PERSIANN-CNN: Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information Using Artificial Neural Networks-Convolutional Neural Networks

Abstract Accurate and timely precipitation estimates are critical for monitoring and forecasting natural disasters such as floods. Despite having high-resolution satellite information, precipitation estimation from remotely sensed data still suffers from methodological limitations. State-of-the-art deep learning algorithms, renowned for their skill in learning accurate patterns within large and complex datasets, appear well suited to the task of precipitation estimation, given the ample amount of high-resolution satellite data. In this study, the effectiveness of applying convolutional neural networks (CNNs) together with the infrared (IR) and water vapor (WV) channels from geostationary satellites for estimating precipitation rate is explored. The proposed model performances are evaluated during summer 2012 and 2013 over central CONUS at the spatial resolution of 0.08° and at an hourly time scale. Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information Using Artificial Neural Networks (PERSIANN)–Cloud Classification System (CCS), which is an operational satellite-based product, and PERSIANN–Stacked Denoising Autoencoder (PERSIANN-SDAE) are employed as baseline models. Results demonstrate that the proposed model (PERSIANN-CNN) provides more accurate rainfall estimates compared to the baseline models at various temporal and spatial scales. Specifically, PERSIANN-CNN outperforms PERSIANN-CCS (and PERSIANN-SDAE) by 54% (and 23%) in the critical success index (CSI), demonstrating the detection skills of the model. Furthermore, the root-mean-square error (RMSE) of the rainfall estimates with respect to the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Stage IV gauge–radar data, for PERSIANN-CNN was lower than that of PERSIANN-CCS (PERSIANN-SDAE) by 37% (14%), showing the estimation accuracy of the proposed model

Machine learning-based fusion studies of rainfall estimation from spaceborne and ground-based radars

2019 Spring.Includes bibliographical references.Precipitation measurement by satellite radar plays a significant role in researching the water circle and forecasting extreme weather event. Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Precipitation Radar (PR) has capability of providing a high-resolution vertical profile of precipitation over the tropics regions. Its successor, Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Dual-frequency Precipitation Radar (DPR), can provide detailed information on the microphysical properties of precipitation particles, quantify particle size distribution and quantitatively measure light rain and falling snow. This thesis presents a novel Machine Learning system for ground-based and space borne radar rainfall estimation. The system first trains ground radar data for rainfall estimation using rainfall measurements from gauges and subsequently uses the ground radar based rainfall estimates to train spaceborne radar data in order to get space based rainfall product. Therein, data alignment between spaceborne and ground radar is conducted using the methodology proposed by Bolen and Chandrasekar (2013), which can minimize the effects of potential geometric distortion of spaceborne radar observations. For demonstration purposes, rainfall measurements from three rain gauge networks near Melbourne, Florida, are used for training and validation purposes. These three gauge networks, which are located in Kennedy Space Center (KSC), South Florida Water Management District (SFL), and St. Johns Water Management District (STJ), include 33, 46, and 99 rain gauge stations, respectively. Collocated ground radar observations from the National Weather Service (NWS) Weather Surveillance Radar – 1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) in Melbourne (i.e., KMLB radar) are trained with the gauge measurements. The trained model is then used to derive KMLB radar based rainfall product, which is used to train both TRMM PR and GPM DPR data collected from coincident overpasses events. The machine learning based rainfall product is compared against the standard satellite products, which shows great potential of the machine learning concept in satellite radar rainfall estimation. Also, the local rain maps generated by machine learning system at KMLB area are demonstrate the application potential

Radar and satellite observations of precipitation: space time variability, cross-validation, and fusion

2017 Fall.Includes bibliographical references.Rainfall estimation based on satellite measurements has proven to be very useful for various applications. A number of precipitation products at multiple time and space scales have been developed based on satellite observations. For example, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center has developed a morphing technique (i.e., CMORPH) to produce global precipitation products by combining existing space-based observations and retrievals. The CMORPH products are derived using infrared (IR) brightness temperature information observed by geostationary satellites and passive microwave-(PMW) based precipitation retrievals from low earth orbit satellites. Although space-based precipitation products provide an excellent tool for regional, local, and global hydrologic and climate studies as well as improved situational awareness for operational forecasts, their accuracy is limited due to restrictions of spatial and temporal sampling and the applied parametric retrieval algorithms, particularly for light precipitation or extreme events such as heavy rain. In contrast, ground-based radar is an excellent tool for quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) at finer space-time scales compared to satellites. This is especially true after the implementation of dual-polarization upgrades and further enhancement by urban scale X-band radar networks. As a result, ground radars are often critical for local scale rainfall estimation and for enabling forecasters to issue severe weather watches and warnings. Ground-based radars are also used for validation of various space measurements and products. In this study, a new S-band dual-polarization radar rainfall algorithm (DROPS2.0) is developed that can be applied to the National Weather Service (NWS) operational Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88DP) network. In addition, a real-time high-resolution QPE system is developed for the Engineering Research Center for Collaborative Adaptive Sensing of the Atmosphere (CASA) Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) dense radar network, which is deployed for urban hydrometeorological applications via high-resolution observations of the lower atmosphere. The CASA/DFW QPE system is based on the combination of a standard WSR-88DP (i.e., KFWS radar) and a high-resolution dual-polarization X-band radar network. The specific radar rainfall methodologies at Sand X-band frequencies, as well as the fusion methodology merging radar observations at different temporal resolutions are investigated. Comparisons between rainfall products from the DFW radar network and rainfall measurements from rain gauges are conducted for a large number of precipitation events over several years of operation, demonstrating the excellent performance of this urban QPE system. The real-time DFW QPE products are extensively used for flood warning operations and hydrological modelling. The high-resolution DFW QPE products also serve as a reliable dataset for validation of Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) satellite precipitation products. This study also introduces a machine learning-based data fusion system termed deep multi-layer perceptron (DMLP) to improve satellite-based precipitation estimation through incorporating ground radar-derived rainfall products. In particular, the CMORPH technique is applied first to derive combined PMW-based rainfall retrievals and IR data from multiple satellites. The combined PMW and IR data then serve as input to the proposed DMLP model. The high-quality rainfall products from ground radars are used as targets to train the DMLP model. In this dissertation, the prototype architecture of the DMLP model is detailed. The urban scale application over the DFW metroplex is presented. The DMLP-based rainfall products are evaluated using currently operational CMORPH products and surface rainfall measurements from gauge networks

