Cost-Sensitive Selective Classification and its Applications to Online Fraud Management

abstract: Fraud is defined as the utilization of deception for illegal gain by hiding the true nature of the activity. While organizations lose around $3.7 trillion in revenue due to financial crimes and fraud worldwide, they can affect all levels of society significantly. In this dissertation, I focus on credit card fraud in online transactions. Every online transaction comes with a fraud risk and it is the merchant's liability to detect and stop fraudulent transactions. Merchants utilize various mechanisms to prevent and manage fraud such as automated fraud detection systems and manual transaction reviews by expert fraud analysts. Many proposed solutions mostly focus on fraud detection accuracy and ignore financial considerations. Also, the highly effective manual review process is overlooked. First, I propose Profit Optimizing Neural Risk Manager (PONRM), a selective classifier that (a) constitutes optimal collaboration between machine learning models and human expertise under industrial constraints, (b) is cost and profit sensitive. I suggest directions on how to characterize fraudulent behavior and assess the risk of a transaction. I show that my framework outperforms cost-sensitive and cost-insensitive baselines on three real-world merchant datasets. While PONRM is able to work with many supervised learners and obtain convincing results, utilizing probability outputs directly from the trained model itself can pose problems, especially in deep learning as softmax output is not a true uncertainty measure. This phenomenon, and the wide and rapid adoption of deep learning by practitioners brought unintended consequences in many situations such as in the infamous case of Google Photos' racist image recognition algorithm; thus, necessitated the utilization of the quantified uncertainty for each prediction. There have been recent efforts towards quantifying uncertainty in conventional deep learning methods (e.g., dropout as Bayesian approximation); however, their optimal use in decision making is often overlooked and understudied. Thus, I present a mixed-integer programming framework for selective classification called MIPSC, that investigates and combines model uncertainty and predictive mean to identify optimal classification and rejection regions. I also extend this framework to cost-sensitive settings (MIPCSC) and focus on the critical real-world problem, online fraud management and show that my approach outperforms industry standard methods significantly for online fraud management in real-world settings.Dissertation/ThesisDoctoral Dissertation Computer Science 201

Inquisitive Pattern Recognition

The Department of Defense and the Department of the Air Force have funded automatic target recognition for several decades with varied success. The foundation of automatic target recognition is based upon pattern recognition. In this work, we present new pattern recognition concepts specifically in the area of classification and propose new techniques that will allow one to determine when a classifier is being arrogant. Clearly arrogance in classification is an undesirable attribute. A human is being arrogant when their expressed conviction in a decision overstates their actual experience in making similar decisions. Likewise given an input feature vector, we say a classifier is arrogant in its classification if its veracity is high yet its experience is low. Conversely a classifier is non-arrogant in its classification if there is a reasonable balance between its veracity and its experience. We quantify this balance and we discuss new techniques that will detect arrogance in a classifier. Inquisitiveness is in many ways the opposite of arrogance. In nature inquisitiveness is an eagerness for knowledge characterized by the drive to question to seek a deeper understanding and to challenge assumptions. The human capacity to doubt present beliefs allows us to acquire new experiences and to learn from our mistakes. Within the discrete world of computers, inquisitive pattern recognition is the constructive investigation and exploitation of conflict in information. This research defines inquisitiveness within the context of self-supervised machine learning and introduces mathematical theory and computational methods for quantifying incompleteness that is for isolating unstable, nonrepresentational regions in present information models

