Applying human mobility and water consumption data for short-term water demand forecasting using classical and machine learning models

Water demand forecasting is a crucial task in the efficient management of the water supply system. This paper compares classical and adapted machine learning algorithms used for water usage predictions including ARIMA, support vector regression, random forests and extremely randomized trees. These models were enriched with human mobility data to improve the predictive power of water demand forecasting. Furthermore, a framework for processing mobility data into time-series correlated with water usage data is proposed. This study uses 51 days of water consumption readings and over 7 million geolocated mobility records from urban areas. Results show that using human mobility data improves water demand prediction. The best forecasting algorithm employing a random forest method achieved 90.4% accuracy (measured by the mean absolute percentage error) and is better by 1% than the same algorithm using only water data, while classic ARIMA approach achieved 90.0%. The Blind (copying) prediction achieved 85.1% of accuracy

Short-term water demand forecasting using machine learning techniques

Nowadays, a large number of water utilities still manage their operation on the instant water demand of the network, meaning that the use of the equipment is conditioned by the immediate water necessity. The water reservoirs of the networks are filled using pumps that start working when the water level reaches a specified minimum, stopping when it reaches a maximum level. Shifting the focus to water management based on future demand allows use of the equipment when energy is cheaper, taking advantage of the electricity tariff in action, thus bringing significant financial savings over time. Shortterm water demand forecasting is a crucial step to support decision making regarding the equipment operation management. For this purpose, forecasting methodologies are analyzed and implemented. Several machine learning methods, such as neural networks, random forests, support vector machines and k-nearest neighbors, are evaluated using real data from two Portuguese water utilities. Moreover, the influence of factors such as weather, seasonality, amount of data used in training and forecast window is also analysed. A weighted parallel strategy that gathers the advantages of the different machine learning techniques is suggested. The results are validated and compared with those achieved by autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) also using benchmarks.publishe

