Dual estimation: Constructing building energy models from data sampled at low rate

AbstractEstimation of energy models from data is an important part of advanced fault detection and diagnosis tools for smart energy purposes. Estimated energy models can be used for a large variety of management and control tasks, spanning from model predictive building control to estimation of energy consumption and user behavior. In practical implementation, problems to be considered are the fact that some measurements of relevance are missing and must be estimated, and the fact that other measurements, collected at low sampling rate to save memory, make discretization of physics-based models critical. These problems make classical estimation tools inadequate and call for appropriate dual estimation schemes where states and parameters of a system are estimated simultaneously. In this work we develop dual estimation schemes based on Extended Kalman Filtering (EKF) and Unscented Kalman Filtering (UKF) for constructing building energy models from data: in order to cope with the low sampling rate of data (with sampling time 15min), an implicit discretization (Euler backward method) is adopted to discretize the continuous-time heat transfer dynamics. It is shown that explicit discretization methods like the Euler forward method, combined with 15min sampling time, are ineffective for building reliable energy models (the discrete-time dynamics do not match the continuous-time ones): even explicit methods of higher order like the Runge–Kutta method fail to provide a good approximation of the continuous-time dynamics which such large sampling time. Either smaller time steps or alternative discretization methods are required. We verify that the implicit Euler backward method provides good approximation of the continuous-time dynamics and can be easily implemented for our dual estimation purposes. The applicability of the proposed method in terms of estimation of both states and parameters is demonstrated via simulations and using historical data from a real-life building

Composite Disturbance Filtering: A Novel State Estimation Scheme for Systems With Multi-Source, Heterogeneous, and Isomeric Disturbances

State estimation has long been a fundamental problem in signal processing and control areas. The main challenge is to design filters with ability to reject or attenuate various disturbances. With the arrival of big data era, the disturbances of complicated systems are physically multi-source, mathematically heterogenous, affecting the system dynamics via isomeric (additive, multiplicative and recessive) channels, and deeply coupled with each other. In traditional filtering schemes, the multi-source heterogenous disturbances are usually simplified as a lumped one so that the "single" disturbance can be either rejected or attenuated. Since the pioneering work in 2012, a novel state estimation methodology called {\it composite disturbance filtering} (CDF) has been proposed, which deals with the multi-source, heterogenous, and isomeric disturbances based on their specific characteristics. With the CDF, enhanced anti-disturbance capability can be achieved via refined quantification, effective separation, and simultaneous rejection and attenuation of the disturbances. In this paper, an overview of the CDF scheme is provided, which includes the basic principle, general design procedure, application scenarios (e.g. alignment, localization and navigation), and future research directions. In summary, it is expected that the CDF offers an effective tool for state estimation, especially in the presence of multi-source heterogeneous disturbances

Development of a Prognostic Method for the Production of Undeclared Enriched Uranium

As global demand for nuclear energy and threats to nuclear security increase, the need for verification of the peaceful application of nuclear materials and technology also rises. In accordance with the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, the International Atomic Energy Agency is tasked with verification of the declared enrichment activities of member states. Due to the increased cost of inspection and verification of a globally growing nuclear energy industry, remote process monitoring has been proposed as part of a next-generation, information-driven safeguards program. To further enhance this safeguards approach, it is proposed that process monitoring data may be used to not only verify the past but to anticipate the future via prognostic analysis. While prognostic methods exist for health monitoring of physical processes, the literature is absent of methods to predict the outcome of decision-based events, such as the production of undeclared enriched uranium. This dissertation introduces a method to predict the time at which a significant quantity of unaccounted material is expected to be diverted during an enrichment process. This method utilizes a particle filter to model the data and provide a Type III (degradation-based) prognostic estimate of time to diversion of a significant quantity. Measurement noise for the particle filter is estimated using historical data and may be updated with Bayesian estimates from the analyzed data. Dynamic noise estimates are updated based on observed changes in process data. The reliability of the prognostic model for a given range of data is validated via information complexity scores and goodness of fit statistics. The developed prognostic method is tested using data produced from the Oak Ridge Mock Feed and Withdrawal Facility, a 1:100 scale test platform for developing gas centrifuge remote monitoring techniques. Four case studies are considered: no diversion, slow diversion, fast diversion, and intermittent diversion. All intervals of diversion and non-diversion were correctly identified and significant quantity diversion time was accurately estimated. A diversion of 0.8 kg over 85 minutes was detected after 10 minutes and predicted to be 84 minutes and 10 seconds after 46 minutes and 40 seconds with an uncertainty of 2 minutes and 52 seconds

