Multi-decadal trends in global terrestrial evapotranspiration and its components

Evapotranspiration (ET) is the process by which liquid water becomes water vapor and energetically this accounts for much of incoming solar radiation. If this ET did not occur temperatures would be higher, so understanding ET trends is crucial to predict future temperatures. Recent studies have reported prolonged declines in ET in recent decades, although these declines may relate to climate variability. Here, we used a well-validated diagnostic model to estimate daily ET during 1981–2012, and its three components: transpiration from vegetation (Et), direct evaporation from the soil (Es) and vaporization of intercepted rainfall from vegetation (Ei). During this period, ET over land has increased significantly (p < 0.01), caused by increases in Et and Ei, which are partially counteracted by Es decreasing. These contrasting trends are primarily driven by increases in vegetation leaf area index, dominated by greening. The overall increase in Et over land is about twofold of the decrease in Es. These opposing trends are not simulated by most Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) models, and highlight the importance of realistically representing vegetation changes in earth system models for predicting future changes in the energy and water cycle

Seasonality of the Transpiration Fraction and Its Controls Across Typical Ecosystems Within the Heihe River Basin

Understanding the seasonality of the transpiration fraction (T/ET) of total terrestrial evapotranspiration (ET) is vital for coupling ecological and hydrological systems and quantifying the heterogeneity among various ecosystems. In this study, a two‐source model was used to estimate T/ET in five ecosystems over the Heihe River Basin. In situ measurements of daily energy flux, sap flow, and surface soil temperature were compared with model outputs for 2014 and 2015. Agreement between model predictions and observations demonstrates good performance in capturing the ecosystem seasonality of T/ET. In addition, sensitivity analysis indicated that the model is insensitive to errors in measured input variables and parameters. T/ET among the five sites showed only slight interannual fluctuations while exhibited significant seasonality. All the ecosystems presented a single‐peak trend, reaching the maximum value in July and fluctuating day to day. During the growing season, average T/ET was the highest for the cropland ecosystem (0.80 ± 0.13), followed by the alpine meadow ecosystem (0.79 ± 0.12), the desert riparian forest Populus euphratica (0.67 ± 0.07), the Tamarix ramosissima Ledeb desert riparian shrub ecosystem (0.67 ± 0.06), and the alpine swamp meadow (0.55 ± 0.23). Leaf area index exerted a first‐order control on T/ET and showed divergence among the five ecosystems because of different vegetation dynamics and environmental conditions (e.g., water availability or vapor pressure deficits). This study quantified transpiration fraction across diverse ecosystems within the same water basin and emphasized the biotic controls on the seasonality of the transpiration fraction

Assessing the ability of MODIS EVI to estimate terrestrial ecosystem gross primary production of multiple land cover types

© 2016 Elsevier Ltd Terrestrial ecosystem gross primary production (GPP) is the largest component in the global carbon cycle. The enhanced vegetation index (EVI) has been proven to be strongly correlated with annual GPP within several biomes. However, the annual GPP-EVI relationship and associated environmental regulations have not yet been comprehensively investigated across biomes at the global scale. Here we explored relationships between annual integrated EVI (iEVI) and annual GPP observed at 155 flux sites, where GPP was predicted with a log-log model: ln(GPP)=a×ln(iEVI)+b. iEVI was computed from MODIS monthly EVI products following removal of values affected by snow or cold temperature and without calculating growing season duration. Through categorisation of flux sites into 12 land cover types, the ability of iEVI to estimate GPP was considerably improved (R2 from 0.62 to 0.74, RMSE from 454.7 to 368.2 g C m−2 yr−1). The biome-specific GPP-iEVI formulae generally showed a consistent performance in comparison to a global benchmarking dataset (R2 = 0.79, RMSE = 387.8 g C m−2 yr−1). Specifically, iEVI performed better in cropland regions with high productivity but poorer in forests. The ability of iEVI in estimating GPP was better in deciduous biomes (except deciduous broadleaf forest) than in evergreen due to the large seasonal signal in iEVI in deciduous biomes. Likewise, GPP estimated from iEVI was in a closer agreement to global benchmarks at mid and high-latitudes, where deciduous biomes are more common and cloud cover has a smaller effect on remote sensing retrievals. Across biomes, a significant and negative correlation (R2 = 0.37, p < 0.05) was observed between the strength (R2) of GPP-iEVI relationships and mean annual maximum leaf area index (LAImax), and the relationship between the strength and mean annual precipitation followed a similar trend. LAImax also revealed a scaling effect on GPP-iEVI relationships. Our results suggest that iEVI provides a very simple but robust approach to estimate spatial patterns of global annual GPP whereas its effect is comparable to various light-use-efficiency and data-driven models. The impact of vegetation structure on accuracy and sensitivity of EVI in estimating spatial GPP provides valuable clues to improve EVI-based models

