Choosing Your Neighbors: Networks of Diffusion in International Relations

In examining the discussion of social and political phenomena like regime transition, conflict, and policy change, scholars routinely make choices about how proximity is defined and which neighbors should be considered more important than others. Since each specification offers an alternative view of the networks through which discussion can take place, one's decision can exert a significant influence on the magnitude and scope of estimated discussion effects. This problem is widely recognized, but is rarely the subject of direct analysis. In international relations research, connectivity choices are usually ad hoc, driven more by data availability than by theoretically informed decision criteria. We take a closer look at the assumptions behind these choices, and propose a more systematic method to asses the structural similarity of two or more alternative networks, and select one that most plausibly relates theory to empirics. We apply this method to the spread of democratic regime change, and offer an illustrative example of how neighbor choices might impact predictions and inferences in the case of the 2011 Arab Spring.GovernmentSociolog

Barriers to Nonviolent Resistance: Identities, Aims and State Responses to Dissent

The second chapter of this PhD thesis examines the barriers to nonviolent resistance and explains why, despite the grievances, we see uprisings in some states and not others. I argue that a lack of common ties and the existence of ethnic cleavages create additional barriers for nonviolent mass mobilization in ethnically diverse states. I test the argument by using the Ethnic-Power Relations (EPR) and Nonviolent and Violent Campaign and Outcomes (NAVCO.2.0) datasets. The results show that the probability of nonviolent campaign onset is conditional on both, the levels of ethnic diversity and the regime type – the onset being less likely in ethnically diverse non-democracies. The third chapter illustrates how ethnic divides can be used to undermine mass-scale nonviolent mobilization by examining government framing of protest events during the 2014 spring protests in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Automated text analysis approach is used to discover the types of narratives (frames) that the Bosnia and Herzegovina’s government officials used to respond to protest demands. The results show that the Government officials have predominantly used the following types of frames: delegitimizing (ex. calling protesters traitors, hooligans), demobilizing (sympathetic statements – ex. saying that protests are justified), and alternative views (sidelining/ignoring grievances by discussing more salient issues). The results indicate that ethnic divides were exploited to prevent cross-ethnic mass mobilization. In the chapter four, I explore the variability of government responses to protest events using the Mass Mobilization Data (MMD), focusing on the ignore category - the response not commonly studied in the literature. I find that contrary to the expectations, governments are more likely to ignore than repress protest events. In particular, governments are more likely to ignore protests with 1000 or more participants, and more likely to accommodate than repress protests above 5000 participants. In conclusion, this PhD thesis shows that ethnicity increases costs of cooperation and lowers potentials for nonviolent resistance. In addition, this thesis demonstrates that governments might often choose to neither repress nor accommodate protest events, choosing instead to ignore grievances and demands. In summary, the aim of this PhD thesis is to examine barriers to nonviolent resistance and state responses to dissent

The Dictator's Dilemma at the Ballot Box

Contrary to our stereotypical views, dictators often introduce elections in which they refrain from employing blatant electoral fraud. Why do electoral reforms happen in autocracies? Do these elections destabilize autocratic rule? The Dictator’s Dilemma at the Ballot Box argues that strong autocrats who can garner popular support become less dependent on coercive electioneering strategies. When autocrats fail to design elections properly, elections backfire in the form of coups, protests, and the opposition’s stunning election victories. The book’s theoretical implications are tested on a battery of cross-national analyses with newly collected data on autocratic elections and in-depth comparative case studies of the two Central Asian republics of Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan

Interval linguistic fuzzy decision making in perspective of preference relations

Consistency analysis is a crucial topic for preference relations. This paper studies the consistency of interval linguistic fuzzy preference relations (ILFPRs) using the constrained interval linguistic arithmetic and introduces a new consistency definition. Then, several properties of this definition are researched. Meanwhile, the connection between this concept and a previous one is discussed. Following this concept, programming models for judging the consistency and for deriving consistent ILFPRs are constructed, respectively. Considering the case that incomplete ILFPRs may be obtained, a programming model for obtaining missing judgments following the consistency discussion is built. Afterwards, the consensus for group decision making (GDM) is studied and a model for adjusting individual ILFPRs to reach the consensus threshold is established. Consequently, an interactive procedure for GDM with ILFPRs is presented. A practical problem is provided to illustrate the utilization of the new algorithm and comparative discussion is offered