Real-Time Monitoring and Fault Diagnostics in Roll-To-Roll Manufacturing Systems

A roll-to-roll (R2R) process is a manufacturing technique involving continuous processing of a flexible substrate as it is transferred between rotating rolls. It integrates many additive and subtractive processing techniques to produce rolls of product in an efficient and cost-effective way due to its high production rate and mass quantity. Therefore, the R2R processes have been increasingly implemented in a wide range of manufacturing industries, including traditional paper/fabric production, plastic and metal foil manufacturing, flexible electronics, thin film batteries, photovoltaics, graphene films production, etc. However, the increasing complexity of R2R processes and high demands on product quality have heightened the needs for effective real-time process monitoring and fault diagnosis in R2R manufacturing systems. This dissertation aims at developing tools to increase system visibility without additional sensors, in order to enhance real-time monitoring, and fault diagnosis capability in R2R manufacturing systems. First, a multistage modeling method is proposed for process monitoring and quality estimation in R2R processes. Product-centric and process-centric variation propagation are introduced to characterize variation propagation throughout the system. The multistage model mainly focuses on the formulation of process-centric variation propagation, which uniquely exists in R2R processes, and the corresponding product quality measurements with both physical knowledge and sensor data analysis. Second, a nonlinear analytical redundancy method is proposed for sensor validation to ensure the accuracy of sensor measurements for process and quality control. Parity relations based on nonlinear observation matrix are formulated to characterize system dynamics and sensor measurements. Robust optimization is designed to identify the coefficient of parity relations that can tolerate a certain level of measurement noise and system disturbances. The effect of the change of operating conditions on the value of the optimal objective function – parity residuals and the optimal design variables – parity coefficients are evaluated with sensitivity analysis. Finally, a multiple model approach for anomaly detection and fault diagnosis is introduced to improve the diagnosability under different operating regimes. The growing structure multiple model system (GSMMS) is employed, which utilizes Voronoi sets to automatically partition the entire operating space into smaller operating regimes. The local model identification problem is revised by formulating it into an optimization problem based on the loss minimization framework and solving with the mini-batch stochastic gradient descent method instead of least squares algorithms. This revision to the GSMMS method expands its capability to handle the local model identification problems that cannot be solved with a closed-form solution. The effectiveness of the models and methods are determined with testbed data from an R2R process. The results show that those proposed models and methods are effective tools to understand variation propagation in R2R processes and improve estimation accuracy of product quality by 70%, identify the health status of sensors promptly to guarantee data accuracy for modeling and decision making, and reduce false alarm rate and increase detection power under different operating conditions. Eventually, those tools developed in this thesis contribute to increase the visibility of R2R manufacturing systems, improve productivity and reduce product rejection rate.PHDMechanical EngineeringUniversity of Michigan, Horace H. Rackham School of Graduate Studieshttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/146114/1/huanyis_1.pd

