A Graphical Adversarial Risk Analysis Model for Oil and Gas Drilling Cybersecurity

Oil and gas drilling is based, increasingly, on operational technology, whose cybersecurity is complicated by several challenges. We propose a graphical model for cybersecurity risk assessment based on Adversarial Risk Analysis to face those challenges. We also provide an example of the model in the context of an offshore drilling rig. The proposed model provides a more formal and comprehensive analysis of risks, still using the standard business language based on decisions, risks, and value.Comment: In Proceedings GraMSec 2014, arXiv:1404.163

Does Television Terrify Tourists? Effects of US Television News on Demand for Tourism in Israel

In this paper we analyze a time series measuring the monthly flow of US tourists to Israel over the period 1997-2006. We pay particular attention to the response of tourists to variations in the intensity the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, drawing a distinction between actual conflict intensity and the intensity with which the conflict is reported in the US television media. We find that different dimensions of the conflict affect tourists in different ways. For some (but not all) dimensions of the conflict, reported intensity matters more than actual intensity

Mass casualty events: what to do as the dust settles?

Care during mass casualty events (MCE) has improved during the last 15 years. Military and civilian collaboration has led to partnerships which augment the response to MCE. Much has been written about strategies to deliver care during an MCE, but there is little about how to transition back to normal operations after an event. A panel discussion entitled The Day(s) After: Lessons Learned from Trauma Team Management in the Aftermath of an Unexpected Mass Casualty Event at the 76th Annual American Association for the Surgery of Trauma meeting on September 13, 2017 brought together a cadre of military and civilian surgeons with experience in MCEs. The events described were the First Battle of Mogadishu (1993), the Second Battle of Fallujah (2004), the Bagram Detention Center Rocket Attack (2014), the Boston Marathon Bombing (2013), the Asiana Flight 214 Plane Crash (2013), the Baltimore Riots (2015), and the Orlando Pulse Night Club Shooting (2016). This article focuses on the lessons learned from military and civilian surgeons in the days after MCEs

The risk of catastrophic terrorism: an extreme value approach

This paper models the stochastic behavior of large-scale terrorism using extreme value methods. We utilize a unique dataset composed of roughly 26,000 observations. These data provide a rich description of domestic and international terrorism between 1968 and 2006. Currently, a credible worst-case scenario would involve losses of about 5000 to 10,000 lives. Also, the return time for events of such magnitude is shortening every year. Today, the primary threat is from conventional weapons, rather than from chemical, biological and/or radionuclear weapons. However, pronounced tails in the distribution of these incidents suggest that this threat cannot be dismissed.CBRN, extreme value theory, risk, terrorism

Accident Analysis and Prevention: Course Notes 1987/88

This report consists of the notes from a series of lectures given by the authors for a course entitled Accident Analysis and Prevention. The course took place during the second term of a one year Masters degree course in Transport Planning and Engineering run by the Institute for Transport Studies and the Department of Civil Engineering at the University of Leeds. The course consisted of 18 lectures of which 16 are reported on in this document (the remaining two, on Human Factors, are not reported on in this document as no notes were provided). Each lecture represents one chapter of this document, except in two instances where two lectures are covered in one chapter (Chapters 10 and 14). The course first took place in 1988, and at the date of publication has been run for a second time. This report contains the notes for the initial version of the course. A number of changes were made in the content and emphasis of the course during its second run, mainly due to a change of personnel, with different ideas and experiences in the field of accident analysis and prevention. It is likely that each time the course is run, there will be significant changes, but that the notes provided in this document can be considered to contain a number of the core elements of any future version of the course

Wearable proximity sensors for monitoring a mass casualty incident exercise: a feasibility study

Over the past several decades, naturally occurring and man-made mass casualty incidents (MCI) have increased in frequency and number, worldwide. To test the impact of such event on medical resources, simulations can provide a safe, controlled setting while replicating the chaotic environment typical of an actual disaster. A standardised method to collect and analyse data from mass casualty exercises is needed, in order to assess preparedness and performance of the healthcare staff involved. We report on the use of wearable proximity sensors to measure proximity events during a MCI simulation. We investigated the interactions between medical staff and patients, to evaluate the time dedicated by the medical staff with respect to the severity of the injury of the victims depending on the roles. We estimated the presence of the patients in the different spaces of the field hospital, in order to study the patients' flow. Data were obtained and collected through the deployment of wearable proximity sensors during a mass casualty incident functional exercise. The scenario included two areas: the accident site and the Advanced Medical Post (AMP), and the exercise lasted 3 hours. A total of 238 participants simulating medical staff and victims were involved. Each participant wore a proximity sensor and 30 fixed devices were placed in the field hospital. The contact networks show a heterogeneous distribution of the cumulative time spent in proximity by participants. We obtained contact matrices based on cumulative time spent in proximity between victims and the rescuers. Our results showed that the time spent in proximity by the healthcare teams with the victims is related to the severity of the patient's injury. The analysis of patients' flow showed that the presence of patients in the rooms of the hospital is consistent with triage code and diagnosis, and no obvious bottlenecks were found

The Enemy of my Enemy is my Friend… The Dynamics of Self Defense Forces in Irregular War: The Case of the Sons of Iraq

This paper assesses the effect that leveraging civilian defense force militias has on the dynamics of violence in civil war. We argue that the delegation of security and combat roles to local civilians shifts the primary targets of insurgent violence towards civilians, in an attempt to deter future defections, and re-establish control over the local population. This argument is assessed through an analysis of the Sunni Awakening and ancillary Sons of Iraq paramilitary program. The results suggest that at least in the Al-Anbar province of Iraq, the utilisation of the civilian population in counterinsurgent roles had significant implications for the targets of insurgent violence