Forecasting seasonal time series with computational intelligence: on recent methods and the potential of their combinations

Accurate time series forecasting is a key issue to support individual and or- ganizational decision making. In this paper, we introduce novel methods for multi-step seasonal time series forecasting. All the presented methods stem from computational intelligence techniques: evolutionary artificial neu- ral networks, support vector machines and genuine linguistic fuzzy rules. Performance of the suggested methods is experimentally justified on sea- sonal time series from distinct domains on three forecasting horizons. The most important contribution is the introduction of a new hybrid combination using linguistic fuzzy rules and the other computational intelligence methods. This hybrid combination presents competitive forecasts, when compared with the popular ARIMA method. Moreover, such hybrid model is more easy to interpret by decision-makers when modeling trended series.The research was supported by the European Regional Development Fund in the IT4Innovations Centre of Excellence project (CZ.1.05/1.1.00/02.0070). Furthermore, we gratefully acknowledge partial support of the project KON- TAKT II - LH12229 of MSˇMT CˇR

A systematic review of the prediction of hospital length of stay:Towards a unified framework

Hospital length of stay of patients is a crucial factor for the effective planning and management of hospital resources. There is considerable interest in predicting the LoS of patients in order to improve patient care, control hospital costs and increase service efficiency. This paper presents an extensive review of the literature, examining the approaches employed for the prediction of LoS in terms of their merits and shortcomings. In order to address some of these problems, a unified framework is proposed to better generalise the approaches that are being used to predict length of stay. This includes the investigation of the types of routinely collected data used in the problem as well as recommendations to ensure robust and meaningful knowledge modelling. This unified common framework enables the direct comparison of results between length of stay prediction approaches and will ensure that such approaches can be used across several hospital environments. A literature search was conducted in PubMed, Google Scholar and Web of Science from 1970 until 2019 to identify LoS surveys which review the literature. 32 Surveys were identified, from these 32 surveys, 220 papers were manually identified to be relevant to LoS prediction. After removing duplicates, and exploring the reference list of studies included for review, 93 studies remained. Despite the continuing efforts to predict and reduce the LoS of patients, current research in this domain remains ad-hoc; as such, the model tuning and data preprocessing steps are too specific and result in a large proportion of the current prediction mechanisms being restricted to the hospital that they were employed in. Adopting a unified framework for the prediction of LoS could yield a more reliable estimate of the LoS as a unified framework enables the direct comparison of length of stay methods. Additional research is also required to explore novel methods such as fuzzy systems which could build upon the success of current models as well as further exploration of black-box approaches and model interpretability

Prognostic and health management of critical aircraft systems and components: an overview

This article belongs to the Special Issue Feature Papers in Fault Diagnosis & Sensors 2023Prognostic and health management (PHM) plays a vital role in ensuring the safety and reliability of aircraft systems. The process entails the proactive surveillance and evaluation of the state and functional effectiveness of crucial subsystems. The principal aim of PHM is to predict the remaining useful life (RUL) of subsystems and proactively mitigate future breakdowns in order to minimize consequences. The achievement of this objective is helped by employing predictive modeling techniques and doing real-time data analysis. The incorporation of prognostic methodologies is of utmost importance in the execution of condition-based maintenance (CBM), a strategic approach that emphasizes the prioritization of repairing components that have experienced quantifiable damage. Multiple methodologies are employed to support the advancement of prognostics for aviation systems, encompassing physics-based modeling, data-driven techniques, and hybrid prognosis. These methodologies enable the prediction and mitigation of failures by identifying relevant health indicators. Despite the promising outcomes in the aviation sector pertaining to the implementation of PHM, there exists a deficiency in the research concerning the efficient integration of hybrid PHM applications. The primary aim of this paper is to provide a thorough analysis of the current state of research advancements in prognostics for aircraft systems, with a specific focus on prominent algorithms and their practical applications and challenges. The paper concludes by providing a detailed analysis of prospective directions for future research within the field.European Union funding: 95568

Front Matter - Soft Computing for Data Mining Applications

Efficient tools and algorithms for knowledge discovery in large data sets have been devised during the recent years. These methods exploit the capability of computers to search huge amounts of data in a fast and effective manner. However, the data to be analyzed is imprecise and afflicted with uncertainty. In the case of heterogeneous data sources such as text, audio and video, the data might moreover be ambiguous and partly conflicting. Besides, patterns and relationships of interest are usually vague and approximate. Thus, in order to make the information mining process more robust or say, human-like methods for searching and learning it requires tolerance towards imprecision, uncertainty and exceptions. Thus, they have approximate reasoning capabilities and are capable of handling partial truth. Properties of the aforementioned kind are typical soft computing. Soft computing techniques like Genetic

Quality of service analysis of internet links with minimal information

Tesis doctoral inédita. Universidad Autónoma de Madrid, Escuela Politécnica Superior, julio de 201

Hinge-Loss Markov Random Fields and Probabilistic Soft Logic: A Scalable Approach to Structured Prediction