Rainfall frequency analysis for ungauged regions using remotely sensed precipitation information

Rainfall frequency analysis, which is an important tool in hydrologic engineering, has been traditionally performed using information from gauge observations. This approach has proven to be a useful tool in planning and design for the regions where sufficient observational data are available. However, in many parts of the world where ground-based observations are sparse and limited in length, the effectiveness of statistical methods for such applications is highly limited. The sparse gauge networks over those regions, especially over remote areas and high-elevation regions, cannot represent the spatiotemporal variability of extreme rainfall events and hence preclude developing depth-duration-frequency curves (DDF) for rainfall frequency analysis. In this study, the PERSIANN-CDR dataset is used to propose a mechanism, by which satellite precipitation information could be used for rainfall frequency analysis and development of DDF curves. In the proposed framework, we first adjust the extreme precipitation time series estimated by PERSIANN-CDR using an elevation-based correction function, then use the adjusted dataset to develop DDF curves. As a proof of concept, we have implemented our proposed approach in 20 river basins in the United States with different climatic conditions and elevations. Bias adjustment results indicate that the correction model can significantly reduce the biases in PERSIANN-CDR estimates of annual maximum series, especially for high elevation regions. Comparison of the extracted DDF curves from both the original and adjusted PERSIANN-CDR data with the reported DDF curves from NOAA Atlas 14 shows that the extreme percentiles from the corrected PERSIANN-CDR are consistently closer to the gauge-based estimates at the tested basins. The median relative errors of the frequency estimates at the studied basins were less than 20% in most cases. Our proposed framework has the potential for constructing DDF curves for regions with limited or sparse gauge-based observations using remotely sensed precipitation information, and the spatiotemporal resolution of the adjusted PERSIANN-CDR data provides valuable information for various applications in remote and high elevation areas

Modelling Precipitation Intensities from X-Band Radar Measurements Using Artificial Neural Networks—A Feasibility Study for the Bavarian Oberland Region

Radar data may potentially provide valuable information for precipitation quantification, especially in regions with a sparse network of in situ observations or in regions with complex topography. Therefore, our aim is to conduct a feasibility study to quantify precipitation intensities based on radar measurements and additional meteorological variables. Beyond the well-established Z–R relationship for the quantification, this study employs Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) in different settings and analyses their performance. For this purpose, the radar data of a station in Upper Bavaria (Germany) is used and analysed for its performance in quantifying in situ observations. More specifically, the effects of time resolution, time offsets in the input data, and meteorological factors on the performance of the ANNs are investigated. It is found that ANNs that use actual reflectivity as only input are outperforming the standard Z–R relationship in reproducing ground precipitation. This is reflected by an increase in correlation between modelled and observed data from 0.67 (Z–R) to 0.78 (ANN) for hourly and 0.61 to 0.86, respectively, for 10 min time resolution. However, the focus of this study was to investigate if model accuracy benefits from additional input features. It is shown that an expansion of the input feature space by using time-lagged reflectivity with lags up to two and additional meteorological variables such as temperature, relative humidity, and sunshine duration significantly increases model performance. Thus, overall, it is shown that a systematic predictor screening and the correspondent extension of the input feature space substantially improves the performance of a simple Neural Network model. For instance, air temperature and relative humidity provide valuable additional input information. It is concluded that model performance is dependent on all three ingredients: time resolution, time lagged information, and additional meteorological input features. Taking all of these into account, the model performance can be optimized to a correlation of 0.9 and minimum model bias of 0.002 between observed and modelled precipitation data even with a simple ANN architecture