Ethnic composition and the dynamics of Civil War: a subnational analysis of India and Pakistan

Scholars, policymakers, and the media present a conflicting picture of the relationship between ethnicity and civil conflict. In order to clear up the confusion and better establish this relationship, I argue that it is necessary to: (1) distinguish between different types of ethnic composition; (2) conceptualize and measure ethnic composition as not only a static phenomenon but a dynamic one in which population changes alter group security calculations and therefore their decision making; (3) consider the unique mobilization capacity of ethnic groups; and (4) examine the effect of ethnic composition at the subnational level of analysis. In doing so, this dissertation attempts to determine the overall effect of ethnicity on conflict, whether countries that organize their subnational political boundaries along ethnic lines decrease the risk of civil conflict, or alternatively, whether this strategy actually increases the risk of civil unrest, particularly in the form of violent secessionist movements. Through a quantitative, subnational analysis of India and Pakistan, I conclude that the relationship between ethnic composition and civil conflict is quite complex. I find partial support for the proposition that fractionalization has no effect on conflict, but most interestingly, conclude that ethnic dominance actually decreases the risk of conflict onset. Specifically, combining a federal institutional structure with territorial boundaries along ethnic lines to ensure a dominant ethnic group serves to substantially decrease the risk of civil conflict as well as the specific threat of secessionist opposition movements. Finally, I conclude that despite the specific ethnic composition of a particular subnational area, large changes in the relative size of ethnic groups create a situation of uncertainty and insecurity, thereby increasing the risk of conflict onset

Pathways To Civil War

This dissertation is about conflict escalation to civil war, and examines why some political confrontations escalate and why principal conflict actors continue fighting rather than reaching a number of political arrangements at various points of the course of conflict. Unlike previous studies, this study treats the progression to civil war as one of complex alternate paths. In so doing, building on the perspective of asymmetric information (i.e. uncertainty) problems as a cause of war, this study claims that involving each conflict actor\u27s cognitive variances about its opponent\u27s willingness to resolve and military strength would bolster either side\u27s costly military mobilization and boil over into civil war. Four extant hypotheses on conflict escalation and two specific propositions from a two-sided uncertainty perspective are tested with ordered and binary multiple logistic regression analyses against state-year aggregated data on government repression and armed resistance levels as well as civil war onset from 1976 to 2000. A comparative case illustration of the Lebanese civil war of 1975-1976 and the Northern Ireland conflict of 1970-1998 further illuminates the internal conflict dynamics toward or away from civil war, examining the emergence of principal and secondary armed actors in the course of conflict. Both the quantitative and qualitative studies provide evidence for the roles of uncertainty in either government leaders\u27 or armed rebel leaders\u27 decisions to fight or make certain concessions, while demonstrating that structural, institutional, demographic, and insurgent-favorable factors help explain the causes and persistence of `initial\u27 communal violence, armed resistance, and government repression. The study concludes with substantive policy implications for preventing conflict escalation and calls for stepping up efforts at establishing actor-based theoretical underpinnings to understand civil war as multi-interdependent reciprocal processes

Power mismatch and civil conflict: an empirical investigation

This paper empirically shows that the imbalance between an ethnic group’s political and military power is crucial to understanding the likelihood that such a group engages in a conflict. We develop a novel measure of a group’s military power by combining machine learning techniques with rich data on ethnic group characteristics and outcomes of civil conflicts in Africa and the Middle East. We couple this measure with available indicators of an ethnic group’s political power as well as with a novel proxy based on information about the ethnicity of cabinet members. We find that groups characterized by a higher mismatch between military and political power are between 30% and 50% more likely to engage in a conflict against their government depending on the specification used. We also find that the effects of power mismatch are nonlinear, which is in agreement with the predictions of a simple model that accounts for the cost of conflict. Moreover, our results suggest that high-mismatched groups are typically involved in larger and centrist conflicts. The policy implication is that powersharing recommendations and institutional design policies for peace should consider primarily the reduction of power mismatches between relevant groups, rather than focusing exclusively on equalizing political power in isolation

Ethno-embedded institutionalism: the impact of institutional repertoires on ethnic violence