Committee Machines for Hourly Water Demand Forecasting in Water Supply Systems

[EN] Prediction models have become essential for the improvement of decision-making processes in public management and, particularly, for water supply utilities. Accurate estimation often needs to solve multimeasurement, mixed-mode, and space-time problems, typical of many engineering applications. As a result, accurate estimation of real world variables is still one of the major problems in mathematical approximation. Several individual techniques have shown very good estimation abilities. However, none of them are free from drawbacks. This paper faces the challenge of creating accurate water demand predictive models at urban scale by using so-called committee machines, which are ensemble frameworks of single machine learning models. The proposal is able to combine models of varied nature. Specifically, this paper analyzes combinations of such techniques as multilayer perceptrons, support vector machines, extreme learning machines, random forests, adaptive neural fuzzy inference systems, and the group method for data handling. Analyses are checked on two water demand datasets from Franca (Brazil). As an ensemble tool, the combined response of a committee machine outperforms any single constituent model.Ambrosio, JK.; Brentan, BM.; Herrera Fernández, AM.; Luvizotto, E.; Ribeiro, L.; Izquierdo Sebastián, J. (2019). Committee Machines for Hourly Water Demand Forecasting in Water Supply Systems. Mathematical Problems in Engineering. 2019:1-11. https://doi.org/10.1155/2019/97654681112019Montalvo, I., Izquierdo, J., Pérez-García, R., & Herrera, M. (2010). Improved performance of PSO with self-adaptive parameters for computing the optimal design of Water Supply Systems. Engineering Applications of Artificial Intelligence, 23(5), 727-735. doi:10.1016/j.engappai.2010.01.015Donkor, E. A., Mazzuchi, T. A., Soyer, R., & Alan Roberson, J. (2014). Urban Water Demand Forecasting: Review of Methods and Models. Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, 140(2), 146-159. doi:10.1061/(asce)wr.1943-5452.0000314Adamowski, J. F. (2008). Peak Daily Water Demand Forecast Modeling Using Artificial Neural Networks. Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, 134(2), 119-128. doi:10.1061/(asce)0733-9496(2008)134:2(119)Ghiassi, M., Zimbra, D. K., & Saidane, H. (2008). Urban Water Demand Forecasting with a Dynamic Artificial Neural Network Model. Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, 134(2), 138-146. doi:10.1061/(asce)0733-9496(2008)134:2(138)Clemen, R. T. (1989). Combining forecasts: A review and annotated bibliography. International Journal of Forecasting, 5(4), 559-583. doi:10.1016/0169-2070(89)90012-5Herrera, M., García-Díaz, J. C., Izquierdo, J., & Pérez-García, R. (2011). Municipal Water Demand Forecasting: Tools for Intervention Time Series. Stochastic Analysis and Applications, 29(6), 998-1007. doi:10.1080/07362994.2011.610161Breiman, L. (2001). Machine Learning, 45(1), 5-32. doi:10.1023/a:1010933404324Barzegar, R., & Asghari Moghaddam, A. (2016). Combining the advantages of neural networks using the concept of committee machine in the groundwater salinity prediction. Modeling Earth Systems and Environment, 2(1). doi:10.1007/s40808-015-0072-8Nadiri, A. A., Gharekhani, M., Khatibi, R., Sadeghfam, S., & Moghaddam, A. A. (2017). Groundwater vulnerability indices conditioned by Supervised Intelligence Committee Machine (SICM). Science of The Total Environment, 574, 691-706. doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.09.093Brentan, B. M., Meirelles, G., Herrera, M., Luvizotto, E., & Izquierdo, J. (2017). Correlation Analysis of Water Demand and Predictive Variables for Short-Term Forecasting Models. Mathematical Problems in Engineering, 2017, 1-10. doi:10.1155/2017/6343625Brentan, B. M., Luvizotto Jr., E., Herrera, M., Izquierdo, J., & Pérez-García, R. (2017). Hybrid regression model for near real-time urban water demand forecasting. Journal of Computational and Applied Mathematics, 309, 532-541. doi:10.1016/j.cam.2016.02.009Johansson, C., Bergkvist, M., Geysen, D., Somer, O. D., Lavesson, N., & Vanhoudt, D. (2017). Operational Demand Forecasting In District Heating Systems Using Ensembles Of Online Machine Learning Algorithms. Energy Procedia, 116, 208-216. doi:10.1016/j.egypro.2017.05.068Polikar, R. (2006). Ensemble based systems in decision making. IEEE Circuits and Systems Magazine, 6(3), 21-45. doi:10.1109/mcas.2006.1688199Ferreira, R. P., Martiniano, A., Ferreira, A., Ferreira, A., & Sassi, R. J. (2016). Study on Daily Demand Forecasting Orders using Artificial Neural Network. IEEE Latin America Transactions, 14(3), 1519-1525. doi:10.1109/tla.2016.7459644Cortes, C., & Vapnik, V. (1995). Support-vector networks. Machine Learning, 20(3), 273-297. doi:10.1007/bf00994018Schölkop, B. (2003). An Introduction to Support Vector Machines. Recent Advances and Trends in Nonparametric Statistics, 3-17. doi:10.1016/b978-044451378-6/50001-6Huang, G.-B., Wang, D. H., & Lan, Y. (2011). Extreme learning machines: a survey. International Journal of Machine Learning and Cybernetics, 2(2), 107-122. doi:10.1007/s13042-011-0019-yIvakhnenko, A. G. (1970). Heuristic self-organization in problems of engineering cybernetics. Automatica, 6(2), 207-219. doi:10.1016/0005-1098(70)90092-

Hybrid Model for Short-Term Water Demand Forecasting Based on Error Correction Using Chaotic Time Series

open access articleShort-term water demand forecasting plays an important role in smart management and real-time simulation of water distribution systems (WDSs). This paper proposes a hybrid model for the short-term forecasting in the horizon of one day with 15 minute time steps, which improves the forecasting accuracy by adding an error correction module to the initial forecasting model. The initial forecasting model is firstly established based on the least square support vector machine (LSSVM), the errors time series obtained by comparing the observed values and the initial forecasted values is next transformed into chaotic time series, and then the error correction model is established by the LSSVM method to forecast errors at the next time step. The hybrid model is tested on three real-world district metering areas (DMAs) in Beijing, China, with different demand patterns. The results show that, with the help of the error correction module, the hybrid model reduced the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of forecasted demand from (5.64%, 4.06%, 5.84%) to (4.84%, 3.15%, 3.47%) for the three DMAs, compared with using LSSVM without error correction. Therefore, the proposed hybrid model provides a better solution for short-term water demand forecasting on the tested cases

