task Force. The data of NOAA OISST used in this study are available at NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory (https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/gridded/data.noaa.oisst.v2.highres.html). The HadISST data set is available at Met Office, Hadley Centre (https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadisst/). The COBE SST and NOAA ERSST data sets are available at NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory's Physical Sciences Division (https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/gridded/data.cobe.html; https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/gridded/data.noaa.ersst.v5.html). The near‐surface air temperature is available at Global Historical Climatology Network‐Monthly Database (https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/data‐access/land‐based‐station‐data/land‐based‐datasets/global‐historical‐climatology‐network‐monthly‐version‐4). The data of SSH are available at Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service (http://marine.copernicus.eu/services‐portfolio/access‐to‐products/?option=com_csw&view=details&product_id=SEALEVEL_GLO_PHY_ L4_REP_OBSERVATIONS_008_047).2020-07-0

The 1958–2009 Greenland ice sheet surface melt and the mid-tropospheric atmospheric circulation

peer reviewedaudience: researcherIn order to assess the impact of the mid-tropospheric circulation over the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) on surface melt, as simulated by the regional climate model MAR, an automatic Circulation type classification (CTC) based on 500 hPa geopotential height from reanalyses is developed. General circulation correlates significantly with the surface melt anomalies for the summers in the period 1958–2009. The record surface melt events observed during the summers of 2007–2009 are linked to the exceptional persistence of atmospheric circulations favouring warm air advection. The CTC emphasizes that summer 500 hPa circulation patterns have changed since the beginning of the 2000s; this process is partly responsible for the recent warming observed over the GrIS

Doctor of Philosophy

dissertationAmong the most societally important trends in observations and models are poleward shifts in global circulation features. In order to investigate the magnitude and mechanisms of such circulation shifts, we explore the general circulation response to imposed forcings, using the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratories Atmospheric Model version 2.1. Present-day simulations exhibit robust poleward shifts in zonal mean circulation features, compared to a preindustrial control, as do future simulations compared to presentday. These responses vary by season, and the response to combined forcings is wellapproximated by the sum of the individual responses. Results suggest that warming sea surface temperatures are the main driver of circulation change over both hemispheres. This work also projects that the southern hemisphere jet will continue to shift poleward, albeit more slowly during the summer due to expected ozone recovery in the stratosphere. The relationship between shifts in the position of the eddy-driven jet and of the Hadley cell edge are examined. From year to year, the eddy-driven jet shifts more than the Hadley cell edge, with a ratio of approximately 1.5:1 between the two depending on season, hemisphere, and simulation. Furthermore, the mean position of the Hadley cell edge explains a substantial portion of the variability of this ratio. The author attributes this to the varying susceptibility of the Hadley cell to the influence of midlatitude eddies. Finally, the transient response to suddenly imposed forcings is examined. For both direct radiative forcings and sea surface warming, broad tropospheric and stratospheric temperature changes can be seen almost immediately. Once zonal winds near the tropopause accelerate a few days later, zonal winds and eddies respond throughout the rest of the troposphere, shifting the surface circulation. The transient changes in the Ferrel cell center and the Hadley cell edge appear simultaneous, illustrating the need for consideration of both tropical and extratropical processes in the theory for the latitude of either the Hadley cell edge or the eddy-driven jet

The Scale-Free Dynamics of Eukaryotic Cells

Temporal organization of biological processes requires massively parallel processing on a synchronized time-base. We analyzed time-series data obtained from the bioenergetic oscillatory outputs of Saccharomyces cerevisiae and isolated cardiomyocytes utilizing Relative Dispersional (RDA) and Power Spectral (PSA) analyses. These analyses revealed broad frequency distributions and evidence for long-term memory in the observed dynamics. Moreover RDA and PSA showed that the bioenergetic dynamics in both systems show fractal scaling over at least 3 orders of magnitude, and that this scaling obeys an inverse power law. Therefore we conclude that in S. cerevisiae and cardiomyocytes the dynamics are scale-free in vivo. Applying RDA and PSA to data generated from an in silico model of mitochondrial function indicated that in yeast and cardiomyocytes the underlying mechanisms regulating the scale-free behavior are similar. We validated this finding in vivo using single cells, and attenuating the activity of the mitochondrial inner membrane anion channel with 4-chlorodiazepam to show that the oscillation of NAD(P)H and reactive oxygen species (ROS) can be abated in these two evolutionarily distant species. Taken together these data strongly support our hypothesis that the generation of ROS, coupled to redox cycling, driven by cytoplasmic and mitochondrial processes, are at the core of the observed rhythmicity and scale-free dynamics. We argue that the operation of scale-free bioenergetic dynamics plays a fundamental role to integrate cellular function, while providing a framework for robust, yet flexible, responses to the environment

Origin of Variability in Northern Hemisphere Winter Blocking on Interannual to Decadal Time Scales

Variability of mid-latitude blocking in the boreal winter northern hemisphere is investigated for the period 1960/61 to 2001/02 by means of relaxation experiments with the model of the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. It is shown that there is pronounced interannual and decadal variability in blocking, especially over the Eurasian continent, consistent with previous studies. The relaxation experiments show that realistic variability in the tropics can account for a significant part of observed interannual blocking variability, but also that about half of the observed variability can only be explained by extratropical tropospheric variability. On the quasi-decadal time scale, extratropical sea surface temperature and sea-ice, in addition to tropical variability, play a more important role. The stratosphere, which has been shown to influence interannual variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation in previous studies, has no significant influence on blocking according to our analysis