Water use efficiency of China\u27s terrestrial ecosystems and responses to drought

Water use efficiency (WUE) measures the trade-off between carbon gain and water loss of terrestrial ecosystems, and better understanding its dynamics and controlling factors is essential for predicting ecosystem responses to climate change. We assessed the magnitude, spatial patterns, and trends of WUE of China’s terrestrial ecosystems and its responses to drought using a process-based ecosystem model. During the period from 2000 to 2011, the national average annual WUE (net primary productivity (NPP)/evapotranspiration (ET)) of China was 0.79 g C kg−1 H2O. Annual WUE decreased in the southern regions because of the decrease in NPP and the increase in ET and increased in most northern regions mainly because of the increase in NPP. Droughts usually increased annual WUE in Northeast China and central Inner Mongolia but decreased annual WUE in central China. “Turning-points” were observed for southern China where moderate and extreme droughts reduced annual WUE and severe drought slightly increased annual WUE. The cumulative lagged effect of drought on monthly WUE varied by region. Our findings have implications for ecosystem management and climate policy making. WUE is expected to continue to change under future climate change particularly as drought is projected to increase in both frequency and severity

Estimating causal networks in biosphere–atmosphere interaction with the PCMCI approach

Local meteorological conditions and biospheric activity are tightly coupled. Understanding these links is an essential prerequisite for predicting the Earth system under climate change conditions. However, many empirical studies on the interaction between the biosphere and the atmosphere are based on correlative approaches that are not able to deduce causal paths, and only very few studies apply causal discovery methods. Here, we use a recently proposed causal graph discovery algorithm, which aims to reconstruct the causal dependency structure underlying a set of time series. We explore the potential of this method to infer temporal dependencies in biosphere-atmosphere interactions. Specifically we address the following questions: How do periodicity and heteroscedasticity influence causal detection rates, i.e. the detection of existing and non-existing links? How consistent are results for noise-contaminated data? Do results exhibit an increased information content that justifies the use of this causal-inference method? We explore the first question using artificial time series with well known dependencies that mimic real-world biosphere-atmosphere interactions. The two remaining questions are addressed jointly in two case studies utilizing observational data. Firstly, we analyse three replicated eddy covariance datasets from a Mediterranean ecosystem at half hourly time resolution allowing us to understand the impact of measurement uncertainties. Secondly, we analyse global NDVI time series (GIMMS 3g) along with gridded climate data to study large-scale climatic drivers of vegetation greenness. Overall, the results confirm the capacity of the causal discovery method to extract time-lagged linear dependencies under realistic settings. The violation of the method's assumptions increases the likelihood to detect false links. Nevertheless, we consistently identify interaction patterns in observational data. Our findings suggest that estimating a directed biosphere-atmosphere network at the ecosystem level can offer novel possibilities to unravel complex multi-directional interactions. Other than classical correlative approaches, our findings are constrained to a few meaningful set of relations which can be powerful insights for the evaluation of terrestrial ecosystem models

Quantifying terrestrial ecosystem carbon dynamics with mechanistically-based biogeochemistry models and in situ and remotely sensed data

Terrestrial ecosystem plays a critical role in the global carbon cycle and climate system. Therefore, it is important to accurately quantify the carbon dynamics of terrestrial ecosystem under future climatic change condition. This dissertation evaluates the regional carbon dynamics by using upscaling approach, mechanistically-based biogeochemistry models and in situ and remotely sensed data. The upscaling studies based on FLUXNET network has provided us the spatial and temporal pattern of the carbon fluxes but it fails to consider the atmospheric CO2 effect given its important physiological role in carbon assimilation. In the second chapter, we consider the effect of atmospheric CO2 using an artificial neural network (ANN) approach to upscale the AmeriFlux tower of net ecosystem exchange (NEE) and the derived gross primary productivity (GPP) to the conterminous United States. We found that atmospheric CO 2effect on GPP/NEE exhibited a great spatial and seasonal variability. Further analysis suggested that air temperature played an important role in determining the atmospheric CO2 effects on carbon fluxes. In addition, the simulation that did not consider atmospheric CO2 failed to detect ecosystem responses to droughts in part of the US in 2006. The study suggested that the spatially and temporally varied atmospheric CO2 concentrations should be factored into carbon quantification when scaling eddy flux data to a region. The process-based ecosystem models are useful tools to predicting future change in the terrestrial ecosystem. However, they suffer the great uncertainty induced by model structure and parameters. The carbon isotope (13C) discrimination by terrestrial plants, involves the biophysical and biogeochemistry processes and exhibits seasonal and spatial variations, which may provide additional constraints on model parameters. In the third chapter, we found that using foliar 13C composition data, model parameters were constrained to a relatively narrow space and the site-level model simulations were slightly better than that without the foliar 13C constraint. The model extrapolations with three stomatal schemes all showed that the estimation uncertainties of regional carbon fluxes were reduced by about 40%. In addition, tree ring data have great potentials in addressing the forest response to climatic changes compared with mechanistic model simulations, eddy flux measurement and manipulative experiments. In the fourth chapter, we collected the tree ring isotopic carbon data at 12 boreal forest sites to develop a linear regression model, and the model was extrapolated to the whole boreal region to obtain the water use efficiency (WUE) and GPP spatial and temporal variation from 1948 to 2010. Our results demonstrated that most of boreal regions except parts of Alaska showed a significant increasing WUE trend during the study period and the increasing magnitude was much higher than estimations from other land surface models. Our predicted GPP by the WUE definition algorithm was comparable with site observation, while for the revised light use efficiency algorithm, GPP estimation was higher than site observation as well as land surface model estimates. In addition, the increasing GPP trends estimated by two algorithms were similar with land surface model simulations

