Optimal treatment allocations in space and time for on-line control of an emerging infectious disease

A key component in controlling the spread of an epidemic is deciding where, whenand to whom to apply an intervention.We develop a framework for using data to informthese decisionsin realtime.We formalize a treatment allocation strategy as a sequence of functions, oneper treatment period, that map up-to-date information on the spread of an infectious diseaseto a subset of locations where treatment should be allocated. An optimal allocation strategyoptimizes some cumulative outcome, e.g. the number of uninfected locations, the geographicfootprint of the disease or the cost of the epidemic. Estimation of an optimal allocation strategyfor an emerging infectious disease is challenging because spatial proximity induces interferencebetween locations, the number of possible allocations is exponential in the number oflocations, and because disease dynamics and intervention effectiveness are unknown at outbreak.We derive a Bayesian on-line estimator of the optimal allocation strategy that combinessimulation–optimization with Thompson sampling.The estimator proposed performs favourablyin simulation experiments. This work is motivated by and illustrated using data on the spread ofwhite nose syndrome, which is a highly fatal infectious disease devastating bat populations inNorth America

4. generációs mobil rendszerek kutatása = Research on 4-th Generation Mobile Systems

A 3G mobil rendszerek szabványosítása a végéhez közeledik, legalábbis a meghatározó képességek tekintetében. Ezért létfontosságú azon technikák, eljárások vizsgálata, melyek a következő, 4G rendszerekben meghatározó szerepet töltenek majd be. Több ilyen kutatási irányvonal is létezik, ezek közül projektünkben a fontosabbakra koncentráltunk. A következőben felsoroljuk a kutatott területeket, és röviden összegezzük az elért eredményeket. Szórt spektrumú rendszerek Kifejlesztettünk egy új, rádiós interfészen alkalmazható hívásengedélyezési eljárást. Szimulációs vizsgálatokkal támasztottuk alá a megoldás hatékonyságát. A projektben kutatóként résztvevő Jeney Gábor sikeresen megvédte Ph.D. disszertációját neurális hálózatokra épülő többfelhasználós detekciós technikák témában. Az elért eredmények Imre Sándor MTA doktori disszertációjába is beépültek. IP alkalmazása mobil rendszerekben Továbbfejlesztettük, teszteltük és általánosítottuk a projekt keretében megalkotott új, gyűrű alapú topológiára épülő, a jelenleginél nagyobb megbízhatóságú IP alapú hozzáférési koncepciót. A témakörben Szalay Máté Ph.D. disszertációja már a nyilvános védésig jutott. Kvantum-informatikai módszerek alkalmazása 3G/4G detekcióra Új, kvantum-informatikai elvekre épülő többfelhasználós detekciós eljárást dolgoztunk ki. Ehhez új kvantum alapú algoritmusokat is kifejlesztettünk. Az eredményeket nemzetközi folyóiratok mellett egy saját könyvben is publikáltuk. | The project consists of three main research directions. Spread spectrum systems: we developed a new call admission control method for 3G air interfaces. Project member Gabor Jeney obtained the Ph.D. degree and project leader Sandor Imre submitted his DSc theses from this area. Application of IP in mobile systems: A ring-based reliable IP mobility mobile access concept and corresponding protocols have been developed. Project member Máté Szalay submitted his Ph.D. theses from this field. Quantum computing based solutions in 3G/4G detection: Quantum computing based multiuser detection algorithm was developed. Based on the results on this field a book was published at Wiley entitled: 'Quantum Computing and Communications - an engineering approach'

Comparing discrete choice models: some housing market examples

Introduction: Since the mid nineteen seventies there has been strong interest within variolls branches of social science in the adaptation of the discrete choice modeling methodology towards a wide range of research problems. This has required recognition of a wide variety of alternative decision-contexts (Landau et a1. 1982) and behaviour-patterns (Lerman, 1979), and has also raised general issues concerning the variable extent to which individual or subgroup choices may be restricted by spatial and temporal constraints. Further interest has been expressed about the spatial and temporal transferability of alternative discrete choice models (Atherton and Ben-Akiva, 1976: Galbraith and Hensher, 1982). This substantive diversification has been accompanied by a variety of technical and methodological refinements of the multinomiallogit (MNL) and multinomial probit (MNP) models, ranging from new estimation procedures (Hausman and Wise, 1978) to the development of less-restrictive, computationally tractable discrete choice model forms (for example, Williams, 1977: Daly and Zachary, 1978). Faced with both a wider selection of methodological tools and a broader spectrum of substantive enquiry, there exists a clear need for formal comparison procedures which the analyst can call upon to evaluate a given model specification or framework. In this paper, I attempt to review briefly some trends amongst recent housing choice studies which employ discrete choice modeling methods. A new procedure is then presented (Hubert and Golledge, 1981; Halperin et al. 1984) which may be used to compare discrete choice models specified and/or structured in accordance with different a priori hypotheses. It is argued that this method fills a gap between existing discrete choice model comparison-procedures which are inapplicable to 'nonnested' model specifications, that is, to competing discrete choice models which comprise totally different variable specifications and that such procedures can usefully aid selection of the discrete choice model most appropriate to any given decision context

