A quantum theoretical explanation for probability judgment errors

A quantum probability model is introduced and used to explain human probability judgment errors including the conjunction, disjunction, inverse, and conditional fallacies, as well as unpacking effects and partitioning effects. Quantum probability theory is a general and coherent theory based on a set of (von Neumann) axioms which relax some of the constraints underlying classic (Kolmogorov) probability theory. The quantum model is compared and contrasted with other competing explanations for these judgment errors including the representativeness heuristic, the averaging model, and a memory retrieval model for probability judgments. The quantum model also provides ways to extend Bayesian, fuzzy set, and fuzzy trace theories. We conclude that quantum information processing principles provide a viable and promising new way to understand human judgment and reasoning

Study on Rough Sets and Fuzzy Sets in Constructing Intelligent Information System

Since human being is not an omniscient and omnipotent being, we are actually living in an uncertain world. Uncertainty was involved and connected to every aspect of human life as a quotation from Albert Einstein said: �As far as the laws of mathematics refer to reality, they are not certain. And as far as they are certain, they do not refer to reality.� The most fundamental aspect of this connection is obviously shown in human communication. Naturally, human communication is built on the perception1-based information instead of measurement-based information in which perceptions play a central role in human cognition [Zadeh, 2000]. For example, it is naturally said in our communication that �My house is far from here.� rather than let say �My house is 12,355 m from here�. Perception-based information is a generalization of measurement-based information, where perception-based information such as �John is excellent.� is hard to represent by measurement-based version. Perceptions express human subjective view. Consequently, they tend to lead up to misunderstanding. Measurements then are needed such as defining units of length, time, etc., to provide objectivity as a means to overcome misunderstanding. Many measurers were invented along with their methods and theories of measurement. Hence, human cannot communicate with measurers including computer as a product of measurement era unless he uses measurement-based information. Perceptions are intrinsic aspect in uncertainty-based information. In this case, information may be incomplete, imprecise, fragmentary, not fully reliable, vague, contradictory, or deficient in some other way. 1In psychology, perception is understood as a process of translating sensory stimulation into an organized experience Generally, these various information deficiencies may express different types of uncertainty. It is necessary to construct a computer-based information system called intelligent information system that can process uncertainty-based information. In the future, computers are expected to be able to make communication with human in the level of perception. Many theories were proposed to express and process the types of uncertainty such as probability, possibility, fuzzy sets, rough sets, chaos theory and so on. This book extends and generalizes existing theory of rough set, fuzzy sets and granular computing for the purpose of constructing intelligent information system. The structure of this book is the following: In Chapter 2, types of uncertainty in the relation to fuzziness, probability and evidence theory (belief and plausibility measures) are briefly discussed. Rough set regarded as another generalization of crisp set is considered to represent rough event in the connection to the probability theory. Special attention will be given to formulation of fuzzy conditional probability relation generated by property of conditional probability of fuzzy event. Fuzzy conditional probability relation then is used to represent similarity degree of two fuzzy labels. Generalization of rough set induced by fuzzy conditional probability relation in terms of covering of the universe is given in Chapter 3. In the relation to fuzzy conditional probability relation, it is necessary to consider an interesting mathematical relation called weak fuzzy similarity relation as a generalization of fuzzy similarity relation proposed by Zadeh [1995]. Fuzzy rough set and generalized fuzzy rough set are proposed along with the generalization of rough membership function. Their properties are examined. Some applications of these methods in information system such as α-redundancy of object and dependency of domain attributes are discussed. In addition, multi rough sets based on multi-context of attributes in the presence of multi-contexts information system is defined and proposed in Chapter 4. In the real application, depending on the context, a given object may have different values of attributes. In other words, set of attributes might be represented based on different context, where they may provide different values for a given object. Context can be viewed as background or situation in which somehow it is necessary to group some attributes as a subset of attributes and consider the subset as a context. Finally, Chapter 5 summarizes all discussed in this book and puts forward some future topics of research

Semantic Information Measure with Two Types of Probability for Falsification and Confirmation

Logical Probability (LP) is strictly distinguished from Statistical Probability (SP). To measure semantic information or confirm hypotheses, we need to use sampling distribution (conditional SP function) to test or confirm fuzzy truth function (conditional LP function). The Semantic Information Measure (SIM) proposed is compatible with Shannon’s information theory and Fisher’s likelihood method. It can ensure that the less the LP of a predicate is and the larger the true value of the proposition is, the more information there is. So the SIM can be used as Popper's information criterion for falsification or test. The SIM also allows us to optimize the true-value of counterexamples or degrees of disbelief in a hypothesis to get the optimized degree of belief, i. e. Degree of Confirmation (DOC). To explain confirmation, this paper 1) provides the calculation method of the DOC of universal hypotheses; 2) discusses how to resolve Raven Paradox with new DOC and its increment; 3) derives the DOC of rapid HIV tests: DOC of “+” =1-(1-specificity)/sensitivity, which is similar to Likelihood Ratio (=sensitivity/(1-specificity)) but has the upper limit 1; 4) discusses negative DOC for excessive affirmations, wrong hypotheses, or lies; and 5) discusses the DOC of general hypotheses with GPS as example

Application of Conditional Probability in Constructing Fuzzy Functional Dependency

