Trajectory Synthesis for Fisher Information Maximization

Estimation of model parameters in a dynamic system can be significantly improved with the choice of experimental trajectory. For general, nonlinear dynamic systems, finding globally "best" trajectories is typically not feasible; however, given an initial estimate of the model parameters and an initial trajectory, we present a continuous-time optimization method that produces a locally optimal trajectory for parameter estimation in the presence of measurement noise. The optimization algorithm is formulated to find system trajectories that improve a norm on the Fisher information matrix. A double-pendulum cart apparatus is used to numerically and experimentally validate this technique. In simulation, the optimized trajectory increases the minimum eigenvalue of the Fisher information matrix by three orders of magnitude compared to the initial trajectory. Experimental results show that this optimized trajectory translates to an order of magnitude improvement in the parameter estimate error in practice.Comment: 12 page

Spectral unmixing of Multispectral Lidar signals

In this paper, we present a Bayesian approach for spectral unmixing of multispectral Lidar (MSL) data associated with surface reflection from targeted surfaces composed of several known materials. The problem addressed is the estimation of the positions and area distribution of each material. In the Bayesian framework, appropriate prior distributions are assigned to the unknown model parameters and a Markov chain Monte Carlo method is used to sample the resulting posterior distribution. The performance of the proposed algorithm is evaluated using synthetic MSL signals, for which single and multi-layered models are derived. To evaluate the expected estimation performance associated with MSL signal analysis, a Cramer-Rao lower bound associated with model considered is also derived, and compared with the experimental data. Both the theoretical lower bound and the experimental analysis will be of primary assistance in future instrument design

A methodology for airplane parameter estimation and confidence interval determination in nonlinear estimation problems

An algorithm for maximum likelihood (ML) estimation is developed with an efficient method for approximating the sensitivities. The ML algorithm relies on a new optimization method referred to as a modified Newton-Raphson with estimated sensitivities (MNRES). MNRES determines sensitivities by using slope information from local surface approximations of each output variable in parameter space. With the fitted surface, sensitivity information can be updated at each iteration with less computational effort than that required by either a finite-difference method or integration of the analytically determined sensitivity equations. MNRES eliminates the need to derive sensitivity equations for each new model, and thus provides flexibility to use model equations in any convenient format. A random search technique for determining the confidence limits of ML parameter estimates is applied to nonlinear estimation problems for airplanes. The confidence intervals obtained by the search are compared with Cramer-Rao (CR) bounds at the same confidence level. The degree of nonlinearity in the estimation problem is an important factor in the relationship between CR bounds and the error bounds determined by the search technique. Beale's measure of nonlinearity is developed in this study for airplane identification problems; it is used to empirically correct confidence levels and to predict the degree of agreement between CR bounds and search estimates

Space-Time diversity for NLOS mitigation in TDOA-based positioning systems

This paper studies the potential impact of using space-Time information in the mitigation of the Non-LineOf-Sight condition in mobile subscriber's positioning systems. First of all, this work discusses the positioning problem based on measures of Time Differences Of Arrival departing from a more exact characterization of the signal statistics and including some geometrical restrictions to achieve an improved accurate. Furthermore, a novel approach that integrates signal propagation characteristics to information provided by a suitable timing estimation model based on Cramer Rao Bound for a Rayleigh-fading channel, when antenna arrays are used at the receiver and when a set ofchannel vector estimates are available, has been introduced to study the positive benefits of space-Time diversity. These approaches are evaluated within a realistic simulation scenario.Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version