Integration of cost-risk assessment of denial of service within an intelligent maintenance system

As organisations become richer in data the function of asset management will have to increasingly use intelligent systems to control condition monitoring systems and organise maintenance. In the future the UK rail industry is anticipating having to optimize capacity by running trains closer to each other. In this situation maintenance becomes extremely problematic as within such a high-performance network a relatively minor fault will impact more trains and passengers; such denial of service causes reputational damage for the industry and causes fines to be levied against the infrastructure owner, Network Rail. Intelligent systems used to control condition monitoring systems will need to optimize for several factors; optimization for minimizing denial of service will be one such factor. With schedules anticipated to be increasingly complicated detailed estimation methods will be extremely difficult to implement. Cost prediction of maintenance activities tend to be expert driven and require extensive details, making automation of such an activity difficult. Therefore a stochastic process will be needed to approach the problem of predicting the denial of service arising from any required maintenance. Good uncertainty modelling will help to increase the confidence of estimates. This paper seeks to detail the challenges that the UK Railway industry face with regards to cost modelling of maintenance activities and outline an example of a suitable cost model for quantifying cost uncertainty. The proposed uncertainty quantification is based on historical cost data and interpretation of its statistical distributions. These estimates are then integrated in a cost model to obtain accurate uncertainty measurements of outputs through Monte-Carlo simulation methods. An additional criteria of the model was that it be suitable for integration into an existing prototype integrated intelligent maintenance system. It is anticipated that applying an integrated maintenance management system will apply significant downward pressure on maintenance budgets and reduce denial of service. Accurate cost estimation is therefore of great importance if anticipated cost efficiencies are to be achieved. While the rail industry has been the focus of this work, other industries have been considered and it is anticipated that the approach will be applicable to many other organisations across several asset management intensive industrie

Towards quantification of condition monitoring benefit for wind turbine generators

Condition monitoring systems are increasingly installed in wind turbine generators with the goal of providing component-specific information to the wind farm operator and hence increase equipment availability through maintenance and operating actions based on this information. In some cases, however, the economic benefits of such systems are unclear. A quantitative measure of these benefits may therefore be of value to utilities and O&M groups involved in planning and operating wind farm installations. The development of a probabilistic model based on discrete-time Markov Chain solved via Monte Carlo methods to meet these requirements is illustrated. Potential value is demonstrated through case study simulations

SelSus: Towards a reference architecture for diagnostics and predictive maintenance using smart manufacturing devices

© 2015 IEEE. We propose a reference architecture, SelSus (SELf-SUStaining Manufacturing Systems) that aims to enable the provisioning of diagnostic and prognostic capabilities in manufacturing systems that utilize the notions of 'smart' automation devices

A review of simulation-based optimisation in maintenance operations

This paper aims to report the state of the art of research in simulation-based optimisation of maintenance operations by systematically classifying the published literature and outlining various tools and techniques used by researchers to model and optimise maintenance operations. The authors investigate the critical elements and aspects of maintenance systems and how well they are represented in the literature as well as various approaches to problem formulation. On this basis, the paper identifies the current gaps and discusses future prospects. It is observed that discrete event is the most widely used simulation technique while non-traditional optimisation algorithms such as genetic algorithms and simulated annealing are the most reported optimisation techniques. Little attention has been paid to the discussion and analysis of different elements in the maintenance environment and their effect on the maintenance system behaviour. There is a need for verifying suggested models through real life case studies

System Reliability-Redundancy Allocation by Evolutionary Computation

International audienc

Assessment of maintenance strategies for railway vehicles using Petri-Nets

The density of railway traffic has been steadily increasing over past years and decades. The developments have implicated a growing need for efficient operation and maintenance of railway rolling stock systems. Also the increased operation of articulated trains has induced new challenges on maintenance organization and planning. Selecting optimal maintenance strategies for each component does not only influence the availability of the railway vehicles but also the operational performance and the profitability of the operator. Suitable tools to analyse, compare and optimize different maintenance strategies are therefore required. Petri nets are such a mathematical tool that and have been applied for maintenance modeling and simulations of different applications. Several types of Petri nets with different properties have been introduced. One of the recently proposed extensions of Petri nets are the Abridged Petri Nets (APN) which fulfill the specific requirements of railway rolling stock maintenance. In this paper, we propose the application of APN in combination with the Monte-Carlo simulation for railway rolling stock maintenance evaluation. In a first step, the applicability of the APN approach was demonstrated on a theoretical case study comprising a condition based maintenance strategy for a system. In a second case study, several real application case studies were modeled and compared based on the processes and real application field data of three railway vehicle components. The tool can be further extended by pre-defining selected strategies that be easily implemented within an overall decision support system

Exploring the role of E-maintenance for value creation in service provision

Technological innovations has always played an important role in economic growth and industrial productivity, but they have also potential to influence service industry. In particular, they can offer support to the process of servitization in manufacturing companies. This article presents a study regarding the prospective value that different technological innovations can offer to maintenance service provision. A review of different baseline technologies and a categorization of several types of E-maintenance tools and applications has been carried out in order to understand the new functionalities that can potentially bring to the provision of smart maintenance services. Moreover, a value analysis method for representing the contribution of tool categories to several value dimensions is presented here. This method can be used for identifying the best technological solution, matching both customer value and provider value, i.e. conforming a win-win situation for the parties involved in the service provision. Some preliminary results based on a survey are eventually given as a first test of its applicability

Integrated maintenance and mission planning using remaining useful life information

The modern world requires high reliability and availability with minimum ownership cost for complex industrial systems (high-value assets). Maintenance and mission planning are two major interrelated tasks affecting availability and ownership cost. Both tasks play critical roles in cost savings and effective utilization of the assets, and cannot be performed without taking each other into consideration. Maintenance schedule may make an asset unavailable or too risky to use for a mission. Mission type and duration affect the health of the system, which affects the maintenance schedule. This article presents a mathematical formulation for integrated maintenance and mission planning for a fleet of high-value assets, using their current and forecast health information. An illustrative example for a fleet of unmanned aerial vehicles is demonstrated and evolutionary-based solutions are presented

Applications of simulation in maintenance research

The area of asset maintenance is becoming increasingly important as greater asset availability is demanded. This is evident in increasingly automated and more tightly integrated production systems as well as in service contracts where the provider is contracted to provide high levels of availability. Simulation techniques are able to model complex systems such as those involving maintenance and can be used to aid performance improvement. This paper examines engineering maintenance simulation research and applications in order to identify apparent research gaps. A systematic literature review was conducted in order to identify the gaps in maintenance systems simulation literature. Simulation has been applied to model different maintenance sub-systems (asset utilisation, asset failure, scheduling, staffing, inventory, etc.) but these are typically addressed in isolation and overall maintenance system behaviour is poorly addressed, especially outside of the manufacturing systems discipline. Assessing the effect of Condition Based Maintenance (CBM) on complex maintenance operations using Discrete Event Simulation (DES) is absent. This paper categorises the application of simulation in maintenance into eight categories