Data-driven satisficing measure and ranking

We propose an computational framework for real-time risk assessment and prioritizing for random outcomes without prior information on probability distributions. The basic model is built based on satisficing measure (SM) which yields a single index for risk comparison. Since SM is a dual representation for a family of risk measures, we consider problems constrained by general convex risk measures and specifically by Conditional value-at-risk. Starting from offline optimization, we apply sample average approximation technique and argue the convergence rate and validation of optimal solutions. In online stochastic optimization case, we develop primal-dual stochastic approximation algorithms respectively for general risk constrained problems, and derive their regret bounds. For both offline and online cases, we illustrate the relationship between risk ranking accuracy with sample size (or iterations).Comment: 26 Pages, 6 Figure

Chemotherapy planning and multi-appointment scheduling: formulations, heuristics and bounds

The number of new cancer cases is expected to increase by about 50% in the next 20 years, and the need for chemotherapy treatments will increase accordingly. Chemotherapy treatments are usually performed in outpatient cancer centers where patients affected by different types of tumors are treated. The treatment delivery must be carefully planned to optimize the use of limited resources, such as drugs, medical and nursing staff, consultation and exam rooms, and chairs and beds for the drug infusion. Planning and scheduling chemotherapy treatments involve different problems at different decision levels. In this work, we focus on the patient chemotherapy multi-appointment planning and scheduling problem at an operational level, namely the problem of determining the day and starting time of the oncologist visit and drug infusion for a set of patients to be scheduled along a short-term planning horizon. We use a per-pathology paradigm, where the days of the week in which patients can be treated, depending on their pathology, are known. We consider different metrics and formulate the problem as a multi-objective optimization problem tackled by sequentially solving three problems in a lexicographic multi-objective fashion. The ultimate aim is to minimize the patient's discomfort. The problems turn out to be computationally challenging, thus we propose bounds and ad-hoc approaches, exploiting alternative problem formulations, decomposition, and $k$-opt search. The approaches are tested on real data from an Italian outpatient cancer center and outperform state-of-the-art solvers.Comment: 28 pages, 3 figure

Chance Constrained Mixed Integer Program: Bilinear and Linear Formulations, and Benders Decomposition

In this paper, we study chance constrained mixed integer program with consideration of recourse decisions and their incurred cost, developed on a finite discrete scenario set. Through studying a non-traditional bilinear mixed integer formulation, we derive its linear counterparts and show that they could be stronger than existing linear formulations. We also develop a variant of Jensen's inequality that extends the one for stochastic program. To solve this challenging problem, we present a variant of Benders decomposition method in bilinear form, which actually provides an easy-to-use algorithm framework for further improvements, along with a few enhancement strategies based on structural properties or Jensen's inequality. Computational study shows that the presented Benders decomposition method, jointly with appropriate enhancement techniques, outperforms a commercial solver by an order of magnitude on solving chance constrained program or detecting its infeasibility

On the evolutionary optimisation of many conflicting objectives

This inquiry explores the effectiveness of a class of modern evolutionary algorithms, represented by Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm (NSGA) components, for solving optimisation tasks with many conflicting objectives. Optimiser behaviour is assessed for a grid of mutation and recombination operator configurations. Performance maps are obtained for the dual aims of proximity to, and distribution across, the optimal trade-off surface. Performance sweet-spots for both variation operators are observed to contract as the number of objectives is increased. Classical settings for recombination are shown to be suitable for small numbers of objectives but correspond to very poor performance for higher numbers of objectives, even when large population sizes are used. Explanations for this behaviour are offered via the concepts of dominance resistance and active diversity promotion

Online-Computation Approach to Optimal Control of Noise-Affected Nonlinear Systems with Continuous State and Control Spaces

© 2007 EUCA.A novel online-computation approach to optimal control of nonlinear, noise-affected systems with continuous state and control spaces is presented. In the proposed algorithm, system noise is explicitly incorporated into the control decision. This leads to superior results compared to state-of-the-art nonlinear controllers that neglect this influence. The solution of an optimal nonlinear controller for a corresponding deterministic system is employed to find a meaningful state space restriction. This restriction is obtained by means of approximate state prediction using the noisy system equation. Within this constrained state space, an optimal closed-loop solution for a finite decision-making horizon (prediction horizon) is determined within an adaptively restricted optimization space. Interleaving stochastic dynamic programming and value function approximation yields a solution to the considered optimal control problem. The enhanced performance of the proposed discrete-time controller is illustrated by means of a scalar example system. Nonlinear model predictive control is applied to address approximate treatment of infinite-horizon problems by the finite-horizon controller

Centralized versus market-based approaches to mobile task allocation problem: State-of-the-art

Centralized approach has been adopted for finding solutions to resource allocation problems (RAPs) in many real-life applications. On the other hand, market-based approach has been proposed as an alternative to solve the problem due to recent advancement in ICT technologies. In spite of the existence of some efforts to review the pros and cons of each approach in RAPs, the studies cannot be directly applied to specific problem domains like mobile task allocation problem which is characterised with high level of uncertainty on the availability of resources (workers). This paper aims to review existing studies on task allocation problems(TAPs) focusing on those two approaches and their comparison and identify major issues that need to be resolved for comparing the two approaches in mobile task allocation problems. Mobile Task Allocation Problem (MTAP) is defined and its problematic structures are explained in relation with task allocation to mobile workers. Solutions produced by each approach to some applications and variations of MTAP are also discussed and compared. Finally, some future research directions are identified in order to compare both approaches in function of uncertainty emerging from the mobile nature of the MTAP