The European Green Deal after Corona: Implications for EU climate policy. CEPS policy Insights No 2020-06 / March 2020

Climate change policy cannot be the first priority of the EU for the immediate future. However, in spite of the corona-crisis the urgency of climate change mitigation has not disappeared. The post-corona recovery can both put the EU’s decarbonisation progress back on track – after low-carbon investments will inevitably take a hit – but the EU’s Green Deal proposals can likewise support the general economic recovery. It will be important to ensure that recovery measures are compatible with global climate change and European Green Deal priorities so that stimulus money will flow to economic activities that have a place in a climate-neutral world. As time passes, the re-launch may actually offer a unique opportunity for the EU to live up to the Green Deal’s promise of economic modernisation along the Paris decarbonisation objectives. The period we have until the relaunch should be used to develop a new agenda. These ideas will not per se be off-the-shelf but go beyond current solutions for decarbonisation. Instead of tinkering around the margins, the EU should focus on transformational technologies, and for example go big on low-carbon infrastructure, efficient buildings, and lead markets to boost demand for climate-neutral industry

Editor\u27s Note

Stephanie Heckman is a visual artist who attended the Glasgow conference. “I attended COP26 as a visual storyteller,’ she says. “Visual storytelling (known also as graphic recording) involves the use of graphics, drawings and hand lettering to capture the essence of collective conversation. It is a tool for live notetaking and sense-making; it stimulates participants to engage with each other and complex subject matter, and makes the outcomes more memorable, engaging and accessible to others not present at these conversations.” Stephanie was an accredited observer delegate at COP26 and a “civic participant” in the many events happening around Glasgow at the time. “I captured my impressions in daily watercolour visual summaries,’ she says, “as well as a number of graphic recordings commissioned by official and unofficial side events. All of these I compiled in a ‘COP26 Visual Report’, to share what it was like to be present, on the ground at COP26 in Glasgow.” This visual report is the subject matter of this special issue of the New England Journal of Public Policy. At Sharm El Sheikh, Stephanie will again be an accredited delegate but working inside the negotiating tent alongside the UN Climate Secretariat itself to help bring clarity through imagery that crosses language and cultural barriers to its proceedings as they are happening. We look forward to bringing you that visual report in a forthcoming issue of the journal

Global Climate Action 2022: How have international initiatives delivered, and what more is possible

