ALPACAS: A Language for Parametric Assessment of Critical Architecture Safety

This paper introduces Alpacas, a domain-specific language and algorithms aimed at architecture modeling and safety assessment for critical systems. It allows to study the effects of random and systematic faults on complex critical systems and their reliability. The underlying semantic framework of the language is Stochastic Guarded Transition Systems, for which Alpacas provides a feature-rich declarative modeling language and algorithms for symbolic analysis and Monte-Carlo simulation, allowing to compute safety indicators such as minimal cutsets and reliability. Built as a domain-specific language deeply embedded in Scala 3, Alpacas offers generic modeling capabilities and type-safety unparalleled in other existing safety assessment frameworks. This improved expressive power allows to address complex system modeling tasks, such as formalizing the architectural design space of a critical function, and exploring it to identify the most reliable variant. The features and algorithms of Alpacas are illustrated on a case study of a thrust allocation and power dispatch system for an electric vertical takeoff and landing aircraft

Model-connected safety cases

Regulatory authorities require justification that safety-critical systems exhibit acceptable levels of safety. Safety cases are traditionally documents which allow the exchange of information between stakeholders and communicate the rationale of how safety is achieved via a clear, convincing and comprehensive argument and its supporting evidence. In the automotive and aviation industries, safety cases have a critical role in the certification process and their maintenance is required throughout a system’s lifecycle. Safety-case-based certification is typically handled manually and the increase in scale and complexity of modern systems renders it impractical and error prone.Several contemporary safety standards have adopted a safety-related framework that revolves around a concept of generic safety requirements, known as Safety Integrity Levels (SILs). Following these guidelines, safety can be justified through satisfaction of SILs. Careful examination of these standards suggests that despite the noticeable differences, there are converging aspects. This thesis elicits the common elements found in safety standards and defines a pattern for the development of safety cases for cross-sector application. It also establishes a metamodel that connects parts of the safety case with the target system architecture and model-based safety analysis methods. This enables the semi- automatic construction and maintenance of safety arguments that help mitigate problems related to manual approaches. Specifically, the proposed metamodel incorporates system modelling, failure information, model-based safety analysis and optimisation techniques to allocate requirements in the form of SILs. The system architecture and the allocated requirements along with a user-defined safety argument pattern, which describes the target argument structure, enable the instantiation algorithm to automatically generate the corresponding safety argument. The idea behind model-connected safety cases stemmed from a critical literature review on safety standards and practices related to safety cases. The thesis presents the method, and implemented framework, in detail and showcases the different phases and outcomes via a simple example. It then applies the method on a case study based on the Boeing 787’s brake system and evaluates the resulting argument against certain criteria, such as scalability. Finally, contributions compared to traditional approaches are laid out

Generation of model-based safety arguments from automatically allocated safety integrity levels

To certify safety-critical systems, assurance arguments linking evidence of safety to appropriate requirements must be constructed. However, modern safety-critical systems feature increasing complexity and integration, which render manual approaches impractical to apply. This thesis addresses this problem by introducing a model-based method, with an exemplary application based on the aerospace domain.Previous work has partially addressed this problem for slightly different applications, including verification-based, COTS, product-line and process-based assurance. Each of the approaches is applicable to a specialised case and does not deliver a solution applicable to a generic system in a top-down process. This thesis argues that such a solution is feasible and can be achieved based on the automatic allocation of safety requirements onto a system’s architecture. This automatic allocation is a recent development which combines model-based safety analysis and optimisation techniques. The proposed approach emphasises the use of model-based safety analysis, such as HiP-HOPS, to maximise the benefits towards the system development lifecycle.The thesis investigates the background and earlier work regarding construction of safety arguments, safety requirements allocation and optimisation. A method for addressing the problem of optimal safety requirements allocation is first introduced, using the Tabu Search optimisation metaheuristic. The method delivers satisfactory results that are further exploited for construction of safety arguments. Using the produced requirements allocation, an instantiation algorithm is applied onto a generic safety argument pattern, which is compliant with standards, to automatically construct an argument establishing a claim that a system’s safety requirements have been met. This argument is hierarchically decomposed and shows how system and subsystem safety requirements are satisfied by architectures and analyses at low levels of decomposition. Evaluation on two abstract case studies demonstrates the feasibility and scalability of the method and indicates good performance of the algorithms proposed. Limitations and potential areas of further investigation are identified

Safety Analysis Concept and Methodology for EDDI development (Initial Version)

