Assessment of sustainability of improving road safety process in the volga federal district

The article examines the issues of assessing the sustainability of traffic safety improvement process in the cities of the Volga Federal District of the Russian Federation. In 2015...2018 a sharp decrease in the overall level of road traffic accidents in the Russian Federation was recorded. However, in different regions and cities of the country this positive process runs extremely heterogeneously, with various speeds and different levels of qualitative changes in the field of road safety. The T-Wilcoxon criterion is an instrument, used in analyzing accident rate statistics, which can help in the argumentation of the opinion on the stability of this process or, vice versa, on the chaotic state and weak expression. On the example of accident rate statistics in subjects of the Volga Federal District of Russia, the article proves that improvement of road safety can be characterized as sustainable. © Published under licence by IOP Publishing Ltd

Methodology for development of drought Severity-Duration-Frequency (SDF) Curves

Drought monitoring and early warning are essential elements impacting drought sensitive sectors such as primary production, industrial and consumptive water users. A quantitative estimate of the probability of occurrence and the anticipated severity of drought is crucial for the development of mitigating strategies. The overall aim of this study is to develop a methodology to assess drought frequency and severity and to advance the understanding of monitoring and predicting droughts in the future. Seventy (70) meteorological stations across Victoria, Australia were selected for analysis. To achieve the above objective, the analysis was initially carried out to select the most applicable meteorological drought index for Victoria. This is important because to date, no drought indices are applied across Australia by any Commonwealth agency quantifying drought impacts. An evaluation of existing meteorological drought indices namely, the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI), the Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI) and Deciles was first conducted to assess their suitability for the determination of drought conditions. The use of the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) was shown to be satisfactory for assessing and monitoring meteorological droughts in Australia. When applied to data, SPI was also successful in detecting the onset and the end of historical droughts. Temporal changes in historic rainfall variability and the trend of SPI were investigated using non-parametric trend techniques to detect wet and dry periods across Victoria, Australia. The first part of the analysis was carried out to determine annual rainfall trends using Mann Kendall (MK) and Sen’s slope tests at five selected meteorological stations with long historical records (more than 100 years), as well as a short sub-set period (1949-2011) of the same data set. It was found that different trend results were obtained for the sub-set. For SPI trend analysis, it was observed that, although different results were obtained showing significant trends, SPI gave a trend direction similar to annual precipitation (downward and upward trends). In addition, temporal trends in the rate of occurrence of drought events (i.e. inter-arrival times) were examined. The fact that most of the stations showed negative slopes indicated that the intervals between events were becoming shorter and the frequency of events was temporally increasing. Based on the results obtained from the preliminary analysis, the trend analyses were then carried out for the remaining 65 stations. The main conclusions from these analyses are summarized as follows; 1) the trend analysis was observed to be highly dependent on the start and end dates of analysis. It is recommended that in the selection of time period for the drought, trend analysis should consider the length xvi of available data sets. Longer data series would give more meaningful results, thus improving the understanding of droughts impacted by climate change. 2) From the SPI and inter-arrival drought trends, it was observed that some of the study areas in Victoria will face more frequent dry period leading to increased drought occurrence. Information similar to this would be very important to develop suitable strategies to mitigate the impacts of future droughts. The main objective of this study was the development of a methodology to assess drought risk for each region based on a frequency analysis of the drought severity series using the SPI index calculated over a 12-month duration. A novel concept centric on drought severity-duration-frequency (SDF) curves was successfully derived for all the 70 stations using an innovative threshold approach. The methodology derived using extreme value analysis will assist in the characterization of droughts and provide useful information to policy makers and agencies developing drought response plans. Using regionalisation techniques such as Cluster analysis and modified Andrews curve, the study area was separated into homogenous groups based on rainfall characteristics. In the current Victorian application the study area was separated into six homogeneous clusters with unique signatures. A set of mean SDF curves was developed for each cluster to identify the frequency and severity of the risk of drought events for various return periods in each cluster. The advantage of developing a mean SDF curve (as a signature) for each cluster is that it assists the understanding of drought conditions for an ungauged or unknown station, the characteristics of which fit existing cluster groups. Non-homogeneous Markov Chain modelling was used to estimate the probability of different drought severity classes and drought severity class predictions 1, 2 and 3 months ahead. The non-homogeneous formulation, which considers the seasonality of precipitation, is useful for understanding the evolution of drought events and for short-term planning. Overall, this model predicted drought situations 1 month ahead well. However, predictions 2 and 3 months ahead should be used with caution. Many parts of Australia including Victoria have experienced their worst droughts on record over the last decade. With the threat of climate change potentially further exacerbating droughts in the years ahead, a clear understanding of the impact of droughts is vital. The information on the probability of occurrence and the anticipated severity of drought will be helpful for water resources managers, infrastructure planners and government policy-makers with future infrastructure planning and with the design and building of more resilient communities

Demo: Making Plans Scrutable with Argumentation and Natural Language Generation.

Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Assessing the Value of Time Travel Savings – A Feasibility Study on Humberside.

It is expected that the opening of the Humber Bridge will cause major changes to travel patterns around Humberside; given the level of tolls as currently stated, many travellers will face decisions involving a trade-off between travel time, money outlay on tolls or fares and money outlay on private vehicle running costs; this either in the context of destination choice, mode choice or route choice. This report sets out the conclusions of a preliminary study of the feasibility of inferring values of travel time savings from observations made on the outcomes of these decisions. Methods based on aggregate data of destination choice are found t o be inefficient; a disaggregate mode choice study i s recommended, subject to caveats on sample size

Congestion analysis of unsignalized intersections

This paper considers an unsignalized intersection used by two traffic streams. A stream of cars is using a primary road, and has priority over the other, low-priority, stream. Cars belonging to the latter stream cross the primary road if the gaps between two subsequent cars on the primary road is larger than their critical headways. Questions that naturally arise are: given the arrival pattern of the cars on the primary road, what is the maximum arrival rate of low-priority cars such that the number of such cars remains stable? In the second place, what can be said about the delay experienced by a typical car at the secondary road? This paper addresses such issues by considering a compact model that sheds light on the dynamics of the considered unsignalized intersection. The model, which is of a queueing-theoretic nature, reveals interesting insights into the impact of the user behavior on the above stability and delay issues. The contribution of this paper is twofold. First, we obtain new results for the aforementioned model with driver impatience. Secondly, we reveal some surprising aspects that have remained unobserved in the existing literature so far, many of which are caused by the fact that the capacity of the minor road cannot be expressed in terms of the \emph{mean} gap size; instead more detailed characteristics of the critical headway distribution play a role.Comment: This paper appeared in the proceedings of the 8th International Conference on Communication Systems and Networks (COMSNETS), 5-10 Jan. 2016. A related but more extended paper which analyses a more general model than the one in the present paper can be also found on arXiv:1802.0673

A fully-discrete-state kinetic theory approach to modeling vehicular traffic

This paper presents a new mathematical model of vehicular traffic, based on the methods of the generalized kinetic theory, in which the space of microscopic states (position and velocity) of the vehicles is genuinely discrete. While in the recent literature discrete-velocity kinetic models of car traffic have already been successfully proposed, this is, to our knowledge, the first attempt to account for all aspects of the physical granularity of car flow within the formalism of the aforesaid mathematical theory. Thanks to a rich but handy structure, the resulting model allows one to easily implement and simulate various realistic scenarios giving rise to characteristic traffic phenomena of practical interest (e.g., queue formation due to roadworks or to a traffic light). Moreover, it is analytically tractable under quite general assumptions, whereby fundamental properties of the solutions can be rigorously proved.Comment: 22 pages, 3 figure

A method to assess demand growth vulnerability of travel times on road network links

Many national governments around the world have turned their recent focus to monitoring the actual reliability of their road networks. In parallel there have been major research efforts aimed at developing modelling approaches for predicting the potential vulnerability of such networks, and in forecasting the future impact of any mitigating actions. In practice-whether monitoring the past or planning for the future-a confounding factor may arise, namely the potential for systematic growth in demand over a period of years. As this growth occurs the networks will operate in a regime closer to capacity, in which they are more sensitive to any variation in flow or capacity. Such growth will be partially an explanation for trends observed in historic data, and it will have an impact in forecasting too, where we can interpret this as implying that the networks are vulnerable to demand growth. This fact is not reflected in current vulnerability methods which focus almost exclusively on vulnerability to loss in capacity. In the paper, a simple, moment-based method is developed to separate out this effect of demand growth on the distribution of travel times on a network link, the aim being to develop a simple, tractable, analytic method for medium-term planning applications. Thus the impact of demand growth on the mean, variance and skewness in travel times may be isolated. For given critical changes in these summary measures, we are thus able to identify what (location-specific) level of demand growth would cause these critical values to be exceeded, and this level is referred to as Demand Growth Reliability Vulnerability (DGRV). Computing the DGRV index for each link of a network also allows the planner to identify the most vulnerable locations, in terms of their ability to accommodate growth in demand. Numerical examples are used to illustrate the principles and computation of the DGRV measure