Hitherto, the relationships between political institutions and ethnopolitical (in)stability typically have been analysed by investigating the effects of single, formal political institutions such as electoral systems or state structures (see e.g. Reynolds 2002; Roeder and Rothchild 2005). My doctoral thesis criticises this research focus on two different yet equally relevant accounts: First, the tendency to single out the effects of individual institutions is based on the implicit – and as I claim: wrong – assumption that political institutions can be treated as separate entities and that it is only of secondary relevance of which broader set of institutions they form part. Second, despite studies which highlight the relevance of informal political institutions (see e.g. Sisk and Stefes 2005; Varshney 2002), they have received far less attention in the academic debate so far. ‘Ethno-Embedded Institutionalism’ describes a new approach to the study of institutional incentives for ethnic violence which goes beyond the mere focus on single, formal political institutions by highlighting the effects of both institutional combinations and informal political institutions on the risk of ethnic civil war. To test the relevance of ‘Ethno-Embedded Institutionalism’, I use a grievance-based explanation of intrastate violence and binary time-series-cross-section analysis based on a personally designed dataset that covers 174 countries between 1955 and 2007. I present statistical evidence that high levels of corruption on the one hand, and institutional combinations of presidentialism, a majoritarian electoral system for the legislature and a unitary state structure on the other increase the risk of large-scale ethnic violence. Overall, my thesis contributes to the academic debate in three relevant regards: i) by conceptualising and testing Ethno-Embedded Institutionalism; ii) by describing a grievance-based explanation of large-scale ethnic violence which clearly identifies the key values of political representation; and iii) by presenting the EEI Dataset as the first comprehensive data source for the systematic statistical analysis of institutional incentives for ethnic civil war

The effects of interpersonal communication style on task performance and well being (A Thesis submitted for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy)

This thesis is based around five studies examining the psychology of interpersonal communication applied to organizational settings. The studies are designed to examine the question of how the way that people in positions of power in organizations communicate with subordinates, affects various measures of health, well-being and productivity. It is impossible to study modern organisational communication without recognising the importance of electronic communication. The use of e-mail and other forms of text messaging is now ubiquitous in all areas of communication. The studies in this thesis include the use of e-mail as a medium of communication and examine some of the potential effects of electronic versus face-to-face and verbal communication. The findings of the studies support the basic hypothesis that: it is not what is said that matters but how it is said. The results showed that an unsupportive, formal, authoritarian style of verbal or written communication is likely to have a negative effect on health, well-being and productivity compared with a supportive, informal and egalitarian style. There are also indications that the effects of damaging communications may not be confined to the initial recipient of the message. Organizational communication does not take place in a vacuum. Any negative consequences are likely to be transmitted by the recipient, either back to the sender or on to other colleagues with implications for the wider organisational climate. These findings are based on communications that would not necessarily be immediately recognised as obviously offensive or bullying, or even uncivil. The effects of these relatively mild but unsupportive communications may have implications for the selection and training of managers. In the final section of the thesis there is a discussion of how examples of various electronically recorded messages might be used as training material

Sistema multiagente para modelar procesos de consenso en toma de decisión en grupo a gran escala usando técnicas de soft computing

[ES]La presente Tesis se centra en el campo de los Procesos de Alcance de Consenso en Toma de Decisión en Grupo. En la literatura se han propuesto diversos modelos y enfoques para dar soporte a dichos procesos en problemas de toma de decisión en grupo reales, los cuales normalmente se han centrado en pequeños grupos de expertos. Sin embargo, dichos modelos presentan algunas dificultades:::;. y limitaciones para la gestión de grandes grupos. Dado que los problemas de toma de decisión en grupo a gran escala, en los que participa un elevado número de expertos, están cobrando una relevancia cada vez mayor en múltiples entornos tecnológicos, en esta investigación se propone un Sistema Multiagente basado en técnicas de soft computing, capaz de dar soporte en procesos de negociación semisupervisados, para alcanzar el consenso en problemas reales en los que participa un elevado número de expertos.[EN]This thesis focuses on the field of Consensus Reaching Processes within Group Decision Making. Several models and approaches have been proposed in the literature to support such processes in reallife group decision making problems, which have normally focused on small groups of experts. However, such models present some difficulties and limitations for the management of large groups. Due to the fact that large-scale group decision making problems, in which a large number of experts participate, are attaining an increasing relevance in multiple technological environments, this research proposes a multiagent system based on soft computing techniques, capable of giving support to semi-supervised negotiation processes in order to reach consensus in real-life problems in which a large number of experts take partoTesis Univ. Jaén. Departamento de Informática, leída el 25 de febrero de 201