Forecasting tourism demand for Lisbon’s region through a data mining approach

Ricardo, H., Ivo, G., & Costa, A. C. (2018). Forecasting tourism demand for Lisbon’s region through a data mining approach. In M. B. Nunes, P. Isaías, & P. Powell (Eds.), Proceedings of the 11th IADIS International Conference Information Systems 2018 (pp. 58-66). IADIS Press. ISBN: 978-989-8533-74-6Tourism stakeholders such as the government, passenger transport companies, accommodation establishments, restaurants, recreational businesses, among others, rely on tourism demand indicators’ forecasts to make decisions. Most of tourism demand forecasting models are time-series and econometric based. Machine learning methods are emerging and have been proved to be quite suitable for non-linear modelling. These methods are part of an interdisciplinary field named “Data Mining” which is known by the process of knowledge discovery in databases (KDD). The core drive of this work is to enhance the available public sources of tourism forecast information and to contribute to the tourism stakeholders’ strategy in Portugal. More specifically, a multivariate model to forecast international tourism demand was developed through a Data Mining approach, which assessed models derived by Regression Trees (Random Forests), Artificial Neural Networks and, Support Vector Machines (SVM). The model development was constrained to machine learning methods, publicly available data, and minimum data assumptions. The forecasted demand variable was the nights spent at tourist accommodation establishments in Lisbon’s region, one of the country’s main foreign tourist destinations. The objectives were achieved, as the selected model (SMOReg, support vector regression) was successful in generalization capability. The accuracy of the produced forecasts provides some evidence of the reliability of the proposed model. If institutions and decision makers have information regarding the evolution of the explanatory variables used in this model, the impact on Lisbon’s tourism demand can be assessed, even in case of an emerging recession, as shown using three future plausible scenarios.publishersversionpublishe

Hybrid regression model for near real-time urban water demand forecasting

[EN] The most important factor in planning and operating water distribution systems is satisfying consumer demand. This means continuously providing users with quality water in adequate volumes at reasonable pressure, thus ensuring reliable water distribution. In recent years, the application of statistical, machine learning, and artificial intelligence methodologies has been fostered for water demand forecasting. However, there is still room for improvement; and new challenges regarding on-line predictive models for water demand have appeared. This work proposes applying support vector regression, as one of the currently better machine learning options for short-term water demand forecasting, to build a base prediction. On this model, a Fourier time series process is built to improve the base prediction. This addition produces a tool able to eliminate many of the errors and much of the bias inherent in a fixed regression structure when responding to new incoming time series data. The final hybrid process is validated using demand data from a water utility in Franca, Brazil. Our model, being a near real-time model for water demand, may be directly exploited in water management decision-making processes. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.This work has been partially supported by CAPES Foundation of Brazil’s Ministry of Education. The data were provided by SABESP, São Paulo state water management company.Brentan, BM.; Luvizotto, E.; Herrera Fernández, AM.; Izquierdo Sebastián, J.; Pérez García, R. (2017). Hybrid regression model for near real-time urban water demand forecasting. Journal of Computational and Applied Mathematics. 309:532-541. doi:10.1016/j.cam.2016.02.009S53254130

A Comparison of Machine Learning and Classical Demand Forecasting Methods: A Case Study of Ecuadorian Textile Industry

[EN] This document presents a comparison of demand forecasting methods, with the aim of improving demand forecasting and with it, the production planning system of Ecuadorian textile industry. These industries present problems in providing a reliable estimate of future demand due to recent changes in the Ecuadorian context. The impact on demand for textile products has been observed in variables such as sales prices and manufacturing costs, manufacturing gross domestic product and the unemployment rate. Being indicators that determine to a great extent, the quality and accuracy of the forecast, generating also, uncertainty scenarios. For this reason, the aim of this work is focused on the demand forecasting for textile products by comparing a set of classic methods such as ARIMA, STL Decomposition, Holt-Winters and machine learning, Artificial Neural Networks, Bayesian Networks, Random Forest, Support Vector Machine, taking into consideration all the above mentioned, as an essential input for the production planning and sales of the textile industries. And as a support, when developing strategies for demand management and medium-term decision making of this sector under study. Finally, the effectiveness of the methods is demonstrated by comparing them with different indicators that evaluate the forecast error, with the Multi-layer Neural Networks having the best results with the least error and the best performance.The authors are greatly grateful by the support given by the SDAS Research Group (https://sdas-group.com/).Lorente-Leyva, LL.; Alemany Díaz, MDM.; Peluffo-Ordóñez, DH.; Herrera-Granda, ID. (2021). 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Modelling tourism demand to Spain with machine learning techniques. The impact of forecast horizon on model selection

This study assesses the influence of the forecast horizon on the forecasting performance of several machine learning techniques. We compare the fo recastaccuracy of Support Vector Regression (SVR) to Neural Network (NN) models, using a linear model as a benchmark. We focus on international tourism demand to all seventeen regions of Spain. The SVR with a Gaussian radial basis function kernel outperforms the rest of the models for the longest forecast horizons. We also find that machine learning methods improve their forecasting accuracy with respect to linear models as forecast horizons increase. This results shows the suitability of SVR for medium and long term forecasting.Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version