Impact of New Madrid Seismic Zone Earthquakes on the Central USA, Vol. 1 and 2

The information presented in this report has been developed to support the Catastrophic Earthquake Planning Scenario workshops held by the Federal Emergency Management Agency. Four FEMA Regions (Regions IV, V, VI and VII) were involved in the New Madrid Seismic Zone (NMSZ) scenario workshops. The four FEMA Regions include eight states, namely Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Tennessee, Alabama, Mississippi, Arkansas and Missouri. The earthquake impact assessment presented hereafter employs an analysis methodology comprising three major components: hazard, inventory and fragility (or vulnerability). The hazard characterizes not only the shaking of the ground but also the consequential transient and permanent deformation of the ground due to strong ground shaking as well as fire and flooding. The inventory comprises all assets in a specific region, including the built environment and population data. Fragility or vulnerability functions relate the severity of shaking to the likelihood of reaching or exceeding damage states (light, moderate, extensive and near-collapse, for example). Social impact models are also included and employ physical infrastructure damage results to estimate the effects on exposed communities. Whereas the modeling software packages used (HAZUS MR3; FEMA, 2008; and MAEviz, Mid-America Earthquake Center, 2008) provide default values for all of the above, most of these default values were replaced by components of traceable provenance and higher reliability than the default data, as described below. The hazard employed in this investigation includes ground shaking for a single scenario event representing the rupture of all three New Madrid fault segments. The NMSZ consists of three fault segments: the northeast segment, the reelfoot thrust or central segment, and the southwest segment. Each segment is assumed to generate a deterministic magnitude 7.7 (Mw7.7) earthquake caused by a rupture over the entire length of the segment. US Geological Survey (USGS) approved the employed magnitude and hazard approach. The combined rupture of all three segments simultaneously is designed to approximate the sequential rupture of all three segments over time. The magnitude of Mw7.7 is retained for the combined rupture. Full liquefaction susceptibility maps for the entire region have been developed and are used in this study. Inventory is enhanced through the use of the Homeland Security Infrastructure Program (HSIP) 2007 and 2008 Gold Datasets (NGA Office of America, 2007). These datasets contain various types of critical infrastructure that are key inventory components for earthquake impact assessment. Transportation and utility facility inventories are improved while regional natural gas and oil pipelines are added to the inventory, alongside high potential loss facility inventories. The National Bridge Inventory (NBI, 2008) and other state and independent data sources are utilized to improve the inventory. New fragility functions derived by the MAE Center are employed in this study for both buildings and bridges providing more regionally-applicable estimations of damage for these infrastructure components. Default fragility values are used to determine damage likelihoods for all other infrastructure components. The study reports new analysis using MAE Center-developed transportation network flow models that estimate changes in traffic flow and travel time due to earthquake damage. Utility network modeling was also undertaken to provide damage estimates for facilities and pipelines. An approximate flood risk model was assembled to identify areas that are likely to be flooded as a result of dam or levee failure. Social vulnerability identifies portions of the eight-state study region that are especially vulnerable due to various factors such as age, income, disability, and language proficiency. Social impact models include estimates of displaced and shelter-seeking populations as well as commodities and medical requirements. Lastly, search and rescue requirements quantify the number of teams and personnel required to clear debris and search for trapped victims. The results indicate that Tennessee, Arkansas, and Missouri are most severely impacted. Illinois and Kentucky are also impacted, though not as severely as the previous three states. Nearly 715,000 buildings are damaged in the eight-state study region. About 42,000 search and rescue personnel working in 1,500 teams are required to respond to the earthquakes. Damage to critical infrastructure (essential facilities, transportation and utility lifelines) is substantial in the 140 impacted counties near the rupture zone, including 3,500 damaged bridges and nearly 425,000 breaks and leaks to both local and interstate pipelines. Approximately 2.6 million households are without power after the earthquake. Nearly 86,000 injuries and fatalities result from damage to infrastructure. Nearly 130 hospitals are damaged and most are located in the impacted counties near the rupture zone. There is extensive damage and substantial travel delays in both Memphis, Tennessee, and St. Louis, Missouri, thus hampering search and rescue as well as evacuation. Moreover roughly 15 major bridges are unusable. Three days after the earthquake, 7.2 million people are still displaced and 2 million people seek temporary shelter. Direct economic losses for the eight states total nearly $300 billion, while indirect losses may be at least twice this amount. The contents of this report provide the various assumptions used to arrive at the impact estimates, detailed background on the above quantitative consequences, and a breakdown of the figures per sector at the FEMA region and state levels. The information is presented in a manner suitable for personnel and agencies responsible for establishing response plans based on likely impacts of plausible earthquakes in the central USA.Armu W0132T-06-02unpublishednot peer reviewe

Seismic Risk Analysis of Revenue Losses, Gross Regional Product and transportation systems.

