Application of machine learning techniques to weather forecasting

Weather forecasting is, still today, a human based activity. Although computer simulations play a major role in modelling the state and evolution of the atmosphere, there is a lack of methodologies to automate the interpretation of the information generated by these models. This doctoral thesis explores the use of machine learning methodologies to solve specific problems in meteorology and particularly focuses on the exploration of methodologies to improve the accuracy of numerical weather prediction models using machine learning. The work presented in this manuscript contains two different approaches using machine learning. In the first part, classical methodologies, such as multivariate non-parametric regression and binary trees are explored to perform regression on meteorological data. In this first part, we particularly focus on forecasting wind, where the circular nature of this variable opens interesting challenges for classic machine learning algorithms and techniques. The second part of this thesis, explores the analysis of weather data as a generic structured prediction problem using deep neural networks. Neural networks, such as convolutional and recurrent networks provide a method for capturing the spatial and temporal structure inherent in weather prediction models. This part explores the potential of deep convolutional neural networks in solving difficult problems in meteorology, such as modelling precipitation from basic numerical model fields. The research performed during the completion of this thesis demonstrates that collaboration between the machine learning and meteorology research communities is mutually beneficial and leads to advances in both disciplines. Weather forecasting models and observational data represent unique examples of large (petabytes), structured and high-quality data sets, that the machine learning community demands for developing the next generation of scalable algorithms

On the History and Prospects of Three-Dimensional Human-Computer Interfaces for the provision of Air Traffic Control Services

This paper is an essay on the history and prospects of three-dimensional (3D) human- computer interfaces for the provision of air traffic control services. Over the past twenty-five years, many empirical studies have addressed this topic. However, the results have been deemed incoherent and self-contradictory and no common conclusion has been reached. To escape from the deadlock of the experimental approach, this study takes a step back into the conceptual development of 3D interfaces, addressing the fundamental benefits and drawbacks of 3D rendering. Under this light, many results in the literature start to make sense and some conclusions can be drawn. Also, with an emphasis on the future of air traffic control, this research identifies a set of tasks wherein the intrinsic weaknesses of 3D rendering can be minimized and its advantages can be exploited. These are the ones that do not require accurate estimates of distances or angles. For future developments in the field of 3D interfaces for air traffic control operators, we suggest focusing on those tasks only

Aerospace Medicine and Biology: A continuing bibliography with indexes (supplement 314)

This bibliography lists 139 reports, articles, and other documents introduced into the NASA scientific and technical information system in August, 1988

Effects of Stereoscopic 3D Digital Radar Displays on Air Traffic Controller Performance

Air traffic controllers are responsible for directing air traffic based upon decisions made from traffic activity depicted on 2Dimensional (2D) radar displays. Controllers must identify aircraft and detect potential conflicts while simultaneously developing and executing plans of action to ensure safe separation is maintained. With a nearly 100% increase in traffic expected within the next decade (FAA, 2012a), controllers\u27 abilities to rapidly interpret spacing and maintain awareness for longer durations with increased workload will become increasingly imperative to safety. The current display design spatially depicts an aircraft\u27s position relative to the controller\u27s airspace as well as speed, altitude, and direction in textual form which requires deciphering and arithmetic to determine vertical separation. Since vertical separation is as imperative to flight safety as lateral separation, affording the controller an intuitive design for determining spacing without mental model creation is critical to reducing controller workload, and increasing awareness and efficiency. To examine this potential, a stereoscopic radar workstation simulator was developed and field-tested with 35 USAF controllers. It presented a view similar to traditional radar displays, (i.e. top-down), however, it depicted altitude through the use of 3D stereoscopic disparity, permitting vertical separation to be visually represented

Localizing Polygonal Objects in Man-Made Environments

Object detection is a significant challenge in Computer Vision and has received a lot of attention in the field. One such challenge addressed in this thesis is the detection of polygonal objects, which are prevalent in man-made environments. Shape analysis is an important cue to detect these objects. We propose a contour-based object detection framework to deal with the related challenges, including how to efficiently detect polygonal shapes and how to exploit them for object detection. First, we propose an efficient component tree segmentation framework for stable region extraction and a multi-resolution line segment detection algorithm, which form the bases of our detection framework. Our component tree segmentation algorithm explores the optimal threshold for each branch of the component tree, and achieves a significant improvement over image thresholding segmentation, and comparable performance to more sophisticated methods but only at a fraction of computation time. Our line segment detector overcomes several inherent limitations of the Hough transform, and achieves a comparable performance to the state-of-the-art line segment detectors. However, our approach can better capture dominant structures and is more stable against low-quality imaging conditions. Second, we propose a global shape analysis measurement for simple polygon detection and use it to develop an approach for real-time landing site detection in unconstrained man-made environments. Since the task of detecting landing sites must be performed in a few seconds or less, existing methods are often limited to simple local intensity and edge variation cues. By contrast, we show how to efficiently take into account the potential sitesâ global shape, which is a critical cue in man-made scenes. Our method relies on component tree segmentation algorithm and a new shape regularity measure to look for polygonal regions in video sequences. In this way we enforce both temporal consistency and geometric regularity, resulting in reliable and consistent detections. Third, we propose a generic contour grouping based object detection approach by exploring promising cycles in a line fragment graph. Previous contour-based methods are limited to use additive scoring functions. In this thesis, we propose an approximate search approach that eliminates this restriction. Given a weighted line fragment graph, we prune its cycle space by removing cycles containing weak nodes or weak edges, until the upper bound of the cycle space is less than the threshold defined by the cyclomatic number. Object contours are then detected as maximally scoring elementary circuits in the pruned cycle space. Furthermore, we propose another more efficient algorithm, which reconstructs the graph by grouping the strongest edges iteratively until the number of the cycles reaches the upper bound. Our approximate search approaches can be used with any cycle scoring function. Moreover, unlike other contour grouping based approaches, our approach does not rely on a greedy strategy for finding multiple candidates and is capable of finding multiple candidates sharing common line fragments. We demonstrate that our approach significantly outperforms the state-of-the-art

