Fuzzy Decision Mechanism for Stock Market Trading

Investors utilize various methods to make buy/sell decisions depending on time-dependent stock market prices. In this study, a fuzzy decision mechanism that makes buy/sell decisions for stock market data is proposed. The proposed mechanism generates instant buy/sell decisions by evaluating three popular indicators which are the Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) Strategy, Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), and Stochastic Oscillator (SO). The fuzzy decision mechanism has three inputs and one output which are defined by using Gaussian membership functions. In the design of the decision mechanism, Mamdani inference method is used and the rule table is defined by nine rules. Therefore, the structure of the proposed fuzzy decision mechanism is simple and straightforward. The performance of the proposed fuzzy decision mechanism is compared with two classical decision mechanisms using MACD and CMF indicators separately. In the comparisons, the stock market data of Borsa Istanbul 100 Index (XU100), Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI), and S&P 500 (^GSPC) are used. The comparison results show that the proposed fuzzy decision mechanism provides significantly higher profit than the mechanisms using either MACD or CMF indicators for all stock market data.115988

Optimizing Information Gathering for Environmental Monitoring Applications

The goal of environmental monitoring is to collect information from the environment and to generate an accurate model for a specific phenomena of interest. We can distinguish environmental monitoring applications into two macro areas that have different strategies for acquiring data from the environment. On one hand the use of fixed sensors deployed in the environment allows a constant monitoring and a steady flow of information coming from a predetermined set of locations in space. On the other hand the use of mobile platforms allows to adaptively and rapidly choose the sensing locations based on needs. For some applications (e.g. water monitoring) this can significantly reduce costs associated with monitoring compared with classical analysis made by human operators. However, both cases share a common problem to be solved. The data collection process must consider limited resources and the key problem is to choose where to perform observations (measurements) in order to most effectively acquire information from the environment and decrease the uncertainty about the analyzed phenomena. We can generalize this concept under the name of information gathering. In general, maximizing the information that we can obtain from the environment is an NP-hard problem. Hence, optimizing the selection of the sampling locations is crucial in this context. For example, in case of mobile sensors the problem of reducing uncertainty about a physical process requires to compute sensing trajectories constrained by the limited resources available, such as, the battery lifetime of the platform or the computation power available on board. This problem is usually referred to as Informative Path Planning (IPP). In the other case, observation with a network of fixed sensors requires to decide beforehand the specific locations where the sensors has to be deployed. Usually the process of selecting a limited set of informative locations is performed by solving a combinatorial optimization problem that model the information gathering process. This thesis focuses on the above mentioned scenario. Specifically, we investigate diverse problems and propose innovative algorithms and heuristics related to the optimization of information gathering techniques for environmental monitoring applications, both in case of deployment of mobile and fixed sensors. Moreover, we also investigate the possibility of using a quantum computation approach in the context of information gathering optimization

A Comprehensive Survey on Enterprise Financial Risk Analysis: Problems, Methods, Spotlights and Applications

Enterprise financial risk analysis aims at predicting the enterprises' future financial risk.Due to the wide application, enterprise financial risk analysis has always been a core research issue in finance. Although there are already some valuable and impressive surveys on risk management, these surveys introduce approaches in a relatively isolated way and lack the recent advances in enterprise financial risk analysis. Due to the rapid expansion of the enterprise financial risk analysis, especially from the computer science and big data perspective, it is both necessary and challenging to comprehensively review the relevant studies. This survey attempts to connect and systematize the existing enterprise financial risk researches, as well as to summarize and interpret the mechanisms and the strategies of enterprise financial risk analysis in a comprehensive way, which may help readers have a better understanding of the current research status and ideas. This paper provides a systematic literature review of over 300 articles published on enterprise risk analysis modelling over a 50-year period, 1968 to 2022. We first introduce the formal definition of enterprise risk as well as the related concepts. Then, we categorized the representative works in terms of risk type and summarized the three aspects of risk analysis. Finally, we compared the analysis methods used to model the enterprise financial risk. Our goal is to clarify current cutting-edge research and its possible future directions to model enterprise risk, aiming to fully understand the mechanisms of enterprise risk communication and influence and its application on corporate governance, financial institution and government regulation

A comparison of the CAR and DAGAR spatial random effects models with an application to diabetics rate estimation in Belgium

When hierarchically modelling an epidemiological phenomenon on a finite collection of sites in space, one must always take a latent spatial effect into account in order to capture the correlation structure that links the phenomenon to the territory. In this work, we compare two autoregressive spatial models that can be used for this purpose: the classical CAR model and the more recent DAGAR model. Differently from the former, the latter has a desirable property: its ρ parameter can be naturally interpreted as the average neighbor pair correlation and, in addition, this parameter can be directly estimated when the effect is modelled using a DAGAR rather than a CAR structure. As an application, we model the diabetics rate in Belgium in 2014 and show the adequacy of these models in predicting the response variable when no covariates are available

A Statistical Approach to the Alignment of fMRI Data

Multi-subject functional Magnetic Resonance Image studies are critical. The anatomical and functional structure varies across subjects, so the image alignment is necessary. We define a probabilistic model to describe functional alignment. Imposing a prior distribution, as the matrix Fisher Von Mises distribution, of the orthogonal transformation parameter, the anatomical information is embedded in the estimation of the parameters, i.e., penalizing the combination of spatially distant voxels. Real applications show an improvement in the classification and interpretability of the results compared to various functional alignment methods

Design and Management of Manufacturing Systems

Although the design and management of manufacturing systems have been explored in the literature for many years now, they still remain topical problems in the current scientific research. The changing market trends, globalization, the constant pressure to reduce production costs, and technical and technological progress make it necessary to search for new manufacturing methods and ways of organizing them, and to modify manufacturing system design paradigms. This book presents current research in different areas connected with the design and management of manufacturing systems and covers such subject areas as: methods supporting the design of manufacturing systems, methods of improving maintenance processes in companies, the design and improvement of manufacturing processes, the control of production processes in modern manufacturing systems production methods and techniques used in modern manufacturing systems and environmental aspects of production and their impact on the design and management of manufacturing systems. The wide range of research findings reported in this book confirms that the design of manufacturing systems is a complex problem and that the achievement of goals set for modern manufacturing systems requires interdisciplinary knowledge and the simultaneous design of the product, process and system, as well as the knowledge of modern manufacturing and organizational methods and techniques