PROBE-GK: Predictive Robust Estimation using Generalized Kernels

Many algorithms in computer vision and robotics make strong assumptions about uncertainty, and rely on the validity of these assumptions to produce accurate and consistent state estimates. In practice, dynamic environments may degrade sensor performance in predictable ways that cannot be captured with static uncertainty parameters. In this paper, we employ fast nonparametric Bayesian inference techniques to more accurately model sensor uncertainty. By setting a prior on observation uncertainty, we derive a predictive robust estimator, and show how our model can be learned from sample images, both with and without knowledge of the motion used to generate the data. We validate our approach through Monte Carlo simulations, and report significant improvements in localization accuracy relative to a fixed noise model in several settings, including on synthetic data, the KITTI dataset, and our own experimental platform.Comment: In Proceedings of the IEEE International Conference on Robotics and Automation (ICRA'16), Stockholm, Sweden, May 16-21, 201

Modeling and Estimation of Biological Plants

Estimating the state of a dynamic system is an essential task for achieving important objectives such as process monitoring, identification, and control. Unlike linear systems, no systematic method exists for the design of observers for nonlinear systems. Although many researchers have devoted their attention to these issues for more than 30 years, there are still many open questions. We envisage that estimation plays a crucial role in biology because of the possibility of creating new avenues for biological studies and for the development of diagnostic, management, and treatment tools. To this end, this thesis aims to address two types of nonlinear estimation techniques, namely, the high-gain observer and the moving-horizon estimator with application to three different biological plants. After recalling basic definitions of stability and observability of dynamical systems and giving a bird's-eye survey of the available state estimation techniques, we are interested in the high-gain observers. These observers may be used when the system dynamics can be expressed in specific a coordinate under the so-called observability canonical form with the possibility to assign the rate of convergence arbitrarily by acting on a single parameter called the high-gain parameter. Despite the evident benefits of this class of observers, their use in real applications is questionable due to some drawbacks: numerical problems, the peaking phenomenon, and high sensitivity to measurement noise. The first part of the thesis aims to enrich the theory of high-gain observers with novel techniques to overcome or attenuate these challenging performance issues that arise when implementing such observers. The validity and applicability of our proposed techniques have been shown firstly on a simple one-gene regulatory network, and secondly on an SI epidemic model. The second part of the thesis studies the problem of state estimation using the moving horizon approach. The main advantage of MHE is that information about the system can be explicitly considered in the form of constraints and hence improve the estimates. In this work, we focus on estimation for nonlinear plants that can be rewritten in the form of quasi-linear parameter-varying systems with bounded unknown parameters. Moving-horizon estimators are proposed to estimate the state of such systems according to two different formulations, i.e., "optimistic" and "pessimistic". In the former case, we perform estimation by minimizing the least-squares moving-horizon cost with respect to both state variables and parameters simultaneously. In the latter, we minimize such a cost with respect to the state variables after picking up the maximum of the parameters. Under suitable assumptions, the stability of the estimation error given by the exponential boundedness is proved in both scenarios. Finally, the validity of our obtained results has been demonstrated through three different examples from biological and biomedical fields, namely, an example of one gene regulatory network, a two-stage SI epidemic model, and Amnioserosa cell's mechanical behavior during Dorsal closure

An Integrated Approach to Performance Monitoring and Fault Diagnosis of Nuclear Power Systems

