A Multi-Objective Memetic Optimization Method for Power Network Cascading Failures Protection

International audienceReliable and safe power grid operation requires the anticipation of cascading failures and the establishment of appropriate protection plans for their management. In this paper, we address this latter problem by line switching and propose a multi-objective memetic algorithm (MOMA), which combines the binary differential evolution algorithm with the non-dominated sorting mechanism and the Lamarckian local search. The 380 kV Italian power transmission network is used as a realistic test case

Modeling, Simulation, and Analysis of Cascading Outages in Power Systems

Interconnected power systems are prone to cascading outages leading to large-area blackouts. Modeling, simulation, analysis, and mitigation of cascading outages are still challenges for power system operators and planners.Firstly, the interaction model and interaction graph proposed by [27] are demonstrated on a realistic Northeastern Power Coordinating Council (NPCC) power system, identifying key links and components that contribute most to the propagation of cascading outages. Then a multi-layer interaction graph for analysis and mitigation of cascading outages is proposed. It provides a practical, comprehensive framework for prediction of outage propagation and decision making on mitigation strategies. It has multiple layers to respectively identify key links and components, which contribute the most to outage propagation. Based on the multi-layer interaction graph, effective mitigation strategies can be further developed. A three-layer interaction graph is constructed and demonstrated on the NPCC power system.Secondly, this thesis proposes a novel steady-state approach for simulating cascading outages. The approach employs a power flow-based model that considers static power-frequency characteristics of both generators and loads. Thus, the system frequency deviation can be calculated under cascading outages and control actions such as under-frequency load shedding can be simulated. Further, a new AC optimal power flow model considering frequency deviation (AC-OPFf) is proposed to simulate remedial control against system collapse. Case studies on the two-area, IEEE 39-bus, and NPCC power systems show that the proposed approach can more accurately capture the propagation of cascading outages when compared with a conventional approach using the conventional power flow and AC optimal power flow models.Thirdly, in order to reduce the potential risk caused by cascading outages, an online strategy of critical component-based active islanding is proposed. It is performed when any component belonging to a predefined set of critical components is involved in the propagation path. The set of critical components whose fail can cause large risk are identified based on the interaction graph. Test results on the NPCC power system show that the cascading outage risk can be reduced significantly by performing the proposed active islanding when compared with the risk of other scenarios without active islanding

Game Theory Meets Network Security: A Tutorial at ACM CCS

The increasingly pervasive connectivity of today's information systems brings up new challenges to security. Traditional security has accomplished a long way toward protecting well-defined goals such as confidentiality, integrity, availability, and authenticity. However, with the growing sophistication of the attacks and the complexity of the system, the protection using traditional methods could be cost-prohibitive. A new perspective and a new theoretical foundation are needed to understand security from a strategic and decision-making perspective. Game theory provides a natural framework to capture the adversarial and defensive interactions between an attacker and a defender. It provides a quantitative assessment of security, prediction of security outcomes, and a mechanism design tool that can enable security-by-design and reverse the attacker's advantage. This tutorial provides an overview of diverse methodologies from game theory that includes games of incomplete information, dynamic games, mechanism design theory to offer a modern theoretic underpinning of a science of cybersecurity. The tutorial will also discuss open problems and research challenges that the CCS community can address and contribute with an objective to build a multidisciplinary bridge between cybersecurity, economics, game and decision theory

Threat Assessment for Multistage Cyber Attacks in Smart Grid Communication Networks

In smart grids, managing and controlling power operations are supported by information and communication technology (ICT) and supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) systems. The increasing adoption of new ICT assets in smart grids is making smart grids vulnerable to cyber threats, as well as raising numerous concerns about the adequacy of current security approaches. As a single act of penetration is often not sufficient for an attacker to achieve his/her goal, multistage cyber attacks may occur. Due to the interdependence between the power grid and the communication network, a multistage cyber attack not only affects the cyber system but impacts the physical system. This thesis investigates an application-oriented stochastic game-theoretic cyber threat assessment framework, which is strongly related to the information security risk management process as standardized in ISO/IEC 27005. The proposed cyber threat assessment framework seeks to address the specific challenges (e.g., dynamic changing attack scenarios and understanding cascading effects) when performing threat assessments for multistage cyber attacks in smart grid communication networks. The thesis looks at the stochastic and dynamic nature of multistage cyber attacks in smart grid use cases and develops a stochastic game-theoretic model to capture the interactions of the attacker and the defender in multistage attack scenarios. To provide a flexible and practical payoff formulation for the designed stochastic game-theoretic model, this thesis presents a mathematical analysis of cascading failure propagation (including both interdependency cascading failure propagation and node overloading cascading failure propagation) in smart grids. In addition, the thesis quantifies the characterizations of disruptive effects of cyber attacks on physical power grids. Furthermore, this thesis discusses, in detail, the ingredients of the developed stochastic game-theoretic model and presents the implementation steps of the investigated stochastic game-theoretic cyber threat assessment framework. An application of the proposed cyber threat assessment framework for evaluating a demonstrated multistage cyber attack scenario in smart grids is shown. The cyber threat assessment framework can be integrated into an existing risk management process, such as ISO 27000, or applied as a standalone threat assessment process in smart grid use cases