Heart Diseases Diagnosis Using Artificial Neural Networks

Information technology has virtually altered every aspect of human life in the present era. The application of informatics in the health sector is rapidly gaining prominence and the benefits of this innovative paradigm are being realized across the globe. This evolution produced large number of patients’ data that can be employed by computer technologies and machine learning techniques, and turned into useful information and knowledge. This data can be used to develop expert systems to help in diagnosing some life-threating diseases such as heart diseases, with less cost, processing time and improved diagnosis accuracy. Even though, modern medicine is generating huge amount of data every day, little has been done to use this available data to solve challenges faced in the successful diagnosis of heart diseases. Highlighting the need for more research into the usage of robust data mining techniques to help health care professionals in the diagnosis of heart diseases and other debilitating disease conditions. Based on the foregoing, this thesis aims to develop a health informatics system for the classification of heart diseases using data mining techniques focusing on Radial Basis functions and emerging Neural Networks approach. The presented research involves three development stages; firstly, the development of a preliminary classification system for Coronary Artery Disease (CAD) using Radial Basis Function (RBF) neural networks. The research then deploys the deep learning approach to detect three different types of heart diseases i.e. Sleep Apnea, Arrhythmias and CAD by designing two novel classification systems; the first adopt a novel deep neural network method (with Rectified Linear unit activation) design as the second approach in this thesis and the other implements a novel multilayer kernel machine to mimic the behaviour of deep learning as the third approach. Additionally, this thesis uses a dataset obtained from patients, and employs normalization and feature extraction means to explore it in a unique way that facilitates its usage for training and validating different classification methods. This unique dataset is useful to researchers and practitioners working in heart disease treatment and diagnosis. The findings from the study reveal that the proposed models have high classification performance that is comparable, or perhaps exceed in some cases, the existing automated and manual methods of heart disease diagnosis. Besides, the proposed deep-learning models provide better performance when applied on large data sets (e.g., in the case of Sleep Apnea), with reasonable performance with smaller data sets. The proposed system for clinical diagnoses of heart diseases, contributes to the accurate detection of such disease, and could serve as an important tool in the area of clinic support system. The outcome of this study in form of implementation tool can be used by cardiologists to help them make more consistent diagnosis of heart diseases

Classification of microarray gene expression cancer data by using artificial intelligence methods

Günümüzde bilgisayar teknolojilerinin gelişmesi ile birçok alanda yapılan çalışmaları etkilemiştir. Moleküler biyoloji ve bilgisayar teknolojilerinde meydana gelen gelişmeler biyoinformatik adlı bilimi ortaya çıkarmıştır. Biyoinformatik alanında meydana gelen hızlı gelişmeler, bu alanda çözülmeyi bekleyen birçok probleme çözüm olma yolunda büyük katkılar sağlamıştır. DNA mikroarray gen ekspresyonlarının sınıflandırılması da bu problemlerden birisidir. DNA mikroarray çalışmaları, biyoinformatik alanında kullanılan bir teknolojidir. DNA mikroarray veri analizi, kanser gibi genlerle alakalı hastalıkların teşhisinde çok etkin bir rol oynamaktadır. Hastalık türüne bağlı gen ifadeleri belirlenerek, herhangi bir bireyin hastalıklı gene sahip olup olmadığı büyük bir başarı oranı ile tespit edilebilir. Bireyin sağlıklı olup olmadığının tespiti için, mikroarray gen ekspresyonları üzerinde yüksek performanslı sınıflandırma tekniklerinin kullanılması büyük öneme sahiptir. DNA mikroarray’lerini sınıflandırmak için birçok yöntem bulunmaktadır. Destek Vektör Makinaları, Naive Bayes, k-En yakın Komşu, Karar Ağaçları gibi birçok istatistiksel yöntemler yaygın olarak kullanlmaktadır. Fakat bu yöntemler tek başına kullanıldığında, mikroarray verilerini sınıflandırmada her zaman yüksek başarı oranları vermemektedir. Bu yüzden mikroarray verilerini sınıflandırmada yüksek başarı oranları elde etmek için yapay zekâ tabanlı yöntemlerin de kullanılması yapılan çalışmalarda görülmektedir. Bu çalışmada, bu istatistiksel yöntemlere ek olarak yapay zekâ tabanlı ANFIS gibi bir yöntemi kullanarak daha yüksek başarı oranları elde etmek amaçlanmıştır. İstatistiksel sınıflandırma yöntemleri olarak K-En Yakın Komşuluk, Naive Bayes ve Destek Vektör Makineleri kullanılmıştır. Burada Göğüs ve Merkezi Sinir Sistemi kanseri olmak üzere iki farklı kanser veri seti üzerinde çalışmalar yapılmıştır. Sonuçlardan elde edilen bilgilere göre, genel olarak yapay zekâ tabanlı ANFIS tekniğinin, istatistiksel yöntemlere göre daha başarılı olduğu tespit edilmiştir

Cross-domain MLP and CNN Transfer Learning for Biological Signal Processing: EEG and EMG

