Perturbation analysis in verification of discrete-time Markov chains

Perturbation analysis in probabilistic verification addresses the robustness and sensitivity problem for verification of stochastic models against qualitative and quantitative properties. We identify two types of perturbation bounds, namely non-asymptotic bounds and asymptotic bounds. Non-asymptotic bounds are exact, pointwise bounds that quantify the upper and lower bounds of the verification result subject to a given perturbation of the model, whereas asymptotic bounds are closed-form bounds that approximate non-asymptotic bounds by assuming that the given perturbation is sufficiently small. We perform perturbation analysis in the setting of Discrete-time Markov Chains. We consider three basic matrix norms to capture the perturbation distance, and focus on the computational aspect. Our main contributions include algorithms and tight complexity bounds for calculating both non-asymptotic bounds and asymptotic bounds with respect to the three perturbation distances. © 2014 Springer-Verlag

Low-complexity Multiclass Encryption by Compressed Sensing

The idea that compressed sensing may be used to encrypt information from unauthorised receivers has already been envisioned, but never explored in depth since its security may seem compromised by the linearity of its encoding process. In this paper we apply this simple encoding to define a general private-key encryption scheme in which a transmitter distributes the same encoded measurements to receivers of different classes, which are provided partially corrupted encoding matrices and are thus allowed to decode the acquired signal at provably different levels of recovery quality. The security properties of this scheme are thoroughly analysed: firstly, the properties of our multiclass encryption are theoretically investigated by deriving performance bounds on the recovery quality attained by lower-class receivers with respect to high-class ones. Then we perform a statistical analysis of the measurements to show that, although not perfectly secure, compressed sensing grants some level of security that comes at almost-zero cost and thus may benefit resource-limited applications. In addition to this we report some exemplary applications of multiclass encryption by compressed sensing of speech signals, electrocardiographic tracks and images, in which quality degradation is quantified as the impossibility of some feature extraction algorithms to obtain sensitive information from suitably degraded signal recoveries.Comment: IEEE Transactions on Signal Processing, accepted for publication. Article in pres

Quantitative Approximation of the Probability Distribution of a Markov Process by Formal Abstractions

The goal of this work is to formally abstract a Markov process evolving in discrete time over a general state space as a finite-state Markov chain, with the objective of precisely approximating its state probability distribution in time, which allows for its approximate, faster computation by that of the Markov chain. The approach is based on formal abstractions and employs an arbitrary finite partition of the state space of the Markov process, and the computation of average transition probabilities between partition sets. The abstraction technique is formal, in that it comes with guarantees on the introduced approximation that depend on the diameters of the partitions: as such, they can be tuned at will. Further in the case of Markov processes with unbounded state spaces, a procedure for precisely truncating the state space within a compact set is provided, together with an error bound that depends on the asymptotic properties of the transition kernel of the original process. The overall abstraction algorithm, which practically hinges on piecewise constant approximations of the density functions of the Markov process, is extended to higher-order function approximations: these can lead to improved error bounds and associated lower computational requirements. The approach is practically tested to compute probabilistic invariance of the Markov process under study, and is compared to a known alternative approach from the literature.Comment: 29 pages, Journal of Logical Methods in Computer Scienc

p-probabilistic k-anonymous microaggregation for the anonymization of surveys with uncertain participation

We develop a probabilistic variant of k-anonymous microaggregation which we term p-probabilistic resorting to a statistical model of respondent participation in order to aggregate quasi-identifiers in such a manner that k-anonymity is concordantly enforced with a parametric probabilistic guarantee. Succinctly owing the possibility that some respondents may not finally participate, sufficiently larger cells are created striving to satisfy k-anonymity with probability at least p. The microaggregation function is designed before the respondents submit their confidential data. More precisely, a specification of the function is sent to them which they may verify and apply to their quasi-identifying demographic variables prior to submitting the microaggregated data along with the confidential attributes to an authorized repository. We propose a number of metrics to assess the performance of our probabilistic approach in terms of anonymity and distortion which we proceed to investigate theoretically in depth and empirically with synthetic and standardized data. We stress that in addition to constituting a functional extension of traditional microaggregation, thereby broadening its applicability to the anonymization of statistical databases in a wide variety of contexts, the relaxation of trust assumptions is arguably expected to have a considerable impact on user acceptance and ultimately on data utility through mere availability.Peer ReviewedPostprint (author's final draft

Bounding stationary averages of polynomial diffusions via semidefinite programming

We introduce an algorithm based on semidefinite programming that yields increasing (resp. decreasing) sequences of lower (resp. upper) bounds on polynomial stationary averages of diffusions with polynomial drift vector and diffusion coefficients. The bounds are obtained by optimising an objective, determined by the stationary average of interest, over the set of real vectors defined by certain linear equalities and semidefinite inequalities which are satisfied by the moments of any stationary measure of the diffusion. We exemplify the use of the approach through several applications: a Bayesian inference problem; the computation of Lyapunov exponents of linear ordinary differential equations perturbed by multiplicative white noise; and a reliability problem from structural mechanics. Additionally, we prove that the bounds converge to the infimum and supremum of the set of stationary averages for certain SDEs associated with the computation of the Lyapunov exponents, and we provide numerical evidence of convergence in more general settings

Extreme Value Laws for non stationary processes generated by sequential and random dynamical systems

We develop and generalize the theory of extreme value for non-stationary stochastic processes, mostly by weakening the uniform mixing condition that was previously used in this setting. We apply our results to non-autonomous dynamical systems, in particular to {\em sequential dynamical systems}, given by uniformly expanding maps, and to a few classes of random dynamical systems. Some examples are presented and worked out in detail

Isotonic distributional regression

Isotonic distributional regression (IDR) is a powerful non-parametric technique for the estimation of conditional distributions under order restrictions. In a nutshell, IDR learns conditional distributions that are calibrated, and simultaneously optimal relative to comprehensive classes of relevant loss functions, subject to isotonicity constraints in terms of a partial order on the covariate space. Non-parametric isotonic quantile regression and non-parametric isotonic binary regression emerge as special cases. For prediction, we propose an interpolation method that generalizes extant specifications under the pool adjacent violators algorithm. We recommend the use of IDR as a generic benchmark technique in probabilistic forecast problems, as it does not involve any parameter tuning nor implementation choices, except for the selection of a partial order on the covariate space. The method can be combined with subsample aggregation, with the benefits of smoother regression functions and gains in computational efficiency. In a simulation study, we compare methods for distributional regression in terms of the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) and 2 estimation error, which are closely linked. In a case study on raw and post-processed quantitative precipitation forecasts from a leading numerical weather prediction system, IDR is competitive with state of the art techniques