The Effects of Modularity on Cascading Failures in Complex Engineering Systems

To design engineering systems that have improved reliability, it is important to understand what kind of system faults they will be susceptible to. Mitigation strategies are important to ensuring the performance of these engineering systems. Understanding how the modularity of complex engineering systems affects the risk of devastating failures such as cascading failures can help enable engineers to implement strategies in the design phase to increase reliability. The extent to which decreased system modularity propagates the spread of a cascading failure is unknown. This study analyzes how modularity in complex engineering systems affects resistance to the spread of cascading failures. In this research, synthetic networks are used to represent component models at differing degrees of modularity. These synthetic networks are then infected through epidemic spreading models that model cascading failures. The loss of functionality is determined by the percent of diseased nodes in the system, and the influence of the initial node is measured by eigenvector centrality. Increased modularity is associated with the improved ability of a system to inhibit the propagation of cascading failures over time through failure isolation within a module, measured by percent infected in the system, in comparison to less modular systems (p < 0.001). This finding indicates that the structural design of complex engineering systems could be crucial to increasing reliability in design with reference to cascading failures. Key Words: Complex engineering systems, modularity, cascading failure

Protection des Infrastructures Essentielles par Advanced Modélisation, simulation et optimisation pour l’atténuation et résilience de défaillance en cascade

Continuously increasing complexity and interconnectedness of modern critical infrastructures, together with increasingly complex risk environments, pose unique challenges for their secure, reliable, and efficient operation. The focus of the present dissertation is on the modelling, simulation and optimization of critical infrastructures (CIs) (e.g., power transmission networks) with respect to their vulnerability and resilience to cascading failures. This study approaches the problem by firstly modelling CIs at a fundamental level, by focusing on network topology and physical flow patterns within the CIs. A hierarchical network modelling technique is introduced for the management of system complexity. Within these modelling frameworks, advanced optimization techniques (e.g., non-dominated sorting binary differential evolution (NSBDE) algorithm) are utilized to maximize both the robustness and resilience (recovery capacity) of CIs against cascading failures. Specifically, the first problem is taken from a holistic system design perspective, i.e. some system properties, such as its topology and link capacities, are redesigned in an optimal way in order to enhance system’s capacity of resisting to systemic failures. Both topological and physical cascading failure models are applied and their corresponding results are compared. With respect to the second problem, a novel framework is proposed for optimally selecting proper recovery actions in order to maximize the capacity of the CI network of recovery from a disruptive event. A heuristic, computationally cheap optimization algorithm is proposed for the solution of the problem, by integrating foundemental concepts from network flows and project scheduling. Examples of analysis are carried out by referring to several realistic CI systems.Sans cesse croissante complexité et l'interdépendance des infrastructures critiques modernes, avec des environs de risque plus en plus complexes, posent des défis uniques pour leur exploitation sûre, fiable et efficace. L'objectif de la présente thèse est sur la modélisation, la simulation et l'optimisation des infrastructures critiques (par exemple, les réseaux de transmission de puissance) à l'égard de leur vulnérabilité et la résilience aux défaillances en cascade. Cette étude aborde le problème en modélisant infrastructures critiques à un niveau fondamental, en se concentrant sur la topologie du réseau et des modèles de flux physiques dans les infrastructures critiques. Un cadre de modélisation hiérarchique est introduit pour la gestion de la complexité du système. Au sein de ces cadres de modélisation, les techniques d'optimisation avancées (par exemple, non-dominée de tri binaire évolution différentielle (NSBDE) algorithme) sont utilisés pour maximiser à la fois la robustesse et la résilience (capacité de récupération) des infrastructures critiques contre les défaillances en cascade. Plus précisément, le premier problème est pris à partir d'un point de vue de la conception du système holistique, c'est-à-dire certaines propriétés du système, tels que ses capacités de topologie et de liaison, sont redessiné de manière optimale afin d'améliorer la capacité de résister à des défaillances systémiques de système. Les deux modèles de défaillance en cascade topologiques et physiques sont appliquées et leurs résultats correspondants sont comparés. En ce qui concerne le deuxième problème, un nouveau cadre est proposé pour la sélection optimale des mesures appropriées de récupération afin de maximiser la capacité du réseau d’infrastructure critique de récupération à partir d'un événement perturbateur. Un algorithme d'optimisation de calcul pas cher heuristique est proposé pour la solution du problème, en intégrant des concepts fondamentaux de flux de réseau et le calendrier du projet. Exemples d'analyse sont effectués en se référant à plusieurs systèmes de CI réalistes

Analysis of new control applications

This document reports the results of the activities performed during the first year of the CRUTIAL project, within the Work Package 1 "Identification and description of Control System Scenarios". It represents the outcome of the analysis of new control applications in the Power System and the identification of critical control system scenarios to be explored by the CRUTIAL project