EPSAT-SG: a satellite method for precipitation estimation; its concepts and implementation for the AMMA experiment

International audienceThis paper presents a new rainfall estimation method, EPSAT-SG which is a frame for method design. The first implementation has been carried out to meet the requirement of the AMMA database on a West African domain. The rainfall estimation relies on two intermediate products: a rainfall probability and a rainfall potential intensity. The first one is computed from MSG/SEVIRI by a feed forward neural network. First evaluation results show better properties than direct precipitation intensity assessment by geostationary satellite infra-red sensors. The second product can be interpreted as a conditional rainfall intensity and, in the described implementation, it is extracted from GPCP-1dd. Various implementation options are discussed and comparison of this embedded product with 3B42 estimates demonstrates the importance of properly managing the temporal discontinuity. The resulting accumulated rainfall field can be presented as a GPCP downscaling. A validation based on ground data supplied by AGRHYMET (Niamey) indicates that the estimation error has been reduced in this process. The described method could be easily adapted to other geographical area and operational environment

Radar Reflectivity of Micro Rain Radar (MRR2) At 16.44180N, 80.620E of India

To improve accurate standards of Radar Reflectivity Z, Rainfall Rates RR, and even to monitor small size precipitation particles Z-R relation is derived in this work with the help of Micro Rain Radar. Formerly, taking rain/precipitation data from ground-based rain gauges (Cylindrical, Optical, Weighing, Tipping Bucket Rain Gauges, Disdrometers, etc.,) currently, in this work using METEK MRR (Micro Rain Radar) of Frequency Modulated Continuous Wave System which reads the vertical structure of precipitation particles and hence named as vertical profile radar which operates at 24.2 GHz and height up to 6000m/6kms with an increment step size of 200m respectively to monitor the frozen hydrometeors. It is installed at (16.440 N, 80.620 E) K L University, 29 meters above the sea level (ASL) in CARE LAB. To know the Radar Reflectivity of precipitation, it is observing the amount of power received to the radar receiver after hitting the precipitation particles with respect to the transmitted power of the radar. This proposed work considered distinctive rain conditions at different heights ASL ranging from 200m 1200m 2200m, and derived Z-R relations respectively

Radar Reflectivity of Micro Rain Radar (MRR2) At 16.44180N, 80.620E of India

To improve accurate standards of Radar Reflectivity Z, Rainfall Rates RR, and even to monitor small size precipitation particles Z-R relation is derived in this work with the help of Micro Rain Radar. Formerly, taking rain/precipitation data from ground-based rain gauges (Cylindrical, Optical, Weighing, Tipping Bucket Rain Gauges, Disdrometers, etc.,) currently, in this work using METEK MRR (Micro Rain Radar) of Frequency Modulated Continuous Wave System which reads the vertical structure of precipitation particles and hence named as vertical profile radar which operates at 24.2 GHz and height up to 6000m/6kms with an increment step size of 200m respectively to monitor the frozen hydrometeors. It is installed at (16.440 N, 80.620 E) K L University, 29 meters above the sea level (ASL) in CARE LAB. To know the Radar Reflectivity of precipitation, it is observing the amount of power received to the radar receiver after hitting the precipitation particles with respect to the transmitted power of the radar. This proposed work considered distinctive rain conditions at different heights ASL ranging from 200m 1200m 2200m, and derived Z-R relations respectively

Modelling precipitation intensities from x-band radar measurements using Artificial Neural Networks — a feasibility study for the Bavarian Oberland region

Radar data may potentially provide valuable information for precipitation quantification, especially in regions with a sparse network of in situ observations or in regions with complex topography. Therefore, our aim is to conduct a feasibility study to quantify precipitation intensities based on radar measurements and additional meteorological variables. Beyond the well-established Z–R relationship for the quantification, this study employs Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) in different settings and analyses their performance. For this purpose, the radar data of a station in Upper Bavaria (Germany) is used and analysed for its performance in quantifying in situ observations. More specifically, the effects of time resolution, time offsets in the input data, and meteorological factors on the performance of the ANNs are investigated. It is found that ANNs that use actual reflectivity as only input are outperforming the standard Z–R relationship in reproducing ground precipitation. This is reflected by an increase in correlation between modelled and observed data from 0.67 (Z–R) to 0.78 (ANN) for hourly and 0.61 to 0.86, respectively, for 10 min time resolution. However, the focus of this study was to investigate if model accuracy benefits from additional input features. It is shown that an expansion of the input feature space by using time-lagged reflectivity with lags up to two and additional meteorological variables such as temperature, relative humidity, and sunshine duration significantly increases model performance. Thus, overall, it is shown that a systematic predictor screening and the correspondent extension of the input feature space substantially improves the performance of a simple Neural Network model. For instance, air temperature and relative humidity provide valuable additional input information. It is concluded that model performance is dependent on all three ingredients: time resolution, time lagged information, and additional meteorological input features. Taking all of these into account, the model performance can be optimized to a correlation of 0.9 and minimum model bias of 0.002 between observed and modelled precipitation data even with a simple ANN architecture