Seismic Risk Analysis of Revenue Losses, Gross Regional Product and transportation systems.

Natural threats like earthquakes, hurricanes or tsunamis have shown seri- ous impacts on communities. In the past, major earthquakes in the United States like Loma Prieta 1989, Northridge 1994, or recent events in Italy like L’Aquila 2009 or Emilia 2012 earthquake emphasized the importance of pre- paredness and awareness to reduce social impacts. Earthquakes impacted businesses and dramatically reduced the gross regional product. Seismic Hazard is traditionally assessed using Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Anal- ysis (PSHA). PSHA well represents the hazard at a specific location, but it’s unsatisfactory for spatially distributed systems. Scenario earthquakes overcome the problem representing the actual distribution of shaking over a spatially distributed system. The performance of distributed productive systems during the recovery process needs to be explored. Scenario earthquakes have been used to assess the risk in bridge networks and the social losses in terms of gross regional product reduction. The proposed method for scenario earthquakes has been applied to a real case study: Treviso, a city in the North East of Italy. The proposed method for scenario earthquakes requires three models: one representation of the sources (Italian Seismogenic Zonation 9), one attenuation relationship (Sa- betta and Pugliese 1996) and a model of the occurrence rate of magnitudes (Gutenberg Richter). A methodology has been proposed to reduce thou- sands of scenarios to a subset consistent with the hazard at each location. Earthquake scenarios, along with Mote Carlo method, have been used to simulate business damage. The response of business facilities to earthquake has been obtained from fragility curves for precast industrial building. Fur- thermore, from business damage the reduction of productivity has been simulated using economic data from the National statistical service and a proposed piecewise “loss of functionality model”. To simulate the economic process in the time domain, an innovative businesses recovery function has been proposed. The proposed method has been applied to generate scenarios earthquakes at the location of bridges and business areas. The proposed selection method- ology has been applied to reduce 8000 scenarios to a subset of 60. Subse- quently, these scenario earthquakes have been used to calculate three system performance parameters: the risk in transportation networks, the risk in terms of business damage and the losses of gross regional product. A novel model for business recovery process has been tested. The proposed model has been used to represent the business recovery process and simulate the effects of government aids allocated for reconstruction. The proposed method has efficiently modeled the seismic hazard using scenario earthquakes. The scenario earthquakes presented have been used to assess possible consequences of earthquakes in seismic prone zones and to increase the preparedness. Scenario earthquakes have been used to sim- ulate the effects to economy of the impacted area; a significant Gross Regional Product reduction has been shown, up to 77% with an earthquake with 0.0003 probability of occurrence. The results showed that limited funds available after the disaster can be distributed in a more efficient way

Threats to soil quality in Denmark - A review of existing knowledge in the context of the EU Soil Thematic Strategy

The EU Commission is preparing a proposal for a Soil Framework Directive with the purpose of protecting the soil resources in Europe. The proposal identifies six major threats to the sustained quality of soils in Europe. This report addresses the threats that are considered most important under the prevailing soil and climatic conditions in Denmark: compaction, soil organic matter decline, and erosion by water and tillage. For each of these threats, the relevance and damage to soil functions as well as the geographic distribution in Denmark are outlined. We suggest a procedure for identifying areas at risk. This exercise involves an explicit identification of: i) the disturbing agent (climate / management) exerting the pressures on soil, and ii) the vulnerability of the soil to those stresses. Risk reduction targets, measures required to reach these targets, and the knowledge gaps and research needs to effectively cope with each threat are discussed. Our evaluation of the threats is based on soil resilience to the imposed stresses. Subsoil compaction is considered a severe threat to Danish soils due to frequent traffic with heavy machinery in modern agriculture and forestry. The soil content of organic matter is critically low for a range of Danish soils, which should be counteracted by appropriate management options. Soil erosion by tillage, and to a lesser degree by water, adversely affects soil quality on much of the farmland because degradation rates are much higher than generation of soil

