Taxonomy for Industrial Cluster Decarbonization: An Analysis for the Italian Hard-to-Abate Industry

The share of industry in final global energy consumption was more than 30% in 2020, of which, the hard-to-abate sectors accounted for almost 60% of total final consumption in industry. Similarly, in Europe, industry accounts for around 25% of final energy consumption. In order to reduce the impact of industry in energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions, Europe has set many policies that support and regulate the sector, including pricing carbon emissions in a cap-and-trade scheme called the European Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS). According to the EU ETS, in 2021 the verified emissions of all stationary installations were around 1.3 billion tons of carbon dioxide equivalent emissions. In 2021, the total allocated allowances amounted to around 1 billion tons of carbon dioxide equivalent emissions, half of which were freely allocated. After reviewing the existing modeling approaches for industrial clusters and the available datasets, and assessing the energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions at plant level using a geographical information system approach (GIS), a taxonomy for industrial cluster decarbonization was introduced. This taxonomy shows that describing industry as sets of clustered installations rather than based on the conventional sectoral economic classification provides more insights into energy transition. First, the cluster description provides a more accurate techno-economic assessment based on a finer characterization of economies of scale compared to traditional energy systems models. Second, the industrial clustering approach may more realistically show the feasibility, in addition to the costs and benefits from coupling industry with transport (e.g., industrial fleets and logistics) or buildings (e.g., city scale), due to a more detailed representation of the energy sources and sinks

The Finer Things in Life: Comparing High Resolution Fossil Fuel Carbon Dioxide Emissions Inventories

The quantification of fossil fuel contributions to carbon dioxide concentrations is necessary for monitoring, reporting, and verifying carbon dioxide emissions, which is necessary for the success of international agreements to reduce emissions. However, existing fossil fuel carbon dioxide (FFCO2) emissions inventories vary in terms of the data and methods used to estimate and distribute FFCO2. This paper compares how the approaches used to create FFCO2 emissions inventories effect the magnitude and spatial distribution of emissions estimates. Five FFCO2 emission inventories were compared: Carbon Dioxide Information and Analysis Center (CDIAC), Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR), Fossil Fuel Data Assimilation System (FFDAS), Open-source Data Inventory for Anthropogenic CO2 (ODIAC), and Vulcan. The effects of using specific approaches in the creation of spatially explicit FFCO2 emissions inventories, and the effect of resolution on data representation are analyzed using graphical, numerical, and cartographic data. Results are analyzed to understand the effects of using top-down versus bottom-up approaches, nightlights versus population, and the inclusion of large point sources. Understanding the relationship between these patterns and how they change with resolution supports future development of gridded FFCO2 emissions inventories

How Responsive Are EU Coal-Burning Plants to Changes in Energy Prices?

The European Union (EU) Emissions Trading System (ETS) has implicitly made it more expensive to burn coal relative to natural gas because coal has a higher carbon content. Therefore, it is important to understand how much plants reduce their coal usage in response to higher coal prices to assess the effectiveness of the ETS in reducing carbon emissions. We analyze a novel panel of coal-burning large combustion plants from a subsample of eight EU countries and found that, holding constant the natural gas price, a 1% increase in the coal price results in a 0.36% decrease in coal consumption. At current ETS prices, this implies that the average large combustion plant in our sample EU countries is burning 7% less coal than it would be absent in the ETS. This suggests that the ETS has significantly reduced carbon emissions from coal-fired plants for the eight countries represented in our sample

Imposing a unilateral carbon constraint on European energy-intensive industries and its impact on their international competitiveness - data & analysis

We examine the implications of EU climate policy for energy intensive industries by calculating, for a range of energy-intensive processes and products, the product price increases that would be required to maintain unit profits at present levels, based on likely values of allowance prices in the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme up to 2020. We also investigate in how far it would be possible for the affected activities to pass through cost increases to their clients, by analysing their exposure to domestic and international competition. It concludes that the sectors analysed are typically relatively highly concentrated (sometimes even at the world level) and form parts of vertically integrated and locally-clustered value chains. This tends to increase market entry and exit barriers and, thus, to reduce the risk of large output losses and delocalisation.climate change, competitiveness, energy-intensive industries, emissions trading, bergmann, schmitz, hayden, gerday, kosonen