In this work, we show the success of unsupervised transfer learning between Electroencephalographic (brainwave) classification and Electromyographic (muscular wave) domains with both MLP and CNN methods. To achieve this, signals are measured from both the brain and forearm muscles and EMG data is gathered from a 4-class gesture classification experiment via the Myo Armband, and a 3-class mental state EEG dataset is acquired via the Muse EEG Headband. A hyperheuristic multi-objective evolutionary search method is used to find the best network hyperparameters. We then use this optimised topology of deep neural network to classify both EMG and EEG signals, attaining results of 84.76% and 62.37% accuracy, respectively. Next, when pre-trained weights from the EMG classification model are used for initial distribution rather than random weight initialisation for EEG classification, 93.82%(+29.95) accuracy is reached. When EEG pre-trained weights are used for initial weight distribution for EMG, 85.12% (+0.36) accuracy is achieved. When the EMG network attempts to classify EEG, it outperforms the EEG network even without any training (+30.25% to 82.39% at epoch 0), and similarly the EEG network attempting to classify EMG data outperforms the EMG network (+2.38% at epoch 0). All transfer networks achieve higher pre-training abilities, curves, and asymptotes, indicating that knowledge transfer is possible between the two signal domains. In a second experiment with CNN transfer learning, the same datasets are projected as 2D images and the same learning process is carried out. In the CNN experiment, EMG to EEG transfer learning is found to be successful but not vice-versa, although EEG to EMG transfer learning did exhibit a higher starting classification accuracy. The significance of this work is due to the successful transfer of ability between models trained on two different biological signal domains, reducing the need for building more computationally complex models in future research

Mobile app recommendations using deep learning and big data

Dissertation presented as the partial requirement for obtaining a Master's degree in Statistics and Information Management, specialization in Marketing Research e CRMRecommender systems were first introduced to solve information overload problems in enterprises. Over the last decades, recommender systems have found applications in several major websites related to e-commerce, music and video streaming, travel and movie sites, social media and mobile app stores. Several methods have been proposed over the years to build recommender systems. The most popular approaches are based on collaborative filtering techniques, which leverage the similarities between consumer tastes. But the current state of the art in recommender systems is deep-learning methods, which can leverage not only item consumption data but also content, context, and user attributes. Mobile app stores generate data with Big Data properties from app consumption data, behavioral, geographic, demographic, social network and user-generated content data, which includes reviews, comments and search queries. In this dissertation, we propose a deep-learning architecture for recommender systems in mobile app stores that leverage most of these data sources. We analyze three issues related to the impact of the data sources, the impact of embedding layer pretraining and the efficiency of using Kernel methods to improve app scoring at a Big Data scale. An experiment is conducted on a Portuguese Android app store. Results suggest that models can be improved by combining structured and unstructured data. The results also suggest that embedding layer pretraining is essential to obtain good results. Some evidence is provided showing that Kernel-based methods might not be efficient when deployed in Big Data contexts

ANN Models and Bayesian Spline Models for Analysis of Exchange Rates and Gold Price

ANN (Artificial Neural Network) models and Spline techniques have been applied to economic analysis, to handle economic problems, evaluate portfolio risk and stock performance, and to forecast stock exchange rates and gold prices. These techniques are improving nowadays and continue to serve as powerful predictive tools. In this study, we compare the performance of ANN models and Bayesian Spline models in forecasting economic datasets. We consider the most commonly used ANN models, which are Generalized Regression Neural Networks (GRNN), Multilayer Perceptron (MLP), and Radial Basis Function Neural Networks (RBFNN). We compare these models using BayesX and Statistica software with three important economic datasets: on the exchange rate of Turkish Liras (TL) to Euro, exchange rate of Turkish Liras (TL) to United States Dollars (USD), and Gold Price for Turkey. With these three economic datasets, we made a comparative study of these models, using the criterions MSE and MAPE to evaluate their forecasting performance. The results demonstrate that the penalized spline model performed best amongst the spline techniques and their Bayesian versions. Amongst the ANN models, the MLP model obtained the best performance criterion results

Gaussian processes and SVM: Mean field results and leave-one-out

In this chapter, we elaborate on the well-known relationship between Gaussian processes (GP) and Support Vector Machines (SVM). Secondly, we present approximate solutions for two computational problems arising in GP and SVM. The first one is the calculation of the posterior mean for GP classifiers using a `naive' mean field approach. The second one is a leave-one-out estimator for the generalization error of SVM based on a linear response method. Simulation results on a benchmark dataset show similar performances for the GP mean field algorithm and the SVM algorithm. The approximate leave-one-out estimator is found to be in very good agreement with the exact leave-one-out error