A fundamental challenge in developing impactful artificial intelligence technologies is balancing the ability to model rich, structured domains with the ability to scale to big data. Many important problem areas are both richly structured and large scale, from social and biological networks, to knowledge graphs and the Web, to images, video, and natural language. In this thesis I introduce two new formalisms for modeling structured data, distinguished from previous approaches by their ability to both capture rich structure and scale to big data. The first, hinge-loss Markov random fields (HL-MRFs), is a new kind of probabilistic graphical model that generalizes different approaches to convex inference. I unite three views of inference from the randomized algorithms, probabilistic graphical models, and fuzzy logic communities, showing that all three views lead to the same inference objective. I then derive HL-MRFs by generalizing this unified objective. The second new formalism, probabilistic soft logic (PSL), is a probabilistic programming language that makes HL-MRFs easy to define, refine, and reuse for relational data. PSL uses a syntax based on first-order logic to compactly specify complex models. I next introduce an algorithm for inferring most-probable variable assignments (MAP inference) for HL-MRFs that is extremely scalable, much more so than commercially available software, because it uses message passing to leverage the sparse dependency structures common in inference tasks. I then show how to learn the parameters of HL-MRFs using a number of learning objectives. The learned HL-MRFs are as accurate as traditional, discrete models, but much more scalable. To enable HL-MRFs and PSL to capture even richer dependencies, I then extend learning to support latent variables, i.e., variables without training labels. To overcome the bottleneck of repeated inferences required during learning, I introduce paired-dual learning, which interleaves inference and parameter updates. Paired-dual learning learns accurate models and is also scalable, often completing before traditional methods make even one parameter update. Together, these algorithms enable HL-MRFs and PSL to model rich, structured data at scales not previously possible

An automatic system for classification of breast cancer lesions in ultrasound images

Breast cancer is the most common of all cancers and second most deadly cancer in women in the developed countries. Mammography and ultrasound imaging are the standard techniques used in cancer screening. Mammography is widely used as the primary tool for cancer screening, however it is invasive technique due to radiation used. Ultrasound seems to be good at picking up many cancers missed by mammography. In addition, ultrasound is non-invasive as no radiation is used, portable and versatile. However, ultrasound images have usually poor quality because of multiplicative speckle noise that results in artifacts. Because of noise segmentation of suspected areas in ultrasound images is a challenging task that remains an open problem despite many years of research. In this research, a new method for automatic detection of suspected breast cancer lesions using ultrasound is proposed. In this fully automated method, new de-noising and segmentation techniques are introduced and high accuracy classifier using combination of morphological and textural features is used. We use a combination of fuzzy logic and compounding to denoise ultrasound images and reduce shadows. We introduced a new method to identify the seed points and then use region growing method to perform segmentation. For preliminary classification we use three classifiers (ANN, AdaBoost, FSVM) and then we use a majority voting to get the final result. We demonstrate that our automated system performs better than the other state-of-the-art systems. On our database containing ultrasound images for 80 patients we reached accuracy of 98.75% versus ABUS method with 88.75% accuracy and Hybrid Filtering method with 92.50% accuracy. Future work would involve a larger dataset of ultrasound images and we will extend our system to handle colour ultrasound images. We will also study the impact of larger number of texture and morphological features as well as weighting scheme on performance of our classifier. We will also develop an automated method to identify the "wall thickness" of a mass in breast ultrasound images. Presently the wall thickness is extracted manually with the help of a physician

Fuzzy Modelling of Human Psycho-Physiological State and Fuzzy Adaptive Control of Automation in Human-Machine Interface

This research aims at proposing a new modelling and control framework that monitors the human operators' psychophysiological state in the human-machine interface to prevent performance breakdown. This research started with the exploration of new psychophysiological state assessment approaches to the adaptive modelling and control method for predicting human task performance and balancing the engagement of the human operator and the automatic system. The results of this research may also be further applied in developing advanced control mechanisms, investigating the origins of human compromised performance and identifying or even remedying operators' breakdown in the early stages of operation, at least. A summary of the current human psychophysiological studies, previous human-machine interface simulation and existing biomarkers for human psychophysiological state assessment was provided for simulation experiment design of this research. The use of newly developed facial temperature biomarkers for assessing the human psychophysiological state and the task performance was investigated. The research continued by exploring the uncertainty of the human-machine interface system through the use of the complex fuzzy logic based offline modelling approach. A new type-2 fuzzy-based modelling approach was then proposed to assess the human operators' psychophysiological states in the real-time human-machine interface. This new modelling technique integrated state tracking and type-2 fuzzy sets for updating the rule base with a Bayesian process. Finally, this research included a new type-2 fuzzy logic-based control algorithm for balancing the human-machine interface systems via adjusting the engagement of the human operators according to their psychophysiological state and task performance. This innovative control approach combined the state estimation of the human operator with the type-2 fuzzy sets to maintain the balance between the task requirements (i.e. difficulty level) and the human operator feasible effort (i.e. psychophysiological states). In addition, the research revealed the impacts of multi-tasking and general fatigue on human operator's performance