Continuous maintenance and the future – Foundations and technological challenges

High value and long life products require continuous maintenance throughout their life cycle to achieve required performance with optimum through-life cost. This paper presents foundations and technologies required to offer the maintenance service. Component and system level degradation science, assessment and modelling along with life cycle ‘big data’ analytics are the two most important knowledge and skill base required for the continuous maintenance. Advanced computing and visualisation technologies will improve efficiency of the maintenance and reduce through-life cost of the product. Future of continuous maintenance within the Industry 4.0 context also identifies the role of IoT, standards and cyber security

An integrated molecular and conventional breeding scheme for enhancing genetic gain in maize in Africa

Open Access Journal; Published online: 06 Nov 2019Maize production in West and Central Africa (WCA) is constrained by a wide range of interacting stresses that keep productivity below potential yields. Among the many problems afflicting maize production in WCA, drought, foliar diseases, and parasitic weeds are the most critical. Several decades of efforts devoted to the genetic improvement of maize have resulted in remarkable genetic gain, leading to increased yields of maize on farmers’ fields. The revolution unfolding in the areas of genomics, bioinformatics, and phenomics is generating innovative tools, resources, and technologies for transforming crop breeding programs. It is envisaged that such tools will be integrated within maize breeding programs, thereby advancing these programs and addressing current and future challenges. Accordingly, the maize improvement program within International Institute of Tropical Agriculture (IITA) is undergoing a process of modernization through the introduction of innovative tools and new schemes that are expected to enhance genetic gains and impact on smallholder farmers in the region. Genomic tools enable genetic dissections of complex traits and promote an understanding of the physiological basis of key agronomic and nutritional quality traits. Marker-aided selection and genome-wide selection schemes are being implemented to accelerate genetic gain relating to yield, resilience, and nutritional quality. Therefore, strategies that effectively combine genotypic information with data from field phenotyping and laboratory-based analysis are currently being optimized. Molecular breeding, guided by methodically defined product profiles tailored to different agroecological zones and conditions of climate change, supported by state-of-the-art decision-making tools, is pivotal for the advancement of modern, genomics-aided maize improvement programs. Accelerated genetic gain, in turn, catalyzes a faster variety replacement rate. It is critical to forge and strengthen partnerships for enhancing the impacts of breeding products on farmers’ livelihood. IITA has well-established channels for delivering its research products/technologies to partner organizations for further testing, multiplication, and dissemination across various countries within the subregion. Capacity building of national agricultural research system (NARS) will facilitate the smooth transfer of technologies and best practices from IITA and its partners

A Mathematical model to guide Genetic Engineering of Photosynthetic Metabolism

open5noThe optimization of algae biomass productivity in industrial cultivation systems requires genetic improvement of wild type strains isolated from nature. One of the main factors affecting algae productivity is their efficiency in converting light into chemical energy and this has been a major target of recent genetic efforts. However, photosynthetic productivity in algae cultures depends on many environmental parameters, making the identification of advantageous genotypes complex and the achievement of concrete improvements slow. In this work, we developed a mathematical model to describe the key factors influencing algae photosynthetic productivity in a photobioreactor, using experimental measurements for the WT strain of Nannochloropsis gaditana. The model was then exploited to predict the effect of potential genetic modifications on algae performances in an industrial context, showing the ability to predict the productivity of mutants with specific photosynthetic phenotypes. These results show that a quantitative model can be exploited to identify the genetic modifications with the highest impact on productivity taking into full account the complex influence of environmental conditions, efficiently guiding engineering efforts.embargoed_20181201Perin, Giorgio; Bernardi, Andrea; Bellan, Alessandra; Bezzo, Fabrizio; Morosinotto, TomasPerin, Giorgio; Bernardi, Andrea; Bellan, Alessandra; Bezzo, Fabrizio; Morosinotto, Toma