Executive Summary:This deliverable describes the proposed safety analysis concept and accompanying methodology to be defined in the SESAME project. Three overarching challenges to the development of safe and secure multi-robot systems are identified — complexity, intelligence, and autonomy — and in each case, we review state-of-the-art techniques that can be used to address them and explain how we intend to integrate them as part of the key SESAME safety and security concept, the EDDI.The challenge of complexity is largely addressed by means of compositional model-based safety analysis techniques that can break down the complexity into more manageable parts. This applies both to scale — modelling systems hierarchically and embedding local failure logic at the component-level — and to tasks, where different safety-related tasks (including not just analysis but also requirements allocation and assurance case generation) can be handled by the same set of models. All of this can be combined with the existing DDI concept to create models — EDDIs — that store all of the necessary information to support a gamut of design-time safety processes.Against the challenge of intelligence, we propose a trio of techniques: SafeML and Uncertainty Wrappers for estimating the confidence of a given classification, which can be used as a form of reliability measure, and SMILE for explainability purposes. By enabling us to measure and explain the reliability of ML decision making, we can integrate ML behaviour as part of a wider system safety model, e.g. as one input into a fault tree or Bayesian network. In addition to providing valuable feedback during training, testing, and verification, this allows the EDDI to perform runtime safety monitoring of ML components.The EDDI itself is therefore our primary solution to the twin challenges of autonomy and openness. Using the ConSert approach as a foundation, EDDIs can be made to operate cooperatively as part of a distributed system, issuing and receiving guarantees on the basis of their internal executable safety models to collectively achieve tasks in a safe and secure manner. Finally, a simple methodology is defined to show how the relevant techniques can be applied as part of the EDDI concept throughout the safety development lifecycle

Formal transformation methods for automated fault tree generation from UML diagrams

With a growing complexity in safety critical systems, engaging Systems Engineering with System Safety Engineering as early as possible in the system life cycle becomes ever more important to ensure system safety during system development. Assessing the safety and reliability of system architectural design at the early stage of the system life cycle can bring value to system design by identifying safety issues earlier and maintaining safety traceability throughout the design phase. However, this is not a trivial task and can require upfront investment. Automated transformation from system architecture models to system safety and reliability models offers a potential solution. However, existing methods lack of formal basis. This can potentially lead to unreliable results. Without a formal basis, Fault Tree Analysis of a system, for example, even if performed concurrently with system design may not ensure all safety critical aspects of the design. [Continues.]</div

Problem Oriented Engineering for Software Safety

Safety critical systems must satisfy stringent safety standards and there development requires the use of specialist safe software system development (SSSD) approaches as the complexity and penetration of these systems increases. These SSSD approaches satisfy certain useful properties that make them suitable for safety system development. The first objective of this thesis is to select a candidate SSSD approach and evaluate its capabilities against a set of useful properties identified from reviewing a group of existing SSSD approaches, and thus show that this candidate SSSD approach is appropriate for use in safety system development. In addition, a second objective is to use this candidate SSSD approach to improve the early life cycle phase of an existing industrial safety development process used to develop embedded avionics applications. In particular to allow issues to be resolved earlier in the development, which are currently not being uncovered until much later in the development when they are much more difficult and expensive to correct. This involved the identification of further properties and issues that the candidate SSSD approach must address. The overall aim is to demonstrate that this candidate SSSD approach can be used in the early phase of a safety system development to derive a validated specification that can be subjected to safety analysis to show that it satisfies the identified system safety properties and thus forms a viable basis for the rest of the development

Modélisation conjointe de la sûreté et de la sécurité pour l’évaluation des risques dans les systèmes cyber-physiques