Contains fulltext : 285265.pdf (Publisher’s version ) (Open Access)This report is the latest stocktake of international cooper- ative climate action. International cooperative initiatives (ICIs) have been a major feature of international climate governance ever since the UNFCCC started recording them in 2013. These partnerships engage a wide range of non- state and subnational actors, including businesses, inves- tors, civil society, national governments, and international organizations. We identified 601 ICIs launched since 2013 with more than 70,000 instances1 of participation by cities and regions, businesses, and by domestic and international NGOs. The total number of ICIs covered in this study has more than doubled compared to previous analyses as a result of examining outcomes from all major climate summits and campaigns since 2014. The growth of active initiatives (85% of all ICIs launched since 2013) has flat- tened since 2019. This is partly explained by the expiration of many initiatives that were launched prior or around the UN Climate Conference in Paris in 2015. The outbreak of the COVID 19 pandemic may also explain lower growth of new initiatives, especially in 2020. Overall productivity of initiatives is trending downwards. Through assessing the extent whether initiatives’ outputs (e.g., infrastructure, research, new installations) are consist- ent with their functions (e.g., training, norm-/standard set- ting, technical on-the-ground implementation), we observed a higher share of low or non-performing initiatives in both mitigation and adaptation since 2019. Overall productivity of initiatives is also trending downwards. ICIs have been launched without further implementation and operation- alization of commitments. This gap between commitments and implementation risks to undermine the credibility of ICIs and the campaigns and summits that convene them. The downwards trend in productivity may be explained by ICIs initially picking ‘low-hanging fruit’ and subsequently having to take more difficult measures. Moreover, the COVID-19 pandemic has likely affected the performance of ICIs. During the pandemic, ICIs’ production of outputs that are location-specific (such as in-person trainings, and new infrastructure or installations) decreased at a faster rate than those that are not location specific (such as websites, online platforms, and research publications). Conversely, we observe a rapid growth of webcasted events, which may reflect a replacement of physical activities by virtual ones. Our analysis suggests a strong and growing underrep- resentation of the Global South. Although ICIs have great potential to contribute to sustainable development in devel- oping countries, studies have consistently shown a strong underrepresentation of the Global South. Implementation disproportionately takes place in the Global North. In line with previous assessments our analysis shows the under- representation of funders, leaders, and participants of ICIs based in non-OECD countries. Moreover, since 2015 the share of outputs produced in the Global North has steadily grown. Some imbalances are to be expected as they appro- priately and reflect differentiated responsibilities and the need for a strong focus on climate mitigation. Nonetheless, the benefits of ICIs, particularly adaptation and resilience building, should also accrue to developing countries. Summit and campaign organizers should steer towards higher performance by setting requirements for ICIs, particularly among initiatives that are launched at cli- mate conferences, summits and by COP presidencies. For instance, before featuring ICIs at climate conferences, organizers should require ICIs to provide evidence that they are making progress against targets and/or have capacities and resources to deliver on pledges. Possible measures identified in the literature include the appointment of dedi- cated staff and/or a secretariat, regular reporting, credible budgets, and openness for new partners to join an initiative, while facilitating interfaces between non-state, subnational actors, policymakers and funders. The report assessed the potential contributions of 12 international sector initiatives launched around and during COP26 (hereinafter, ‘Glasgow initiatives’) on future green- house gas (GHG) emission reductions. We found that the theoretical coverage of these Glasgow initiatives is large: they cover sectors that could potentially lead to 11 GtCO2e lower emissions in 2030 compared to the aggregate of NDCs, addressing a considerable part of the ‘ambition gap’ between the NDC scenario and the benchmark 1.5°C scenario (Figure ES-1). However, not all governments have signed up and impact of signatories is quite small because many already have the action included in their NDC: There- fore, a full implementation of the initiatives’ 1.5°C-aligned goals by the current signatories would only lead to about 5 GtCO2e of emission reductions additional to the NDC scenario (Figure ES- 1). Ambition can be raised in two ways based on these results: First, the biggest potential lies in additional governments signing up to initiatives that have not yet done so (6 GtCO2e). The theory of change of the initiatives is to put non-signatories on the spot, but membership since the Glasgow COP has changed only marginally. Second, govern- ments that have signed up have not yet fully taken these actions into account in their NDCs and therefore could increase the ambition in their NDCs (5 GtCO2e). Future COPs could generate momentum in sectors not covered by the Glasgow initiatives. Although the Glasgow initiatives’ emission reduction potential is substantial, there are still sectors in which momentum for rapid transition toward decarbonisation is needed, including the buildings sector and heavy industry sectors other than steel, such as chemicals and cement. These sectors have not been well covered by ICIs, especially by those that involve large emitting countries and established international institutions. The presidencies of the next few COPs as well as the UN Climate Change High-Level Champions may take the leader- ship to generate momentum to accelerate decarbonisation in these sectors. We also compared these Glasgow initiatives to those pre- viously launched at major international conferences, which have shown mixed performance results , in terms of, for example, financing and reporting requirements. The lim- ited literature indicates that there continues to be a lack of enforcement mechanisms in some Glasgow initiatives. However, there are also noticeable improvements in other Glasgow initiatives , such as annual progress assessment mandated to international organisations and, more impor- tantly, securing finance for implementation. Continued political drive from national governments can help realize the Glasgow initiatives’ potential. The political drive as shown by the UK Presidency has been crucial for establishing the Glasgow initiatives with their launch. Continued political drive is required for the poten- tial impact of the initiatives to materialise and expand. Upcoming COP Presidencies and UN Climate Change High- Level Champions may represent this political drive and generate more leadership, particularly among large emitting countries, in order to maintain momentum and credibility after COP27 and to drive towards more signatories and implementation of global climate action.28 p

Inside COP26: narratives and dialogues dealing with climate justice and fossil fuel-non proliferation treaty

openAd oggi, il cambiamento climatico è una delle maggiori sfide che l’umanità sta affrontando per quanto riguarda la salvaguardia della biosfera, incluso l’essere umano stesso. Con riferimento al periodo tra il 1850 e il 1900, osservando le temperature medie globali, gli ultimi otto anni sono stati i più caldi mai registrati. Secondo l’ultimo report dell’International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, AR6), le attività umane hanno inequivocabilmente influenzato il cambiamento climatico e i relativi impatti su ecosistemi e società. La diplomazia climatica riguarda i processi di negoziazione della governance al fine di raggiungere accordi internazionali contro il cambiamento climatico. La Conferenza delle Parti (COP) è il contesto politico all’interno del quale vengono prese le decisioni necessarie al fine di stabilizzare le emissioni dei gas serra (GHG) e promuovere un percorso di sviluppo sostenibile. Alla COP21 del 2015, le Nazioni Unite hanno stipulato un accordo internazionale globale per affrontare la crisi climatica: l'Accordo di Parigi. L’obiettivo è quello di ridurre le emissioni di gas serra in modo da non superare i 2°C di aumento delle temperature globali, cercando di limitarsi ad 1.5°C grazie all’implementazione di misure per la mitigazione e l’adattamento, e promuovendo un modello di governance multi-livello. L’ultima COP rilevante, basandosi sui risultati delle negoziazioni, è stata la COP26 (2021) a Glasgow. Questa ricerca, implementata grazie al progetto “Visto Climatico” analizza la COP26 dal suo interno investigando i temi ed i risultati fondamentali e concentrandosi sulla giustizia climatica e sulle iniziative di non proliferazione dei combustibili fossili come il Trattato di Non Proliferazione Fossile (FFNPT).At present, climate change is one of the most important challenges which humanity is facing to safeguard the Biosphere, including human beings. The last eight years on record have been the hottest eight ever recorded in terms of global mean temperature, since reference period 1850-1900. The last report of the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, AR6) declared unequivocal the influence of human activities on the actual climate change and the relative impacts on ecosystems and societies. Climate diplomacy concerns the negotiation process of governance to reach international agreements against climate change. The Conference of Parties (COP) is the political context where the promotion of the necessary decisions have been taken with the main goal to stabilize the greenhouse gasses (GHG) emission and define a sustainable development path. During the COP21 in 2015, the United Nation defined a global international pledge to tackle the ongoing climate crisis: the Paris Agreement. The goal is to cut off the GHG emission and not exceed the 2°C of global warming , aiming to stay below 1.5°C through the implementation of mitigation and adaptation measures as well promoting a multilevel governance model. The last relevant COP based on the negotiation results obtained is the COP26 (2021) in Glasgow. The present research implemented thanks to the “Visto Climatico” project analyses from inside the COP26 with the aims to investigate the key aspects and outcomes focusing on the fossil fuel non-proliferation initiative as the Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty (FFNPT) and climate justice

