Development and demonstration of a performance evaluation framework for threat evaluation and weapon assignment systems

Thesis (MEng)--Stellenbosch University, 2016.ENGLISH ABSTRACT: defending ground assets against aerial threats. These weapon systems are employed in conjunction with an array of sensor systems which are capable of detecting and tracking aerial threats, and providing information for determining the level of danger that the threats pose to the defended system. In this context, the purpose of a Threat Evaluation and Weapon Assignment (TEWA) system is to provide decision support to the human operators who are tasked with assigning weapon systems to counter the aerial threats. The TEWA system typically assigns appropriate system threat values to each of the aerial threats which indicates the level of danger they pose to the defended system. These system threat values are used, in turn, when seeking to optimise the allocation of weapon systems to threats in such a way that the weighted cumulative survival probability of the aerial threats is minimised. These weapon allocations are suggested to a human operator for implementation via a human machine interface. A large number of TEWA systems are already in use around the world, but due to the confidential nature of this research area, descriptions of the working of these systems are typically not available in the open literature. Despite the critical role these systems play in the current, evolving network-centric warfare environment, there exists no generic framework in the literature for evaluating the performance of TEWA systems. The work contained in this thesis therefore adds to the South African TEWA knowledge base by determining the extent to which current TEWA-related research in a ground-based air-defense environment forms a coherent foundation from which further system development and performance evaluation can continue. This broad research aim is achieved by developing a performance evaluation simulation framework for TEWA systems and demonstrating the feasibility of locally developed TEWA algorithms. A system-of-systems simulation modelling approach is adopted in the design of this framework. Using the framework, limitations present in the TEWA algorithms are identified and mitigation strategies are suggested. These strategies include a novel threat value fusion methodology, an alternative weapon system modelling approach and the implementation of a genetic algorithm for solving the weapon allocation problem approximately. Design requirements for an effective human machine interface are also described in some detail and several TEWA system performance metrics are suggested. The working of the framework is finally demonstrated in the context of a comprehensive, near-realistic, but hypothetical, ground-based air-defense scenario.AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: In 'n militêre lugafweeromgewing word grond-gebaseerde wapenstelsels gebruik om grondbates teen lugbedreigings te beskerm. Hierdie wapenstelsels word in oorleg met 'n aantal sensorstelsels aangewend wat daartoe in staat is om lugbedreigings op te spoor en te volg, en inligting te verskaf waarvolgens die vlak van gevaar wat hierdie bedreigings vir die verdedigde stelsel inhou, bepaal kan word. In hierdie konteks is die doel van 'n Bedreigingsafskatting-en-wapentoewysing (TEWA) stelsel om besluitsteun aan menslike operateurs te bied wat daarvoor verantwoordelik is om wapenstelsels aan lugbedreigings toe te ken. Die TEWA stelsel heg tipies 'n gepaste stelsel-wye bedreigingswaarde aan elkeen van die lugbedreigings wat die vlak van gevaar aandui wat hul met betrekking tot die verdedigde stelsel inhou. Hierdie stelsel-wye bedreigingswaardes word dan gebruik in die soeke na optimale toewysings van wapenstelsels aan die bedreigings om sodoende die geweegde, geakkumuleerde oorlewingswaarskynlikheid van die lugbedreigings te minimeer. Wapentoewysingsvoorstelle word deur middel van 'n mens-masjien koppelvlak aan 'n menslike operateur vir implementasie voorgel^e. 'n Groot getal TEWA stelsels is reeds w^ereldwyd in gebruik, maar as gevolg van die vertroulike aard van hierdie navorsingsgebied, is beskrywings van die werking van hierdie stelsels tipies nie in die oop literatuur beskikbaar nie. Ten spyte van die kritiese rol wat hierdie stelsels in die huidige, evoluerende netwerk-sentriese oorlogvoeringsomgewing speel, bestaan daar geen generiese raamwerke in die literatuur waarvolgens die werkverrigting van TEWA stelsels geëvalueer kan word nie. Die werk wat in hierdie tesis vervat is, dra dus by tot die Suid-Afrikaanse TEWA stelselkennisbasis deur vas te stel tot watter mate die huidige TEWA stelsel-verwante navorsing in die konteks van 'n grond-gebaseerde lugafweeromgewing 'n samehorige grondslag vorm waarop verdere stelselontwikkeling en werkverrigtingsanalise kan voortbou. Hierdie breë navorsingsdoel word bereik deur 'n simulasieraamwerk daar te stel waarvolgens die werkverrigting van TEWA stelsels gemeet kan word en met behulp waarvan die werkbaarheid van plaaslik-ontwikkelde TEWA algoritmes gedemonstreer kan word. Deur van die raamwerk gebruik te maak, word beperkings in die TEWA algoritmes geïdentifiseer en word strategieë voorgestel waarvolgens hierdie beperkings reggestel kan word. Hierdie strategieë sluit in 'n nuwe metodologie vir die samevoeging van bedreigingswaardes, 'n alternatiewe wapenstelsel-modelleringsbenadering en die implementasie van 'n genetiese algoritme vir die benaderde oplossing van die wapentoewysingsprobleem. Ontwerpsvereistes vir 'n doeltreffende mens-masjien koppelvlak word ook noukeurig beskryf, en 'n aantal TEWA stelsel werkverrigtingsmaatstawwe word voorgestel. Die werking van die raamwerk word uiteindelik aan die hand van 'n omvattende, byna realistiese, maar hipotetiese, grond-gebaseerde lugafweerscenario gedemonstreer

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