Imposing a unilateral carbon constraint on European energy-intensive industries and its impact on their international competitiveness - data & analysis

This paper investigates the implications of EU climate change policy for energy intensive industries. Specifically, it calculates, for a range of energy-intensive processes and products, the product price increases that would be required to maintain unit profits at present levels, based on likely values of allowance prices in the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme up to 2020. For most of the energy- and carbon-intensive products considered here, an allowance price of €20 per tonne of carbon dioxide would require price increases of between 0.1 to 5% to maintain profits, assuming full pass-through of the allowance price along the value chain. Doubling the allowance price to €40/tonne would double the required increase. The activities that risk being most challenged by the carbon constraint appear to be container glass production using virgin inputs, primary aluminium production, primary steel production based on the basic oxygen furnace process, and some basic chemicals production. However, the analysis has also shown that for many of these cases alternative production processes exist, based on recycled inputs, for example. The cement sector, although very energy- and carbon-intensive, is relatively little exposed to international competition. Indeed, the paper also investigates in how far it would be possible for the affected activities to pass through cost increases to their clients, by analysing their exposure to domestic and international competition. It concludes that the sectors analysed are typically relatively highly concentrated (sometimes even at the world level) and form parts of vertically integrated and locally-clustered value chains. This tends to increase market entry and exit barriers and, thus, to reduce the risk of large output losses and delocalisation.climate change, competitiveness, energy-intensive industries, emissions trading

Baseline projections for Latin America: base-year assumptions, key drivers and greenhouse emissions

This paper provides an overview of the base-year assumptions and baseline projections for the set of models participating in the LAMP and CLIMACAP projects. We present the range in baseline projections for Latin America, and identify key differences between model projections including how these projections compare to historic trends. We find relatively large differences across models in base year assumptions related to population, GDP, energy and CO2 emissions due to the use of different data sources, but also conclude that this does not influence the range of projections. We find that population and GDP projections across models span a broad range, comparable to the range represented by the set of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Kaya-factor decomposition indicates that the set of baseline scenarios mirrors trends experienced over the past decades. Emissions in Latin America are projected to rise as a result of GDP and population growth and a minor shift in the energy mix toward fossil fuels. Most scenarios assume a somewhat higher GDP growth than historically observed and continued decline of population growth. Minor changes in energy intensity or energy mix are projected over the next few decades

Crises and emissions : new empirical evidence from a large sample

In this paper, we empirically assess by means of the local projection method, the impact of different types of financial crises on a variety of pollutant emissions categories for a sample of 86 countries between 1980-2012. We find that financial crises in general lead to a fall in CO2 and methane emissions. When hit by a debt crisis, a country experiences a rise in emissions stemming from either energy related activities or industrial processes. During periods of slack, financial crises in general had a positive impact on both methane and nitrous oxide emissions. If a financial crisis hit an economy when it was engaging in contractionary fiscal policies, this led to a negative response of CO2 and production-based emissions.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Harnessing Remote Sensing to Accomplish Full Carbon Accounting: Workshop Report

The workshop "Harnessing Remote Sensing to Accomplish Full Carbon Accounting" was held on December 9-11th, 1999 at IIASA with the intention of meeting the following objectives: (1) To Promote the mutual interests of remote sensing and carbon science communities by exchanging the ideas regarding the requirements for carbon accounting and the current available products derived from remote sensing land information systems; (2) To produce strategic recommendations on how to improve FCA at different scales with the use of remote sensing tools; and, (3) To develop a Framework to Apply Recommendations for Sub-global and National-Level Case Studies. Although these ambitious targets were only part met, three discussion group sessions resulted in describing: What is required to implement full carbon accounting; How remote sensing can be used to assist this implementation; and, How remote sensing can be used to reduce the uncertainties related to FCA. This report summarizes the presentations, discussions and results of this workshop and outlines the next steps to be taken by IIASA