A Study of the Impact of Information Blackouts on the Bullwhip Effect of a Supply Chain Using Discrete-Event Simulations

This study adds to the supply chain management literature by introducing and investigating information blackouts, sudden and short-duration failure of the information flow. This study aims to contribute to the literature in following ways: first, to define information blackouts in a supply chain. Second, to investigate the response of supply chains to information blackouts using discrete-event simulation. Prior research has focused more on analyzing systemic disruptions to supply chains from well-known sources. We expect the results of this study to be useful to supply chain managers in disaster prone areas

The use of disaggregated demand information to improve forecasts and stock allocation during sales promotions: a simulation and optimisation study using supermarket loyalty card data

Our work highlights the importance of using disaggregated demand information at store level to improve sales forecasts and stock allocation during sales promotions. Monte Carlo simulation and optimisation modelling were used to estimate short-term promotional impacts. Supermarket loyalty card data was used from a major UK retailer to identify the benefits of using disaggregated demand data for improved forecasting and stock allocation. The results suggest that there is a high degree of heterogeneity in demand at individual store level due to number of factors including the weather, the characteristics of shoppers, the characteristics of products and store format, all of which conspire to generate significant variation in promotional uplifts. The paper is the first to use supermarket loyalty card data to generate store level promotional forecasts and quantify the benefits of disaggregating the allocation of promotional stock to the level of individual stores rather than regional distribution centres

PERCEPÇÕES DOS VAREJISTAS DA CADEIA DE SUPRIMENTOS DA INDÚSTRIA FARMACÊUTICA EM RELAÇÃO AO EFEITO CHICOTE (EC): UMA ABORDAGEM QUALITATIVA

O presente trabalho buscou analisar as percepções dos varejistas da cadeia de suprimentos da indústria farmacêutica, identificando os fatores que afetam o efeito chicote, bem como os impactos desses fatores sobre o fenômeno. Para atingir este objetivo, fez-se uso de uma abordagem qualitativa com profissionais responsáveis pela área de suprimentos de três farmácias localizadas em Cuiabá-MT. As principais características e fatores relacionados ao efeito chicote foram: i) pouco ou nenhum conhecimento sobre o EC; ii) ausência de práticas ou ações para mitigar o fenômeno; iii) ineficiência no processo de previsão de demanda; iv) ausência de compartilhamento de informações com fornecedores; vi) ausência do processo de planejamento e reposição colaborativos; vii) aumento do número de pedidos, tamanho dos lotes e dos estoques de segurança devido ao atraso no recebimento de produtos; e, viii) pedidos inchados por conta de promoções e interrupção de fornecimento de produtos por parte dos fabricantes devido a paradas programadas

Strategies to Improve Data Quality for Forecasting Repairable Spare Parts

Poor input data quality used in repairable spare parts forecasting by aerospace small and midsize enterprises (SME) suppliers results in poor inventory practices that manifest into higher costs and critical supply shortage risks. Guided by the data quality management (DQM) theory as the conceptual framework, the purpose of this exploratory multiple case study was to identify the key strategies that the aerospace SME repairable spares suppliers use to maximize their input data quality used in forecasting repairable spare parts. The multiple case study comprised of a census sample of 6 forecasting business leaders from aerospace SME repairable spares suppliers located in the states of Florida and Kansas. The sample was collected via semistructured interviews and supporting documentation from the consenting participants and organizational websites. Eight core themes emanated from the application of the content data analysis process coupled with methodological triangulation. These themes were labeled as establish data governance, identify quality forecast input data sources, develop a sustainable relationship and collaboration with customers and vendors, utilize a strategic data quality system, conduct continuous input data quality analysis, identify input data quality measures, incorporate continuous improvement initiatives, and engage in data quality training and education. Of the 8 core themes, 6 aligned to the DQM theory\u27s conceptual constructs while 2 surfaced as outliers. The key implication of the research toward positive social change may include the increased situational awareness for SME forecasting business leaders to focus on enhancing business practices for input data quality to forecast repairable spare parts to attain sustainable profits

Optimising supermarket promotions of fast moving consumer goods using disaggregated sales data: A case study of Tesco and their small and medium sized suppliers

