Activity clocks: spreading dynamics on temporal networks of human contact

Dynamical processes on time-varying complex networks are key to understanding and modeling a broad variety of processes in socio-technical systems. Here we focus on empirical temporal networks of human proximity and we aim at understanding the factors that, in simulation, shape the arrival time distribution of simple spreading processes. Abandoning the notion of wall-clock time in favour of node-specific clocks based on activity exposes robust statistical patterns in the arrival times across different social contexts. Using randomization strategies and generative models constrained by data, we show that these patterns can be understood in terms of heterogeneous inter-event time distributions coupled with heterogeneous numbers of events per edge. We also show, both empirically and by using a synthetic dataset, that significant deviations from the above behavior can be caused by the presence of edge classes with strong activity correlations

Multiscale Analysis of Spreading in a Large Communication Network

In temporal networks, both the topology of the underlying network and the timings of interaction events can be crucial in determining how some dynamic process mediated by the network unfolds. We have explored the limiting case of the speed of spreading in the SI model, set up such that an event between an infectious and susceptible individual always transmits the infection. The speed of this process sets an upper bound for the speed of any dynamic process that is mediated through the interaction events of the network. With the help of temporal networks derived from large scale time-stamped data on mobile phone calls, we extend earlier results that point out the slowing-down effects of burstiness and temporal inhomogeneities. In such networks, links are not permanently active, but dynamic processes are mediated by recurrent events taking place on the links at specific points in time. We perform a multi-scale analysis and pinpoint the importance of the timings of event sequences on individual links, their correlations with neighboring sequences, and the temporal pathways taken by the network-scale spreading process. This is achieved by studying empirically and analytically different characteristic relay times of links, relevant to the respective scales, and a set of temporal reference models that allow for removing selected time-domain correlations one by one

Small But Slow World: How Network Topology and Burstiness Slow Down Spreading

Communication networks show the small-world property of short paths, but the spreading dynamics in them turns out slow. We follow the time evolution of information propagation through communication networks by using the SI model with empirical data on contact sequences. We introduce null models where the sequences are randomly shuffled in different ways, enabling us to distinguish between the contributions of different impeding effects. The slowing down of spreading is found to be caused mostly by weight-topology correlations and the bursty activity patterns of individuals

Threshold model of cascades in temporal networks

Threshold models try to explain the consequences of social influence like the spread of fads and opinions. Along with models of epidemics, they constitute a major theoretical framework of social spreading processes. In threshold models on static networks, an individual changes her state if a certain fraction of her neighbors has done the same. When there are strong correlations in the temporal aspects of contact patterns, it is useful to represent the system as a temporal network. In such a system, not only contacts but also the time of the contacts are represented explicitly. There is a consensus that bursty temporal patterns slow down disease spreading. However, as we will see, this is not a universal truth for threshold models. In this work, we propose an extension of Watts' classic threshold model to temporal networks. We do this by assuming that an agent is influenced by contacts which lie a certain time into the past. I.e., the individuals are affected by contacts within a time window. In addition to thresholds as the fraction of contacts, we also investigate the number of contacts within the time window as a basis for influence. To elucidate the model's behavior, we run the model on real and randomized empirical contact datasets.Comment: 7 pages, 5 figures, 2 table

Universal features of correlated bursty behaviour

Inhomogeneous temporal processes, like those appearing in human communications, neuron spike trains, and seismic signals, consist of high-activity bursty intervals alternating with long low-activity periods. In recent studies such bursty behavior has been characterized by a fat-tailed inter-event time distribution, while temporal correlations were measured by the autocorrelation function. However, these characteristic functions are not capable to fully characterize temporally correlated heterogenous behavior. Here we show that the distribution of the number of events in a bursty period serves as a good indicator of the dependencies, leading to the universal observation of power-law distribution in a broad class of phenomena. We find that the correlations in these quite different systems can be commonly interpreted by memory effects and described by a simple phenomenological model, which displays temporal behavior qualitatively similar to that in real systems

Bursty egocentric network evolution in Skype

In this study we analyze the dynamics of the contact list evolution of millions of users of the Skype communication network. We find that egocentric networks evolve heterogeneously in time as events of edge additions and deletions of individuals are grouped in long bursty clusters, which are separated by long inactive periods. We classify users by their link creation dynamics and show that bursty peaks of contact additions are likely to appear shortly after user account creation. We also study possible relations between bursty contact addition activity and other user-initiated actions like free and paid service adoption events. We show that bursts of contact additions are associated with increases in activity and adoption - an observation that can inform the design of targeted marketing tactics.Comment: 7 pages, 6 figures. Social Network Analysis and Mining (2013