In real-world application, information is mostly imprecise or ambiguous. Therefore, the motivation of extending classical (crisp) relational database [Codd, 1970] to fuzzy relational database by Buckles and Petry [1982] stems from the need to be able to process and represent vague, imprecise and partially known (incomplete) information. The concept of fuzzy relational database proposed by Buckles and Petry [1982] are necessary to be extended to a more generalized concept of fuzzy relational database, since the data value in domain attributes of the fuzzy relational model is still considered as a subset of atomic data. In this case, each data value stored in the more generalized concept of fuzzy relational database is considered as a fuzzy subset. An important feature of a relational database is to express constraints in sense of relation of data, known as integrity constraints (ICs). For instance, if a relational database contains information about student ID-number, course, unit, term and grade, some constrains such as: “A given ID-number, course, and term give a unique grade”, “number of courses are no more than 6 courses for a given ID-number and term” and “total units are no more than 16 for a given ID-number and term” might be hold. Many types of integrity constraints have been provided since 1970s along with the Codd’s relational database, such as multi-valued dependency proposed by Fagin [1977], join dependency [Nicolas, 1978] [Rissanen, 1978], etc. Among them, functional depen¬dencies (FDs) [Berstein, Swenson, & Tsichritzis, 1975] are one of the most important and widely used in database design. As we extend the classical relational database to fuzzy relational database, it would be necessary to consider integrity constraints that may involve fuzzy value. In fact, fuzzy integrity constraints, such as: “The higher an education someone has, the higher salary he should get”, “almost equally qualified employees should get more or less equal salary” will arise naturally and usefully in real-world application. Therefore, the objective of extending FDs to fuzzy functional dependencies (FFDs) is in necessary to apply FDs in fuzzy relational database [Intan, Mukaidono, 2000a, 2003, 2004]. Various definitions and the notion of a fuzzy functional dependency have been devised since 1988. Among them, Raju and Majumdar [1988] defined FFD based on the membership function of the fuzzy relation; Tripathy, [1990] proposed definition of the FFD in terms of fuzzy Hamming weight; Kiss, [1991] constructed FFD using weighted tuples; Chen [1995], Cubero [1994] and W. Liu [1992,1993] introduced definition of the FFD based on the equality of two possibility distributions, and they used a certain type of implication and expression of cut off; Liao [1997] gave design of the FFD by introducing semantic proximity. In this book, some properties of conditional probability and its relation with fuzzy sets are studied and discussed as an alternative concept to measure similarity of fuzzy labels. Even it could be understood that interpretation of numerical value between fuzzy sets and probability measures are philosophically distinct, basic operations, such as, intersection and union of two fuzzy values can be interpreted as maximum intersection and minimum union of two events. Considering this reason, it is necessary to define three approximate conditional probabilities of two fuzzy events based on minimum, independent and maximum probability intersection between two (fuzzy) events. Moreover, conditional probability of two fuzzy events can be interpreted as probabilistic matching of two fuzzy sets [Baldwin, Martin, Pilsworth, 1995], [Baldwin, Martin, 1996] and as basis of getting similarity of two fuzzy sets and constructing equivalence classes inside their domain attribute. By using this property and Cartesian product operation of fuzzy sets, a concept of fuzzy functional dependency (FFD) is proposed and defined to express integrity constraints that may involve fuzzy value, called fuzzy integrity constraints. It can be proved that the concept of FFD satisfies classical/ crisp relational database by example. Also, inference rules which are similar to Armstrong’s Axioms [Armstrong, 1974] for the FFDs are both sound and complete. Next, a concept of partial FFD is introduced to express the fact as usually found in data that a given attribute domain X do not determine Y completely, but in the partial area of X, it might determine Y. For instance, in the relation between two domains student’s name and student’s ID, student’s ID determines student’s name. It means a given student’s ID certainly gives a unique student’s name. On the other hand, a given student’s name may give more than one student’s ID because it is possible to have more than one student who has the same name. However, in a partial area of student’s name where some students have unique names, student’s name can be considered to determine student’s ID. In addition, approximate data reduction and projection of relations are investigated in order to get relation among the partitions of data values. Here, data values might be considered as crisp as well as fuzzy data. Finally, this book discusses the application of FFDs in constructing fuzzy query relation for query data and approximate natural join of two or more fuzzy query relations in the framework of extended query system [Intan, Mukaidono, 2001, 2002]. The structure of the book is following. In Chapter 2, some basic definitions and notations, such as conditional probability, classical relational database, functional dependency, fuzzy sets, transformation fuzzy set and probability, and fuzzy relational database are recalled. Chapter 3 firstly introduces conditional probability of two fuzzy sets based on the possibility theory [Baldwin, Martin, Pilsworth, 1995]. The next, it provides three approximate interpretations in constructing conditional probability of two fuzzy events (sets) based on minimum, independent and maxi¬mum probability intersection between two (fuzzy) events [Intan, Mukaidono, 2004]. Chapter 4 is devoted to the construction of FFDs based on the concept of conditional probability relations. It is proved that inference rules (Reflexivity, Augmentation and Transitivity) which are similar to Armstrong’s Axioms for FFDs are both sound and complete. A special attention will be given to partial FFD in order to find relation between two partial areas of two attribute domains [Intan, Mukaidono, 2004]. In Chapter 5, the application of FFDs in approximating data reduction and query data are presented [Intan, Mukaidono, 2001, 2002]. This chapter also discussed two other operations called projection and join operations in the relation to approximate data reduction and extended query system respectively [Intan, Mukaidono, 2004]. This book will be closed by summary including suggestion for future work in Chapter 6

General information conditioned by a variable event

The aim of this paper is to present, by axiomatic way, an idea about the general conditional information of a single, fixed fuzzy set when the conditioning fuzzy event is variable. The properties of this conditional information are translated in a system of functional equations. Some classes of solutions of this functional system are founded