Impacts of Climate Extremes on Terrestrial Productivity

Terrestrial biosphere absorbs approximately 28% of anthropogenic CO2 emissions. This terrestrial carbon sink might become saturated in a future climate regime. To explore the issues associated with this topic, an accurate estimate of gross primary production (GPP) of global terrestrial ecosystems is needed. A major uncertainty in modeling global terrestrial GPP is the parameter of light use efficiency (LUE). Most LUE estimates in global models are satellite-based and coarsely measured with emphasis on environmental variables. Others are from eddy covariance towers with much greater spatial and temporal data quality and emphasis on mechanistic processes, but in a limited number of sites. In this study, we conducted a comprehensive global study of tower-based LUE from 237 FLUXNET towers, and scaled up LUEs from in-situ tower level to global biome level. We integrated the tower-based LUE estimates with key environmental and biological variables at 0.5º × 0.5º grid-cell resolutions, using a random forest regression (RFR) approach. Then we developed a RFR-LUE-GPP model using the grid-cell LUE data. In order to calibrate the LUE model, we developed a data-driven RFR-GPP model using random forest regression method only. Our results showed LUE varies largely with latitude. We estimated a global area-weighted average of LUE at 1.23±0.03 gC m-2 MJ-1 APAR, which led to an estimate of global gross primary production (GPP) of 107.5±2.5 Gt C /year from 2001 to 2005. Large uncertainties existed in GPP estimations over sparsely vegetated areas covered by savannas and woody savannas at middle to low latitude (i.e. 20ºS to 40ºS and 5ºN to 40ºN) due to the lack of available data. Model results were improved by incorporating Köppen climate types to represent climate/meteorological information in machine learning modeling. This brought a new understanding to the recognized problem of climate-dependence of spring onset of photosynthesis and the challenges in accurately modeling the biome GPP of evergreen broad leaf forests (EBF). The divergent responses of GPP to temperature and precipitation at mid-high latitudes and at mid-low latitudes echo the necessity of modeling GPP separately by latitudes. We also used a perfect-deficit approach to identify forest canopy photosynthetic capacity (CPC) deficits and analyze how they correlate to climate extremes, based on observational data measured by the eddy covariance method at 27 forest sites over 146 site-years. We found that droughts severely affect the carbon assimilation capacities of evergreen broadleaf forest and deciduous broadleaf forest. The carbon assimilation capacities of Mediterranean forests were highly sensitive to climate extremes, while marine forest climates tended to be insensitive to climate extremes. Our estimates suggest an average global reduction of forest canopy photosynthetic capacity due to unfavorable climate extremes of 6.3 Pg C (~5.2% of global gross primary production) per growing season over 2001-2010, with evergreen broadleaf forests contributing 52% of the total reduction. At biome-scale, terrestrial carbon uptake is controlled mainly by weather variability. Observational data from a global monitoring network indicate that the sensitivity of terrestrial carbon sequestration to mean annual temperature (T) breaks down at a threshold value of 16oC, above which terrestrial CO2 fluxes are controlled by dryness rather than temperature. Here we show that since 1948 warming climate has moved the 16oC T latitudinal belt poleward. Land surface area with T \u3e16oC and now subject to dryness control rather than temperature as the regulator of carbon uptake has increased by 6% and is expected to increase by at least another 8% by 2050