In this dissertation an integrated framework of process performance monitoring and fault diagnosis was developed for nuclear power systems using robust data driven model based methods, which comprises thermal hydraulic simulation, data driven modeling, identification of model uncertainty, and robust residual generator design for fault detection and isolation. In the applications to nuclear power systems, on the one hand, historical data are often not able to characterize the relationships among process variables because operating setpoints may change and thermal fluid components such as steam generators and heat exchangers may experience degradation. On the other hand, first-principle models always have uncertainty and are often too complicated in terms of model structure to design residual generators for fault diagnosis. Therefore, a realistic fault diagnosis method needs to combine the strength of first principle models in modeling a wide range of anticipated operation conditions and the strength of data driven modeling in feature extraction. In the developed robust data driven model-based approach, the changes in operation conditions are simulated using the first principle models and the model uncertainty is extracted from plant operation data such that the fault effects on process variables can be decoupled from model uncertainty and normal operation changes. It was found that the developed robust fault diagnosis method was able to eliminate false alarms due to model uncertainty and deal with changes in operating conditions throughout the lifetime of nuclear power systems. Multiple methods of robust data driven model based fault diagnosis were developed in this dissertation. A complete procedure based on causal graph theory and data reconciliation method was developed to investigate the causal relationships and the quantitative sensitivities among variables so that sensor placement could be optimized for fault diagnosis in the design phase. Reconstruction based Principal Component Analysis (PCA) approach was applied to deal with both simple faults and complex faults for steady state diagnosis in the context of operation scheduling and maintenance management. A robust PCA model-based method was developed to distinguish the differences between fault effects and model uncertainties. In order to improve the sensitivity of fault detection, a hybrid PCA model based approach was developed to incorporate system knowledge into data driven modeling. Subspace identification was proposed to extract state space models from thermal hydraulic simulations and a robust dynamic residual generator design algorithm was developed for fault diagnosis for the purpose of fault tolerant control and extension to reactor startup and load following operation conditions. The developed robust dynamic residual generator design algorithm is unique in that explicit identification of model uncertainty is not necessary. Finally, it was demonstrated that the developed new methods for the IRIS Helical Coil Steam Generator (HCSG) system. A simulation model was first developed for this system. It was revealed through steady state simulation that the primary coolant temperature profile could be used to indicate the water inventory inside the HCSG tubes. The performance monitoring and fault diagnosis module was then developed to monitor sensor faults, flow distribution abnormality, and heat performance degradation for both steady state and dynamic operation conditions. This dissertation bridges the gap between the theoretical research on computational intelligence and the engineering design in performance monitoring and fault diagnosis for nuclear power systems. The new algorithms have the potential of being integrated into the Generation III and Generation IV nuclear reactor I&C design after they are tested on current nuclear power plants or Generation IV prototype reactors

Past, Present, and Future of Simultaneous Localization And Mapping: Towards the Robust-Perception Age

Simultaneous Localization and Mapping (SLAM)consists in the concurrent construction of a model of the environment (the map), and the estimation of the state of the robot moving within it. The SLAM community has made astonishing progress over the last 30 years, enabling large-scale real-world applications, and witnessing a steady transition of this technology to industry. We survey the current state of SLAM. We start by presenting what is now the de-facto standard formulation for SLAM. We then review related work, covering a broad set of topics including robustness and scalability in long-term mapping, metric and semantic representations for mapping, theoretical performance guarantees, active SLAM and exploration, and other new frontiers. This paper simultaneously serves as a position paper and tutorial to those who are users of SLAM. By looking at the published research with a critical eye, we delineate open challenges and new research issues, that still deserve careful scientific investigation. The paper also contains the authors' take on two questions that often animate discussions during robotics conferences: Do robots need SLAM? and Is SLAM solved

A Contribution to the Design of Highly Redundant Compliant Aerial Manipulation Systems

