Estimating multiclass service demand distributions using Markovian arrival processes

Building performance models for software services in DevOps is costly and error-prone. Accurate service demand distribution estimation is critical to precisely modeling queueing behaviors and performance prediction. However, current estimation methods focus on capturing the mean service demand, disregarding higher-order moments of the distribution that still can largely affect prediction accuracy. To address this limitation, we propose to estimate higher moments of the service demand distribution for a microservice from monitoring traces. We first generate a closed queueing model to abstract software performance and use it to model the departure process of requests completed by the software service as a Markovian arrival process. This allows formulating the estimation of service demand into an optimization problem, which aims to find the first multiple moments of the service demand distribution that maximize the likelihood of the MAP using generated the measured inter-departure times. We then estimate the service demand distribution for different classes of service with a maximum likelihood algorithm and novel heuristics to mitigate the computational cost of the optimization process for scalability. We apply our method to real traces from a microservice-based application and demonstrate that its estimations lead to greater prediction accuracy than exponential distributions assumed in traditional service demand estimation approaches for software services

TTL Approximations of the Cache Replacement Algorithms LRU(m) and h-LRU

International audienceComputer system and network performance can be significantly improved by caching frequently used information. When the cache size is limited, the cache replacement algorithm has an important impact on the effectiveness of caching. In this paper we introduce time-to-live (TTL) approximations to determine the cache hit probability of two classes of cache replacement algorithms: h-LRU and LRU(m). These approximations only require the requests to be generated according to a general Markovian arrival process (MAP). This includes phase-type renewal processes and the IRM model as special cases. We provide both numerical and theoretical support for the claim that the proposed TTL approximations are asymptotically exact. In particular, we show that the transient hit probability converges to the solution of a set of ODEs (under the IRM model), where the fixed point of the set of ODEs corresponds to the TTL approximation. We use this approximation and trace-based simulation to compare the performance of h-LRU and LRU(m). First, we show that they perform alike, while the latter requires less work when a hit/miss occurs. Second, we show that as opposed to LRU, h-LRU and LRU(m) are sensitive to the correlation between consecutive inter-request times. Last, we study cache partitioning. In all tested cases, the hit probability improved by partitioning the cache into different parts—each being dedicated to a particular content provider. However, the gain is limited and the optimal partition sizes are very sensitive to the problem's parameters