Преглед на политики и акции за справување со климатските промени- КОП 26 - дали е тоа последната можност?

The world is facing the visible and potential consequences of climate change. No place on the Earth is immune to these changes. Current policy applied worldwide anticipates global warming of about 2.7oC compared to pre-industrial level by the end of the century. By implementation of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), warming will be kept to 2.4oC. If long-term commitment targets or net-zero targets are included, then warming would be kept to about 2.1oC above the pre-industrial levels. The warming projections dropped by 0.3oC after the made pledges and established targets by the USA and Peoples’ Republic of China. According to the “optimistic” scenario, if the 140 analysed countries reach the zero emission targets, then the average warming will be 1.8oC, or below 2oC. There is a significant gap between the pledges made by the governments and the total level of actions they have undertaken so far.With the new economic challenges, it is clear that we are at a crossroads. The impact of COVID-19 crisis will be crucial for the future of the climate policy. Climate changes will not wait. Their threat is over our heads and each and every day we face them. Every individual has a role to play in dealing with global climate change and we all can contribute to this threat if we all work together in a synchronous way. A greater political involvement is needed along with collective actions taken by all social actors. Over the last two years, the World Health Organization has advocated for greater inclusion of health authorities and services in Nationally determined contributions through activities to reduce the implications on health by climate change. Светот се соочува со видливи и потенцијалнипоследици од климатскитепромени. Нема место на Земјатакое не езафатеноодовиепромени. Сегашната политика што се применуваширумсветотпредвидуваглобалнозатоплување од околу 2,7oC во споредба со прединдустрискотониво до крајот на векот. Со имплементација на националнитеодреденипридонеси (NDCs), затоплувањетоќе се одржи на 2,4oC. Доколку се вклучатдолгорочни цели или целите на ”net-zero”, тогашзатоплувањето би се задржало на околу 2,1oC над прединдустрискитенивоа. Проекциите за затоплување се намалија за 0,3oC по даденитеветувања и воспоставените цели од страна на САД и Народна РепубликаКина. Според „оптимистичкото“ сценарио, доколку 140-те анализираниземјигидостигнат целите за нултаемисија на штетнигасови, тогашпросечнотозатоплувањеќе биде 1,8oC или под 2oC. Постои значителен јаз помеѓуветувањатададени од страна на владите и вкупнотониво на активности штотиегипрезеледосега. Со новитеекономскипредизвици, јасно е дека сме на крстопат. Влијанието на КОВИД-19 пандемијата ќе биде клучно за иднината на политиката поврзана со климатските промени. Климатскитепромени нема да чекаат. Нивнатазакана е над нашитеглави и секојден се соочуваме со нив. Секојпоединецимаулога во справувањето со глобалнитеклиматскипромени и сите ниеможеме да придонесеме за отстранување на оваазаканаако сите работиме заедно на синхронизиран начин. Потребно е поголемо политичко вклучување како и колективни активности преземени од сите општествени чинители. Во текот на последните две години, Светската здравствена организација се залагаше за поголемо вклучување на здравствените власти и услуги во Национално одредени придонеси преку активности за намалување на импликациите врз здравјето од климатските промени.

Montreal to Glasgow

Alex Lemery connects COP26 to past climate talks and the role of the international community in solving the climate crisis

Moving from talk to action on Africa’s climate change adaptation

During COP26, the LSE Firoz Lalji Institute for Africa asked leading thinkers and practitioners on Africa and climate change how the continent should best adapt to potentially severe, and already evident, environmental changes. Dr Richard Munang, Africa Regional Climate Change Coordinator at the UN Environment Programme, outlines five key areas