Variants of Mixtures: Information Properties and Applications

In recent years, we have studied information properties of various types of mixtures of probability distributions and introduced a new type, which includes previously known mixtures as special cases. These studies are disseminated in different fields: reliability engineering, econometrics, operations research, probability, the information theory, and data mining. This paper presents a holistic view of these studies and provides further insights and examples. We note that the insightful probabilistic formulation of the mixing parameters stipulated by Behboodian (1972) is required for a representation of the well-known information measure of the arithmetic mixture. Applications of this information measure presented in this paper include lifetime modeling, system reliability, measuring uncertainty and disagreement of forecasters, probability modeling with partial information, and information loss of kernel estimation. Probabilistic formulations of the mixing weights for various types of mixtures provide the Bayes-Fisher information and the Bayes risk of the mean residual function

Learning conflict duration: insights from predictive modelling

Why do some conflicts last longer than others? Previous work on conflict duration posits information asymmetries and credible commitment problems can cause protracted civil wars. The bifurcated nature of conflict studies, based on the notion that civil and interstate wars are qualitatively different, has so far prevented studies from including both types of conflict in the same dataset. Thus, empirical evidence is lacking as to whether the explanations apply to both types of conflict, or they are indeed separate phenomena. This dissertation expands on the Cunningham and Lemke (2013) study on combining civil and interstate wars by including a large number of predictors taken from the rich civil war literature. The proposed framework unpacks the bargaining failure framework into three components governing power projection over distance, which I argue to be the main determinant of duration: material capability, politics, and geography. In doing so, I do not discriminate between the ‘types’ of war and provide a general theory of conflict duration. I empirically test the general theory using a multi-method research design. First, I employ predictive modelling techniques such as machine learning, deep learning, and ensemble methods to demonstrate that the majority of predictive covariates of war duration are indeed common to both civil and interstate wars. Further, in most cases, the direction of the effect holds across types, suggesting that the underlying mechanism operates in a similar fashion. Second, I provide a shadow case study of the Sierra Leone Civil War to illustrate how capability shifts can occur on the ground that cannot be captured by observational data. Taken together, I contribute to the rationalist literature by providing a diverse set of empirical evidence showing that a unified model can explain the duration of both types of war

Attitudes towards old age and age of retirement across the world: findings from the future of retirement survey

The 21st century has been described as the first era in human history when the world will no longer be young and there will be drastic changes in many aspects of our lives including socio-demographics, financial and attitudes towards the old age and retirement. This talk will introduce briefly about the Global Ageing Survey (GLAS) 2004 and 2005 which is also popularly known as “The Future of Retirement”. These surveys provide us a unique data source collected in 21 countries and territories that allow researchers for better understanding the individual as well as societal changes as we age with regard to savings, retirement and healthcare. In 2004, approximately 10,000 people aged 18+ were surveyed in nine counties and one territory (Brazil, Canada, China, France, Hong Kong, India, Japan, Mexico, UK and USA). In 2005, the number was increased to twenty-one by adding Egypt, Germany, Indonesia, Malaysia, Poland, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, Sweden, Turkey and South Korea). Moreover, an additional 6320 private sector employers was surveyed in 2005, some 300 in each country with a view to elucidating the attitudes of employers to issues relating to older workers. The paper aims to examine the attitudes towards the old age and retirement across the world and will indicate some policy implications

Untangling hotel industry’s inefficiency: An SFA approach applied to a renowned Portuguese hotel chain

The present paper explores the technical efficiency of four hotels from Teixeira Duarte Group - a renowned Portuguese hotel chain. An efficiency ranking is established from these four hotel units located in Portugal using Stochastic Frontier Analysis. This methodology allows to discriminate between measurement error and systematic inefficiencies in the estimation process enabling to investigate the main inefficiency causes. Several suggestions concerning efficiency improvement are undertaken for each hotel studied.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Computational socioeconomics