Application of machine learning techniques to weather forecasting

84 p.El pronóstico del tiempo es, incluso hoy en día, una actividad realizada principalmente por humanos. Si bien las simulaciones por computadora desempeñan un papel importante en el modelado del estado y la evolución de la atmósfera, faltan metodologías para automatizar la interpretación de la información generada por estos modelos. Esta tesis doctoral explora el uso de metodologías de aprendizaje automático para resolver problemas específicos en meteorología y haciendo especial énfasis en la exploración de metodologías para mejorar la precisión de los modelos numéricos de predicción del tiempo. El trabajo presentado en este manuscrito comprende dos enfoques diferentes a la aplicación de algoritmos de aprendizaje automático a problemas de predicción meteorológica. En la primera parte, las metodologías clásicas, como la regresión multivariada no paramétrica y los árboles binarios, se utilizan para realizar regresiones en datos meteorológicos. Esta primera parte, está centrada particularmente en el pronóstico del viento, cuya naturaleza circular crea desafíos interesantes para los algoritmos clásicos de aprendizaje automático. La segunda parte de esta tesis explora el análisis de los datos meteorológicos como un problema de predicción estructurado genérico utilizando redes neuronales profundas. Las redes neuronales, como las redes convolucionales y recurrentes, proporcionan un método para capturar la estructura espacial y temporal inherente en los modelos de predicción del tiempo. Esta parte explora el potencial de las redes neuronales convolucionales profundas para resolver problemas difíciles en meteorología, como el modelado de la precipitación a partir de campos de modelos numéricos básicos. La investigación que sustenta esta tesis sirve como un ejemplo de cómo la colaboración entre las comunidades de aprendizaje automático y meteorología puede resultar mutuamente beneficiosa y conducir a avances en ambas disciplinas. Los modelos de pronóstico del tiempo y los datos de observación representan ejemplos únicos de conjuntos de datos grandes (petabytes), estructurados y de alta calidad, que la comunidad de aprendizaje automático exige para desarrollar la próxima generación de algoritmos escalables

Perspectives on adaptive dynamical systems

Adaptivity is a dynamical feature that is omnipresent in nature, socio-economics, and technology. For example, adaptive couplings appear in various real-world systems like the power grid, social, and neural networks, and they form the backbone of closed-loop control strategies and machine learning algorithms. In this article, we provide an interdisciplinary perspective on adaptive systems. We reflect on the notion and terminology of adaptivity in different disciplines and discuss which role adaptivity plays for various fields. We highlight common open challenges, and give perspectives on future research directions, looking to inspire interdisciplinary approaches.Comment: 46 pages, 9 figure

Towards gestural understanding for intelligent robots

Fritsch JN. Towards gestural understanding for intelligent robots. Bielefeld: Universität Bielefeld; 2012.A strong driving force of scientific progress in the technical sciences is the quest for systems that assist humans in their daily life and make their life easier and more enjoyable. Nowadays smartphones are probably the most typical instances of such systems. Another class of systems that is getting increasing attention are intelligent robots. Instead of offering a smartphone touch screen to select actions, these systems are intended to offer a more natural human-machine interface to their users. Out of the large range of actions performed by humans, gestures performed with the hands play a very important role especially when humans interact with their direct surrounding like, e.g., pointing to an object or manipulating it. Consequently, a robot has to understand such gestures to offer an intuitive interface. Gestural understanding is, therefore, a key capability on the way to intelligent robots. This book deals with vision-based approaches for gestural understanding. Over the past two decades, this has been an intensive field of research which has resulted in a variety of algorithms to analyze human hand motions. Following a categorization of different gesture types and a review of other sensing techniques, the design of vision systems that achieve hand gesture understanding for intelligent robots is analyzed. For each of the individual algorithmic steps – hand detection, hand tracking, and trajectory-based gesture recognition – a separate Chapter introduces common techniques and algorithms and provides example methods. The resulting recognition algorithms are considering gestures in isolation and are often not sufficient for interacting with a robot who can only understand such gestures when incorporating the context like, e.g., what object was pointed at or manipulated. Going beyond a purely trajectory-based gesture recognition by incorporating context is an important prerequisite to achieve gesture understanding and is addressed explicitly in a separate Chapter of this book. Two types of context, user-provided context and situational context, are reviewed and existing approaches to incorporate context for gestural understanding are reviewed. Example approaches for both context types provide a deeper algorithmic insight into this field of research. An overview of recent robots capable of gesture recognition and understanding summarizes the currently realized human-robot interaction quality. The approaches for gesture understanding covered in this book are manually designed while humans learn to recognize gestures automatically during growing up. Promising research targeted at analyzing developmental learning in children in order to mimic this capability in technical systems is highlighted in the last Chapter completing this book as this research direction may be highly influential for creating future gesture understanding systems