Natural threats like earthquakes, hurricanes or tsunamis have shown seri- ous impacts on communities. In the past, major earthquakes in the United States like Loma Prieta 1989, Northridge 1994, or recent events in Italy like L’Aquila 2009 or Emilia 2012 earthquake emphasized the importance of pre- paredness and awareness to reduce social impacts. Earthquakes impacted businesses and dramatically reduced the gross regional product. Seismic Hazard is traditionally assessed using Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Anal- ysis (PSHA). PSHA well represents the hazard at a specific location, but it’s unsatisfactory for spatially distributed systems. Scenario earthquakes overcome the problem representing the actual distribution of shaking over a spatially distributed system. The performance of distributed productive systems during the recovery process needs to be explored. Scenario earthquakes have been used to assess the risk in bridge networks and the social losses in terms of gross regional product reduction. The proposed method for scenario earthquakes has been applied to a real case study: Treviso, a city in the North East of Italy. The proposed method for scenario earthquakes requires three models: one representation of the sources (Italian Seismogenic Zonation 9), one attenuation relationship (Sa- betta and Pugliese 1996) and a model of the occurrence rate of magnitudes (Gutenberg Richter). A methodology has been proposed to reduce thou- sands of scenarios to a subset consistent with the hazard at each location. Earthquake scenarios, along with Mote Carlo method, have been used to simulate business damage. The response of business facilities to earthquake has been obtained from fragility curves for precast industrial building. Fur- thermore, from business damage the reduction of productivity has been simulated using economic data from the National statistical service and a proposed piecewise “loss of functionality model”. To simulate the economic process in the time domain, an innovative businesses recovery function has been proposed. The proposed method has been applied to generate scenarios earthquakes at the location of bridges and business areas. The proposed selection method- ology has been applied to reduce 8000 scenarios to a subset of 60. Subse- quently, these scenario earthquakes have been used to calculate three system performance parameters: the risk in transportation networks, the risk in terms of business damage and the losses of gross regional product. A novel model for business recovery process has been tested. The proposed model has been used to represent the business recovery process and simulate the effects of government aids allocated for reconstruction. The proposed method has efficiently modeled the seismic hazard using scenario earthquakes. The scenario earthquakes presented have been used to assess possible consequences of earthquakes in seismic prone zones and to increase the preparedness. Scenario earthquakes have been used to sim- ulate the effects to economy of the impacted area; a significant Gross Regional Product reduction has been shown, up to 77% with an earthquake with 0.0003 probability of occurrence. The results showed that limited funds available after the disaster can be distributed in a more efficient way

Performance Measures to Assess Resiliency and Efficiency of Transit Systems

Transit agencies are interested in assessing the short-, mid-, and long-term performance of infrastructure with the objective of enhancing resiliency and efficiency. This report addresses three distinct aspects of New Jersey’s Transit System: 1) resiliency of bridge infrastructure, 2) resiliency of public transit systems, and 3) efficiency of transit systems with an emphasis on paratransit service. This project proposed a conceptual framework to assess the performance and resiliency for bridge structures in a transit network before and after disasters utilizing structural health monitoring (SHM), finite element (FE) modeling and remote sensing using Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR). The public transit systems in NY/NJ were analyzed based on their vulnerability, resiliency, and efficiency in recovery following a major natural disaster

BIM and GIS applications in bridge projects : a critical review

In recent years, interest in BIM and GIS applications in civil engineering has been growing. For bridge engineering, BIM/GIS applications such as simulation, visualization, and secondary development have been used to assist practitioners in managing bridge construction and decision-making, including selection of bridge location maintenance decisions. In situ 3D modelling of existing bridges with detailed images from UAV camera has allowed engineers to conduct remote condition assessments of bridges and decide on required maintenance actions. Several studies have investigated the applications of BIM/GIS technology on bridge projects. However, there has been limited focus on reviewing the outcomes of these studies to identify the limitations of BIM and GIS applications on bridge projects. Therefore, the aim of this study was to review the research on BIM/GIS technology applications in bridge projects over the last decade. Using a systematic review process, a total of 90 publications that met the inclusion criteria were reviewed in this study. The review identified the state-of-the-art methods of BIM and GIS applications, respectively, at the planning and design, construction, and operation and maintenance phases of bridge projects. However, the findings point to segregated application of BIM and GIS at all phases of bridge projects. The findings of this study will contribute to guiding practitioners in selecting appropriate BIM and GIS technologies for different aspects of bridge projects

Climate Change Impact Assessment for Surface Transportation in the Pacific Northwest and Alaska

WA-RD 772.

Integrated railway design using Infrastructure-Building Information Modeling. The case study of the port of Venice

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