Development of algorithms and software for forecasting, nowcasting and variability of TEC

Total Electron Content (TEC) is an important characteristic of the ionosphere relevant to communications. Unpredictable variability of the ionospheric parameters due to various disturbances limits the efficiencies of communications, radar and navigation systems. Therefore forecasting and nowcasting of TEC are important in the planning and operation of Earth-space and satellite-to-satellite communication systems. Near-Earth space processes are complex being highly nonlinear and time varying with random variations in parameters where mathematical modeling is extremely difficult if not impossible. Therefore data driven models such as Neural Network (NN) based models are considered and found promising in modeling such processes. In this paper the NN based METU-NN model is introduced to forecast TEC values for the intervals ranging from 1 to 24 h in advance. Forecast and nowcast of TEC values are also considered based on TEC database. Day-to-day and hour to-hour variability of TEC are also estimated using statistical methods. Another statistical approach based on the clustering technique is developed and a preprocessing approach is demonstrated for the forecast of ionospheric critical frequency foF2

Non-parametric Bayesian modeling of complex networks

Modeling structure in complex networks using Bayesian non-parametrics makes it possible to specify flexible model structures and infer the adequate model complexity from the observed data. This paper provides a gentle introduction to non-parametric Bayesian modeling of complex networks: Using an infinite mixture model as running example we go through the steps of deriving the model as an infinite limit of a finite parametric model, inferring the model parameters by Markov chain Monte Carlo, and checking the model's fit and predictive performance. We explain how advanced non-parametric models for complex networks can be derived and point out relevant literature

Modeling commuting systems through a complex network analysis: a study of the Italian islands of Sardinia and Sicily

This study analyzes the inter-municipal commuting systems of the Italian islands of Sardinia and Sicily, employing weighted network analysis technique. Based on the results obtained for the Sardinian commuting network, the network analysis is used to identify similarities and dissimilarities between the two systems

Brain networks under attack : robustness properties and the impact of lesions

A growing number of studies approach the brain as a complex network, the so-called ‘connectome’. Adopting this framework, we examine what types or extent of damage the brain can withstand—referred to as network ‘robustness’—and conversely, which kind of distortions can be expected after brain lesions. To this end, we review computational lesion studies and empirical studies investigating network alterations in brain tumour, stroke and traumatic brain injury patients. Common to these three types of focal injury is that there is no unequivocal relationship between the anatomical lesion site and its topological characteristics within the brain network. Furthermore, large-scale network effects of these focal lesions are compared to those of a widely studied multifocal neurodegenerative disorder, Alzheimer’s disease, in which central parts of the connectome are preferentially affected. Results indicate that human brain networks are remarkably resilient to different types of lesions, compared to other types of complex networks such as random or scale-free networks. However, lesion effects have been found to depend critically on the topological position of the lesion. In particular, damage to network hub regions—and especially those connecting different subnetworks—was found to cause the largest disturbances in network organization. Regardless of lesion location, evidence from empirical and computational lesion studies shows that lesions cause significant alterations in global network topology. The direction of these changes though remains to be elucidated. Encouragingly, both empirical and modelling studies have indicated that after focal damage, the connectome carries the potential to recover at least to some extent, with normalization of graph metrics being related to improved behavioural and cognitive functioning. To conclude, we highlight possible clinical implications of these findings, point out several methodological limitations that pertain to the study of brain diseases adopting a network approach, and provide suggestions for future research

Internal combustion engine sensor network analysis using graph modeling

In recent years there has been a rapid development in technologies for smart monitoring applied to many different areas (e.g. building automation, photovoltaic systems, etc.). An intelligent monitoring system employs multiple sensors distributed within a network to extract useful information for decision-making. The management and the analysis of the raw data derived from the sensor network includes a number of specific challenges still unresolved, related to the different communication standards, the heterogeneous structure and the huge volume of data. In this paper we propose to apply a method based on complex network theory, to evaluate the performance of an Internal Combustion Engine. Data are gathered from the OBD sensor subset and from the emission analyzer. The method provides for the graph modeling of the sensor network, where the nodes are represented by the sensors and the edge are evaluated with non-linear statistical correlation functions applied to the time series pairs. The resulting functional graph is then analyzed with the topological metrics of the network, to define characteristic proprieties representing useful indicator for the maintenance and diagnosis

A simple spatiotemporal evolution model of a transmission power grid

In this paper, we present a model for the spatial and temporal evolution of a particularly large human-made network: the 400-kV French transmission power grid. This is based on 1) an attachment procedure that diminishes the connection probability between two nodes as the network grows and 2) a coupled cost function characterizing the available budget at every time step. Two differentiated and consecutive processes can be distinguished: a first global space-filling process and a secondary local meshing process that increases connectivity at a local level. Results show that even without power system engineering design constraints (i.e., population and energy demand), the evolution of a transmission network can be remarkably explained by means of a simple attachment procedure. Given a distribution of resources and a time span, the model can also be used to generate the probability distribution of cable lengths at every time step, thus facilitating network planning. Implications for network's fragility are suggested as a starting point for new design perspectives in this kind of infrastructures.Peer ReviewedPostprint (author's final draft

The flow of power law fluids in elastic networks and porous media

The flow of power law fluids, which include shear thinning and shear thickening as well as Newtonian as a special case, in networks of interconnected elastic tubes is investigated using a residual based pore scale network modeling method with the employment of newly derived formulae. Two relations describing the mechanical interaction between the local pressure and local cross sectional area in distensible tubes of elastic nature are considered in the derivation of these formulae. The model can be used to describe shear dependent flows of mainly viscous nature. The behavior of the proposed model is vindicated by several tests in a number of special and limiting cases where the results can be verified quantitatively or qualitatively. The model, which is the first of its kind, incorporates more than one major non-linearity corresponding to the fluid rheology and conduit mechanical properties, that is non-Newtonian effects and tube distensibility. The formulation, implementation and performance indicate that the model enjoys certain advantages over the existing models such as being exact within the restricting assumptions on which the model is based, easy implementation, low computational costs, reliability and smooth convergence. The proposed model can therefore be used as an alternative to the existing Newtonian distensible models; moreover it stretches the capabilities of the existing modeling approaches to reach non-Newtonian rheologies.Comment: 12 pages, 4 figure