Cyber physical systems (CPS) denote systems that embed programmable components in order to control a physical process or infrastructure. CPS are henceforth widely used in different industries like energy, aeronautics, automotive, medical or chemical industry. Among the variety of existing CPS stand SCADA (Supervisory Control And Data Acquisition) systems that offer the necessary means to control and supervise critical infrastructures. Their failure or malfunction can engender adverse consequences on the system and its environment.SCADA systems used to be isolated and based on simple components and proprietary standards. They are nowadays increasingly integrating information and communication technologies (ICT) in order to facilitate supervision and control of the industrial process and to reduce exploitation costs. This trend induces more complexity in SCADA systems and exposes them to cyber-attacks that exploit vulnerabilities already existent in the ICT components. Such attacks can reach some critical components within the system and alter its functioning causing safety harms.We associate throughout this dissertation safety with accidental risks originating from the system and security with malicious risks with a focus on cyber-attacks. In this context of industrial systems supervised by new SCADA systems, safety and security requirements and risks converge and can have mutual interactions. A joint risk analysis covering both safety and security aspects would be necessary to identify these interactions and optimize the risk management.In this thesis, we give first a comprehensive survey of existing approaches considering both safety and security issues for industrial systems, and highlight their shortcomings according to the four following criteria that we believe essential for a good model-based approach: formal, automatic, qualitative and quantitative and robust (i.e. easily integrates changes on system into the model).Next, we propose a new model-based approach for a safety and security joint risk analysis: S-cube (SCADA Safety and Security modeling), that satisfies all the above criteria. The S-cube approach enables to formally model CPS and yields the associated qualitative and quantitative risk analysis. Thanks to graphical modeling, S-cube enables to input the system architecture and to easily consider different hypothesis about it. It enables next to automatically generate safety and security risk scenarios likely to happen on this architecture and that lead to a given undesirable event, with an estimation of their probabilities.The S-cube approach is based on a knowledge base that describes the typical components of industrial architectures encompassing information, process control and instrumentation levels. This knowledge base has been built upon a taxonomy of attacks and failure modes and a hierarchical top-down reasoning mechanism. It has been implemented using the Figaro modeling language and the associated tools. In order to build the model of a system, the user only has to describe graphically the physical and functional (in terms of software and data flows) architectures of the system. The association of the knowledge base and the system architecture produces a dynamic state based model: a Continuous Time Markov Chain. Because of the combinatorial explosion of the states, this CTMC cannot be exhaustively built, but it can be explored in two ways: by a search of sequences leading to an undesirable event, or by Monte Carlo simulation. This yields both qualitative and quantitative results.We finally illustrate the S-cube approach on a realistic case study: a pumped storage hydroelectric plant, in order to show its ability to yield a holistic analysis encompassing safety and security risks on such a system. We investigate the results obtained in order to identify potential safety and security interactions and give recommendations.Les Systèmes Cyber Physiques (CPS) intègrent des composants programmables afin de contrôler un processus physique. Ils sont désormais largement répandus dans différentes industries comme l’énergie, l’aéronautique, l’automobile ou l’industrie chimique. Parmi les différents CPS existants, les systèmes SCADA (Supervisory Control And Data Acquisition) permettent le contrôle et la supervision des installations industrielles critiques. Leur dysfonctionnement peut engendrer des impacts néfastes sur l’installation et son environnement.Les systèmes SCADA ont d’abord été isolés et basés sur des composants et standards propriétaires. Afin de faciliter la supervision du processus industriel et réduire les coûts, ils intègrent de plus en plus les technologies de communication et de l’information (TIC). Ceci les rend plus complexes et les expose à des cyber-attaques qui exploitent les vulnérabilités existantes des TIC. Ces attaques peuvent modifier le fonctionnement du système et nuire à sa sûreté.On associe dans la suite la sûreté aux risques de nature accidentelle provenant du système, et la sécurité aux risques d’origine malveillante et en particulier les cyber-attaques. Dans ce contexte où les infrastructures industrielles sont contrôlées par les nouveaux systèmes SCADA, les risques et les exigences liés à la sûreté et à la sécurité convergent et peuvent avoir des interactions mutuelles. Une analyse de risque qui couvre à la fois la sûreté et la sécurité est indispensable pour l’identification de ces interactions ce qui conditionne l’optimalité de la gestion de risque.Dans cette thèse, on donne d’abord un état de l’art complet des approches qui traitent la sûreté et la sécurité des systèmes industriels et on souligne leur carences par rapport aux quatre critères suivants qu’on juge nécessaires pour une bonne approche basée sur les modèles : formelle, automatique, qualitative et quantitative, et robuste (i.e. intègre facilement dans le modèle des variations d’hypothèses sur le système).On propose ensuite une nouvelle approche orientée modèle d’analyse conjointe de la sûreté et de la sécurité : S-cube (SCADA Safety and Security modeling), qui satisfait les critères ci-dessus. Elle permet une modélisation formelle des CPS et génère l’analyse de risque qualitative et quantitative associée. Grâce à une modélisation graphique de l’architecture du système, S-cube permet de prendre en compte différentes hypothèses et de générer automatiquement les scenarios de risque liés à la sûreté et à la sécurité qui amènent à un évènement indésirable donné, avec une estimation de leurs probabilités.L’approche S-cube est basée sur une base de connaissance (BDC) qui décrit les composants typiques des architectures industrielles incluant les systèmes d’information, le contrôle et la supervision, et l’instrumentation. Cette BDC a été conçue sur la base d’une taxonomie d’attaques et modes de défaillances et un mécanisme de raisonnement hiérarchique. Elle a été mise en œuvre à l’aide du langage de modélisation Figaro et ses outils associés. Afin de construire le modèle du système, l’utilisateur saisit graphiquement l’architecture physique et fonctionnelle (logiciels et flux de données) du système. L’association entre la BDC et ce modèle produit un modèle d’états dynamiques : une chaîne de Markov à temps continu. Pour limiter l’explosion combinatoire, cette chaîne n’est pas construite mais peut être explorée de deux façons : recherche de séquences amenant à un évènement indésirable ou simulation de Monte Carlo, ce qui génère des résultats qualitatifs et quantitatifs.On illustre enfin l’approche S-cube sur un cas d’étude réaliste : un système de stockage d’énergie par pompage, et on montre sa capacité à générer une analyse holistique couvrant les risques liés à la sûreté et à la sécurité. Les résultats sont ensuite analysés afin d’identifier les interactions potentielles entre sûreté et sécurité et de donner des recommandations