The use of price promotions for fast moving consumer goods (FMCG’s) by supermarkets has increased substantially over the last decade, with significant implications for all stakeholders (suppliers, service providers & retailers) in terms of profitability and waste. The overall impact of price promotions depends on the complex interplay of demand and supply side factors, which has received limited attention in the academic literature. There is anecdotal evidence that in many cases, and particularly for products supplied by small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs), price promotions are implemented with limited understanding of these factors, resulting in missed opportunities for sales and the generation of avoidable promotional waste. This is particularly dangerous for SMEs who are often operating with tight margins and limited resources. A better understanding of consumer demand, through the use of disaggregated sales data (by shopper segment and store type) can facilitate more accurate forecasting of promotional uplifts and more effective allocation of stock, to maximise promotional sales and minimise promotional waste. However, there is little evidence that disaggregated data is widely or routinely used by supermarkets or their suppliers, particularly for those products supplied by SMEs. Moreover, the bulk of the published research regarding the impact of price promotions is either focussed on modelling consumer response, using claimed behaviour or highly aggregated scanner data or replenishment processes (frameworks and models) that bear little resemblance to the way in which the majority of food SMEs operate. This thesis explores the scope for improving the planning and execution of supermarket promotions, in the specific context of products supplied by SME, through the use of dis-aggregated sales data to forecast promotional sales and allocate promotional stock. An innovative case study methodology is used combining qualitative research to explore the promotional processes used by SMEs supplying the UK’s largest supermarket, Tesco, and simulation modelling, using supermarket loyalty card data and store level sales data, to estimate short term promotional impacts under different scenarios and derive optimize stock allocations using mixed integer linear programming (MILP). ii The results suggest that promotions are often designed, planned and executed with little formalised analysis or use of dis-aggregated sales data and with limited consideration of the interplay between supply and demand. The simulation modelling and MILP demonstrate the benefits of using supermarket loyalty card data and store level sales data to forecast demand and allocate stocks, through higher promotional uplifts and reduced levels of promotional wast

Corporate Social Responsibility: Organizational Strategy for Sustainable Growth

We often cast a question whether unethical behavior (corporate irresponsible activities) undertaken by international firms in developing countries is really entirely unethical or simply unavoidable grease, which is necessary to facilitate short-term growth in overseas markets. Both strategic management and international business scholars have long attempted to examine the outcomes of corporate social responsibility (CSR) primarily in the organizational strategic aspect. Due to this, they are turning a blind eye to firms’ unethical attitude and pretending not to notice that it is happening. In other words, we do not yet know enough about CSR from a long-term perspective and its relationship with sustainable growth for the long-term. We should also acknowledge that a firm’s unethical management is both a primary cause and a result of poverty in our economy, which means that a firm’s irresponsible activities (as an antonym of CSR) cannot be justified by any reason. This also represents the importance of research exploring CSR. We believe that this is the time to, first, synthesize diverse research fragments on CSR, second, combine it with an additional unique agenda (e.g., human rights, win-win partnership, official development assistance) particularly in the sustainability domain, and then third, compile all the theoretical and empirical pieces for organizational sustainability. By inviting submissions from researchers who studies various theoretical perspectives, adopts varied empirical approaches, and examines at multiple levels of analysis, as well as qualitative and quantitative experiments, literature reviews, and meta-analyses, this SI draws a big picture. We are strongly convinced that papers accepted by this SI significantly contribute to current relevant debates by filling many extant research gaps

Modelling and managing Supply Chain forecast uncertainty in the presence of the Bullwhip Effect

The Bullwhip Effect, defined as the upstream amplification of demand variability, has received considerable interest in the field of Supply Chain Management in recent years. This phenomenon has been detected in various industries and sectors, and manifests itself with multiple inefficiencies and higher costs at upper echelons in the supply chain. As a result, this topic is of great importance for academics and practitioners alike. One root cause of the Bullwhip Effect is the need for firms to forecast demand in order to place their orders and base their inventory decisions. Despite the multitude of studies that have emerged tackling this issue, the impact of the quality of forecasts on the Bullwhip Effect has received limited coverage in the literature. Modelling and forecasting the demand can be challenging, resulting in increased forecast uncertainty that contributes to the Bullwhip Effect. This thesis aims at bridging this gap by investigating three main research questions: (i) How can supply chain forecast uncertainty be captured at a firm level? (ii) How can the upstream propagation of forecast uncertainty from the Bullwhip Effect be measured? and (iii) What customer demand information sharing strategy is the most effective in reducing upstream the forecast uncertainty and inventory costs resulting from the Bullwhip Effect? We first propose an empirical approximation for measuring forecast uncertainty at a local level, which we show to outperform commonly used approximations for inventory purposes. We then propose a novel metric to capture the propagation of forecast uncertainty at higher echelons in the Supply Chain, which correlates strongly with upstream inventory costs, more so than the conventional Bullwhip measure. Using this, we evaluate alternative information sharing strategies that have appeared in the literature, but have not been assessed comparatively. We find that relying solely on point of sales data results in the best forecasting accuracy and inventory cost performance for upstream members. The findings obtained are actionable and simple to implement, making them of great use and relevance for supply chain practitioners and managers

Proceedings, MSVSCC 2016

Proceedings of the 10th Annual Modeling, Simulation & Visualization Student Capstone Conference held on April 14, 2016 at VMASC in Suffolk, Virginia