Analysis of the Assessment Factors for Energy Planning in Indonesia using Analytic Hierarchy Process

학위논문 (석사)-- 서울대학교 대학원 : 공과대학 협동과정 기술경영·경제·정책전공, 2018. 2. Heo Eunnyeong.꾸준한 경제성장과 높은 인구 증가에도 불구하고 인도네시아의 에너지계획 시스템 및 의사결정과정에 대한 포괄적인 연구가 지난 수십 년간 없었다. 이로 인하여 풍부한 자원을 가지고 있음에도 불구하고 증가하는 에너지 수요를 고려한 지속가능한 에너지 시스템을 만들지 못하고 높아지는 전력 부족 문제와 에너지 수입 의존도 상승에 대하여 대처할 수 없었다고 평가되고 있다. 본 논문에서는 의사결정계측(Analytic Hierarchy Process, AHP) 분석방법론을 이용하여 인도네시아의 에너지정책 결정과정을 구조적으로 분석하고자 한다. 이를 통하여 인도네시아의 에너지 계획 수립시 고려해야 할 다양한 평가 기준과 요인을 분석, 식별하고 우선순위를 확인하고자 한다. 본 논문에서는 인도네시아 정부의 에너지 담당부처 공무원 및 전문가를 대상으로 AHP 설문을 실시함으로써 정책과정에 참여하고 있는 실제 참여자를 대상으로 연구하였으며, 주요 에너지정책 요소들 역시 사전설문을 통하여 발굴하였다. 이러한 목표에 따라 연구는 2 단계로 진행하였다. 첫 번째 단계에서는 포괄적인 문헌 검토와 전문가 설문을 통하여 다섯 분야의 주요기준을 결정하고 에너지계획의 지표로 활용할 18 가지 요인을 설정하였다. 두 번째 단계에서는 전문가 의견 집계 절차로서 의사결정계층(Analytic Hierarchy Process)을 구현하고, 인도네시아 정부의 에너지 담당부처 공무원 및 전문가를 대상으로 설문을 실시하여 18개 요인들의 중요도를 평가하고 에너지계획 시스템을 위한 통합 평가를 실시하였다. 가중치 추정 결과에서 인도네시아의 에너지정책 의사결정과정에 6대 주요 요소가 있음을 확인하였으며, 여섯 가지 주요 요소 중 에너지자원 요소가 실질적인 역할을 함을 확인할 수 있었다. 또한 재생에너지 분야 전문가들의 의사결정구조가 석유 및 가스 등 기존 주력에너지원 분야 전문가들의 의사결정구조와 다르다는 것을 밝혔다. 본 논문에서는 이들을 포함하여 네 가지 결론을 도출하였다. 본 논문은 인도네시아 최초로 에너지정책 수립시스템을 구조적으로 분석하였으며, 이를 통하여 인도네시아의 에너지정책 수립과정에 시사점을 줄 수 있을 것으로 기대한다.Due to the absence of comprehensive decision-making process in Indonesias energy planning system, thus for the past decades Indonesia hasnt been able to provide sufficient and sustainable energy scenario to fulfill its energy demand caused by strong economic growth, high population level and increasing standards of living. Despite of abundant endogenous energy resources, Indonesia hasnt been able to cope with the issue of electricity shortage and high dependency on energy imports. In this regard, this research aims to analyze, identify and rank various assessment criteria and factors that should be taken into account for energy planning in Indonesia. This research used two-phase methodology. In the first phase a comprehensive literature review and experts inputs were used to identify five key dimensions of criteria and eighteen factors that considered as important indicators for energy planning. In second phase, as the procedure for the aggregation of expert opinions, Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) was implemented to rank the importance of each criterion and factor to develop an integrated assessment framework for energy planning system. From the weights estimation results, the most important criterion for energy planning in Indonesia is the energy resources criterion. Furthermore there are six highly important factors that should be taken into account for energy planning in Indonesia: pollutant and emission, resources durability, resources availability, volatility of energy prices, noise, and distance to user.1. Introduction 1 1.1 Motivation 1 1.2 Research Objective 3 1.3 Thesis Outline 7 2. Research Background 10 2.1  Indonesias Energy Resources and Potential 10 2.1.1 Oil Resources and Potential 11 2.1.2 Natural Gas Resources and Potential 14 2.1.3 Coal Resources and Potential 16 2.1.4 Resources and Potential of Geothermal Energy 18 2.1.5 Potential of Hydropower Energy 20 2.1.6 Potential of Solar Energy 22 2.1.7 Potential of Wind Energy 25 2.2  Major Challenges in Indonesias Energy Sector 27 2.2.1 Energy Resources as Export Commodities 29 2.2.2 Depleted Oil Reserves 30 2.2.3 Limited Energy Access and Infrastructure 31 2.2.4 Import Dependence on Fuel Oil and LPG 33 2.2.5 Renewable Energy Resources versus Fossil Fuels 34 2.2.6 Unexplored Potential of Renewable Energy 36 2.2.7 Low Awareness of Energy Conservation 38 2.3 Indonesias Future Energy Scenario 40 3. Literature Review 45 3.1  Multi Criteria Decision Analysis 45 3.1.1 Introduction 46 3.1.2 Why Analytic Hierarchy Process? 51 3.2  Previous Studies 55 3.3  Important Criteria and Factors in Energy Planning 63 4. Methodology 67 4.1 Analytic Hierarchy Process 67 4.2 Methodological Framework 77 4.3 Survey on AHP Pairwise Comparisons 87 5. Results and Discussion 90 5.1 Empirical Results 90 5.1.1 Consistency Analysis 90 5.1.2 Estimated Weights of Criteria 91 5.1.3 Estimated Weights of Factors 93 5.1.4 Results of Global Priorities 99 5.2 Results Discussion 102 5.2.1 Discussion for Local Priorities 102 5.2.2 Discussion for Global Priorities 107 5.2.3 Comparative Analysis 110 6. Conclusions 117 6.1 Overall Conclusions 117 6.2 Study Limitations and Scope for Future Work 121 Appendices References Abstract in Korean LanguageMaste

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