Uncovering the structure of socioeconomic systems and timely estimation of socioeconomic status are significant for economic development. The understanding of socioeconomic processes provides foundations to quantify global economic development, to map regional industrial structure, and to infer individual socioeconomic status. In this review, we will make a brief manifesto about a new interdisciplinary research field named Computational Socioeconomics, followed by detailed introduction about data resources, computational tools, data-driven methods, theoretical models and novel applications at multiple resolutions, including the quantification of global economic inequality and complexity, the map of regional industrial structure and urban perception, the estimation of individual socioeconomic status and demographic, and the real-time monitoring of emergent events. This review, together with pioneering works we have highlighted, will draw increasing interdisciplinary attentions and induce a methodological shift in future socioeconomic studies

On the Recognition of Emotion from Physiological Data

This work encompasses several objectives, but is primarily concerned with an experiment where 33 participants were shown 32 slides in order to create ‗weakly induced emotions‘. Recordings of the participants‘ physiological state were taken as well as a self report of their emotional state. We then used an assortment of classifiers to predict emotional state from the recorded physiological signals, a process known as Physiological Pattern Recognition (PPR). We investigated techniques for recording, processing and extracting features from six different physiological signals: Electrocardiogram (ECG), Blood Volume Pulse (BVP), Galvanic Skin Response (GSR), Electromyography (EMG), for the corrugator muscle, skin temperature for the finger and respiratory rate. Improvements to the state of PPR emotion detection were made by allowing for 9 different weakly induced emotional states to be detected at nearly 65% accuracy. This is an improvement in the number of states readily detectable. The work presents many investigations into numerical feature extraction from physiological signals and has a chapter dedicated to collating and trialing facial electromyography techniques. There is also a hardware device we created to collect participant self reported emotional states which showed several improvements to experimental procedure

Knowledge Management Approaches for predicting Biomarker and Assessing its Impact on Clinical Trials

The recent success of companion diagnostics along with the increasing regulatory pressure for better identification of the target population has created an unprecedented incentive for the drug discovery companies to invest into novel strategies for stratified biomarker discovery. Catching with this trend, trials with stratified biomarker in drug development have quadrupled in the last decade but represent a small part of all Interventional trials reflecting multiple co-developmental challenges of therapeutic compounds and companion diagnostics. To overcome the challenge, varied knowledge management and system biology approaches are adopted in the clinics to analyze/interpret an ever increasing collection of OMICS data. By semi-automatic screening of more than 150,000 trials, we filtered trials with stratified biomarker to analyse their therapeutic focus, major drivers and elucidated the impact of stratified biomarker programs on trial duration and completion. The analysis clearly shows that cancer is the major focus for trials with stratified biomarker. But targeted therapies in cancer require more accurate stratification of patient population. This can be augmented by a fresh approach of selecting a new class of biomolecules i.e. miRNA as candidate stratification biomarker. miRNA plays an important role in tumorgenesis in regulating expression of oncogenes and tumor suppressors; thus affecting cell proliferation, differentiation, apoptosis, invasion, angiogenesis. miRNAs are potential biomarkers in different cancer. However, the relationship between response of cancer patients towards targeted therapy and resulting modifications of the miRNA transcriptome in pathway regulation is poorly understood. With ever-increasing pathways and miRNA-mRNA interaction databases, freely available mRNA and miRNA expression data in multiple cancer therapy have created an unprecedented opportunity to decipher the role of miRNAs in early prediction of therapeutic efficacy in diseases. We present a novel SMARTmiR algorithm to predict the role of miRNA as therapeutic biomarker for an anti-EGFR monoclonal antibody i.e. cetuximab treatment in colorectal cancer. The application of an optimised and fully automated version of the algorithm has the potential to be used as clinical decision support tool. Moreover this research will also provide a comprehensive and valuable knowledge map demonstrating functional bimolecular interactions in colorectal cancer to scientific community. This research also detected seven miRNA i.e. hsa-miR-145, has-miR-27a, has- miR-155, hsa-miR-182, hsa-miR-15a, hsa-miR-96 and hsa-miR-106a as top stratified biomarker candidate for cetuximab therapy in CRC which were not reported previously. Finally a prospective plan on future scenario of biomarker research in cancer drug development has been drawn focusing to reduce the risk of most expensive phase III drug failures