Effect of climate and geography on worldwide fine resolution economic activity

Geography, including climatic factors, have long been considered potentially important elements in shaping socio-economic activities, alongside other determinants, such as institutions. Here we demonstrate that geography and climate variables satisfactorily explain the worldwide economic activity as measured by the per capita Gross Cell Product (GCP-PC) at a fine geographical resolution, typically much higher than country average. A 1° by 1° GCPPC dataset has been key for establishing and testing a direct relationship between 'local' geography/climate and GCP-PC. Not only have we tested the geography and climate hypothesis using many possible explanatory variables, importantly we have also predicted and reconstructed GCP-PC worldwide by retaining the most significant predictors. While this study confirms that latitude is the most important predictor for GCP-PC when taken in isolation, the accuracy of the GCP-PC prediction is greatly improved when other factors mainly related to variations in climatic variables, rather than average climatic conditions as typically used, are considered. However, latitude diminishes in importance when only the wealthier parts of the globe are considered. This work points to specific features of the climate system which explain economic activity, such as the variability in air pressure. Implications of these findings range from an improved understanding of why socio-economically better-off societies are geographically placed where they are in the present, past and future to informing where new economic activities could be established in order to yield favourable economic outcomes based on geography and climate conditions

Identifying and Forecasting Potential Biophysical Risk Areas within a Tropical Mangrove Ecosystem Using Multi-Sensor Data

Mangroves are one of the most productive ecosystems known for provisioning of various ecosystem goods and services. They help in sequestering large amounts of carbon, protecting coastline against erosion, and reducing impacts of natural disasters such as hurricanes. Bhitarkanika Wildlife Sanctuary in Odisha harbors the second largest mangrove ecosystem in India. This study used Terra, Landsat and Sentinel-1 satellite data for spatio-temporal monitoring of mangrove forest within Bhitarkanika Wildlife Sanctuary between 2000 and 2016. Three biophysical parameters were used to assess mangrove ecosystem health: leaf chlorophyll (CHL), Leaf Area Index (LAI), and Gross Primary Productivity (GPP). A long-term analysis of meteorological data such as precipitation and temperature was performed to determine an association between these parameters and mangrove biophysical characteristics. The correlation between meteorological parameters and mangrove biophysical characteristics enabled forecasting of mangrove health and productivity for year 2050 by incorporating IPCC projected climate data. A historical analysis of land cover maps was also performed using Landsat 5 and 8 data to determine changes in mangrove area estimates in years 1995, 2004 and 2017. There was a decrease in dense mangrove extent with an increase in open mangroves and agricultural area. Despite conservation efforts, the current extent of dense mangrove is projected to decrease up to 10% by the year 2050. All three biophysical characteristics including GPP, LAI and CHL, are projected to experience a net decrease of 7.7%, 20.83% and 25.96% respectively by 2050 compared to the mean annual value in 2016. This study will help the Forest Department, Government of Odisha in managing and taking appropriate decisions for conserving and sustaining the remaining mangrove forest under the changing climate and developmental activities

Hydrologic Simulations of the Maquoketa River Watershed Using SWAT Working Paper 09-WP 49,June 2009

This paper describes the application of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model to the Maquoketa River watershed, located in northeast Iowa. The inputs to the model were obtained from the Environmental Protection Agency’s geographic information/database system called Better Assessment Science Integrating Point and Nonpoint Sources (BASINS). Climatic data from six weather stations located in and around the watershed, and measured streamflow data from a U.S. Geological Survey gage station at the watershed outlet were used in the sensitivity analysis of SWAT model parameters as well as its calibration and validation for watershed hydrology and streamflow. A sensitivity analysis was performed using an influence coefficient method to evaluate surface runoff and base flow variations in response to changes in model input hydrologic parameters. The curve number, evaporation compensation factor, and soil available water capacity were found to be the most sensitive parameters among eight selected parameters when applying SWAT to the Maquoketa River watershed. Model calibration, facilitated by the sensitivity analysis, was performed for the period 1988 through 1993, and validation was performed for 1982 through 1987. The model performance was evaluated by well-established statistical methods and was found to explain at least 86% and 69% of the variability in the measured stream flow data for the calibration and validation periods, respectively. This initial hydrologic modeling analysis will facilitate future applications of SWAT to the Maquoketa River watershed for various watershed analysis, including water quality