Es ist vorhersehbar, dass die Luftmanipulatoren in den nächsten Jahrzehnten für viele Aufgaben eingesetzt werden, die entweder zu gefährlich oder zu teuer sind, um sie mit herkömmlichen Methoden zu bewältigen. In dieser Arbeit wird eine neuartige Lösung für die Gesamtsteuerung von hochredundanten Luftmanipulationssystemen vorgestellt. Die Ergebnisse werden auf eine Referenzkonfiguration angewendet, die als universelle Plattform für die Durchführung verschiedener Luftmanipulationsaufgaben etabliert wird. Diese Plattform besteht aus einer omnidirektionalen Drohne und einem seriellen Manipulator. Um den modularen Regelungsentwurf zu gewährleisten, werden zwei rechnerisch effiziente Algorithmen untersucht, um den virtuellen Eingang den Aktuatorbefehlen zuzuordnen. Durch die Integration eines auf einem künstlichen neuronalen Netz basierenden Diagnosemoduls und der rekonfigurierbaren Steuerungszuordnung in den Regelkreis, wird die Fehlertoleranz für die Drohne erzielt. Außerdem wird die Motorsättigung durch Rekonfiguration der Geschwindigkeits- und Beschleunigungsprofile behandelt. Für die Beobachtung der externen Kräfte und Drehmomente werden zwei Filter vorgestellt. Dies ist notwendig, um ein nachgiebiges Verhalten des Endeffektors durch die achsenselektive Impedanzregelung zu erreichen. Unter Ausnutzung der Redundanz des vorgestellten Luftmanipulators wird ein Regler entworfen, der nicht nur die Referenz der Endeffektor-Bewegung verfolgt, sondern auch priorisierte sekundäre Aufgaben ausführt. Die Wirksamkeit der vorgestellten Lösungen wird durch umfangreiche Tests überprüft, und das vorgestellte Steuerungssystem wird als sehr vielseitig und effektiv bewertet.:1 Introduction 2 Fundamentals 3 System Design and Modeling 4 Reconfigurable Control Allocation 5 Fault Diagnostics For Free Flight 6 Force and Torque Observer 7 Trajectory Generation 8 Hybrid Task Priority Control 9 System Integration and Performance Evaluation 10 ConclusionIn the following decades, aerial manipulators are expected to be deployed in scenarios that are either too dangerous for human beings or too expensive to be accomplished by traditional methods. This thesis presents a novel solution for the overall control of highly redundant aerial manipulation systems. The results are applied to a reference configuration established as a universal platform for performing various aerial manipulation tasks. The platform consists of an omnidirectional multirotor UAV and a serial manipulator. To ensure modular control design, two computationally efficient algorithms are studied to allocate the virtual input to actuator commands. Fault tolerance of the aerial vehicle is achieved by integrating a diagnostic module based on an artificial neural network and the reconfigurable control allocation into the control loop. Besides, the risk of input saturation of individual rotors is minimized by predicting and reconfiguring the speed and acceleration responses. Two filter-based observers are presented to provide the knowledge of external forces and torques, which is necessary to achieve compliant behavior of the end-effector through an axis-selective impedance control in the outer loop. Exploiting the redundancy of the proposed aerial manipulator, the author has designed a control law to achieve the desired end-effector motion and execute secondary tasks in order of priority. The effectiveness of the proposed designs is verified with extensive tests generated by following Monte Carlo method, and the presented control scheme is proved to be versatile and effective.:1 Introduction 2 Fundamentals 3 System Design and Modeling 4 Reconfigurable Control Allocation 5 Fault Diagnostics For Free Flight 6 Force and Torque Observer 7 Trajectory Generation 8 Hybrid Task Priority Control 9 System Integration and Performance Evaluation 10 Conclusio

Detection and Location of Faults in Wide Area Systems based on Error-Dependent Communication Strategy

Transmission system serves as a crucial link between generating stations and consumers. Early detection and accurate location of faults on transmission lines are essential to prevent the occurrence of blackouts. Also real time monitoring of power system states during faults will enhance the situational awareness for power system operators. Wide Area Measurement and Protection Systems (WAMPS) based on Phasor Measurement Unit (PMU) are a promising solution for dynamic real time monitoring and protection of power system.;This thesis deals with detection and location of faults on a transmission system based on synchrophasor technology. Performance of WAMPS is largely dependent on the performance of its information and communication technologies infrastructure. Error-dependent communication strategy is employed in this work for communication of real time data from PMU to the centralized controller. As PMUs are expensive, they cannot be placed at every bus. Hence linear state estimator based on synchronized measurements is employed for estimating the state of the entire system. The estimated states of the system are then compared to a certain threshold and if any abnormality is found, fault is detected. Once the faulted bus is detected, two-terminal algorithm is employed to identify the exact location of fault. The proposed methodology is implemented on IEEE 9 bus system developed in MATLAB/SIMULINK environment