Application of Real Options Theory to Software-intensive System Acquisitions

Proceedings Paper (for Acquisition Research Program)In the Department of Defense (DoD), the typical outcome of a software acquisition program has been massive cost escalation, slipping planned delivery dates and making major cuts in the planned software functionality to guarantee program success. To counter this dilemma, the DoD put forth a new weapons acquisition policy in 2003 based on an evolutionary acquisition approach to foster increased efficiency while building flexibility in the acquisition process. However, the evolutionary acquisition approach often relies on the spiral development process, which assumes end-state requirements are known at the inception of the development process, a misrepresentation of reality in the acquisition of DoD software-intensive weapons systems. This article presents a framework to address requirements uncertainty as it relates to software acquisition. The framework is based on Real Options theory and aims at mitigating risks associated with requirement volatility based on the technology objectives''constraints as put forth by the customer at the acquisition decision-making level.Naval Postgraduate School Acquisition Research ProgramApproved for public release; distribution is unlimited

Decision support for assessing the feasibility of a product for remanufacture

Remanufacturing is the process of restoring old, damaged and failed products to a condition as good as new . Whilst the practice of remanufacture has been conducted for almost a century, the attention it receives within mainstream business is increasing due to potential benefits associated with economic savings and reduced environmental impact. There are several challenges in operating a successful remanufacturing business, one of which is how to assess the feasibility of remanufacturing. Remanufacturing does not lend itself towards every product due to factors related to the product, process, market and business capabilities, therefore careful assessment should be conducted before taking on a remanufacturing endeavour. This thesis reports the research undertaken to aid decision makers assessing the feasibility of a product for remanufacture. The aim has therefore been to determine the requirements of assessing remanufacturing feasibility, then to develop a tool to support this activity. Requirements of the decision making process were established through a detailed review of the literature supplemented with additional interviews from remanufacturing businesses, whilst research gaps for support tools were identified through a systematic review of existing tools presented within academia. Through these reviews it was determined that current methods do not provide enough support in determining the impact of uncertainties found within remanufacturing against key assessment criteria, such as economic cost. Focus upon the tool development was therefore directed at estimating remanufacturing cost of a product under uncertain conditions. The tool was designed, utilising techniques such as Monte Carlo analysis, fuzzy sets and case based reasoning. A prototype of the tool was then implemented within an object oriented structure and deployed as web service. Testing and validation were conducted by demonstrating the functionality of the tool against a set of specification requirements, through two contrasting remanufacturing case studies identified within industry. In summary this research has developed a tool to support the assessment of remanufacturing viability through cost estimation under uncertain conditions, identifying requirements through a detailed literature review and interviews with industry and providing validation through two detailed case studies. The tool is novel in its ability to calculate both cost and the risk associated with the uncertainties present within the remanufacturing domain

Integrated helicopter survivability

A high level of survivability is important to protect military personnel and equipment and is central to UK defence policy. Integrated Survivability is the systems engineering methodology to achieve optimum survivability at an affordable cost, enabling a mission to be completed successfully in the face of a hostile environment. “Integrated Helicopter Survivability” is an emerging discipline that is applying this systems engineering approach within the helicopter domain. Philosophically the overall survivability objective is ‘zero attrition’, even though this is unobtainable in practice. The research question was: “How can helicopter survivability be assessed in an integrated way so that the best possible level of survivability can be achieved within the constraints and how will the associated methods support the acquisition process?” The research found that principles from safety management could be applied to the survivability problem, in particular reducing survivability risk to as low as reasonably practicable (ALARP). A survivability assessment process was developed to support this approach and was linked into the military helicopter life cycle. This process positioned the survivability assessment methods and associated input data derivation activities. The system influence diagram method was effective at defining the problem and capturing the wider survivability interactions, including those with the defence lines of development (DLOD). Influence diagrams and Quality Function Deployment (QFD) methods were effective visual tools to elicit stakeholder requirements and improve communication across organisational and domain boundaries. The semi-quantitative nature of the QFD method leads to numbers that are not real. These results are suitable for helping to prioritise requirements early in the helicopter life cycle, but they cannot provide the quantifiable estimate of risk needed to demonstrate ALARP. The probabilistic approach implemented within the Integrated Survivability Assessment Model (ISAM) was developed to provide a quantitative estimate of ‘risk’ to support the approach of reducing survivability risks to ALARP. Limitations in available input data for the rate of encountering threats leads to a probability of survival that is not a real number that can be used to assess actual loss rates. However, the method does support an assessment across platform options, provided that the ‘test environment’ remains consistent throughout the assessment. The survivability assessment process and ISAM have been applied to an acquisition programme, where they have been tested to support the survivability decision making and design process. The survivability ‘test environment’ is an essential element of the survivability assessment process and is required by integrated survivability tools such as ISAM. This test environment, comprising of threatening situations that span the complete spectrum of helicopter operations requires further development. The ‘test environment’ would be used throughout the helicopter life cycle from selection of design concepts through to test and evaluation of delivered solutions. It would be updated as part of the through life capability management (TLCM) process. A framework of survivability analysis tools requires development that can provide probabilistic input data into ISAM and allow derivation of confidence limits. This systems level framework would be capable of informing more detailed survivability design work later in the life cycle and could be enabled through a MATLAB® based approach. Survivability is an emerging system property that influences the whole system capability. There is a need for holistic capability level analysis tools that quantify survivability along with other influencing capabilities such as: mobility (payload / range), lethality, situational awareness, sustainability and other mission capabilities. It is recommended that an investigation of capability level analysis methods across defence should be undertaken to ensure a coherent and compliant approach to systems engineering that adopts best practice from across the domains. Systems dynamics techniques should be considered for further use by Dstl and the wider MOD, particularly within the survivability and operational analysis domains. This would improve understanding of the problem space, promote a more holistic approach and enable a better balance of capability, within which survivability is one essential element. There would be value in considering accidental losses within a more comprehensive ‘survivability’ analysis. This approach would enable a better balance to be struck between safety and survivability risk mitigations and would lead to an improved, more integrated overall design

Human Health and Support Systems Capability Roadmap Progress Review

The Human Health and Support Systems Capability Roadmap focuses on research and technology development and demonstration required to ensure the health, habitation, safety, and effectiveness of crews in and beyond low Earth orbit. It contains three distinct sub-capabilities: Human Health and Performance. Life Support and Habitats. Extra-Vehicular Activity

NASA Capability Roadmaps Executive Summary

This document is the result of eight months of hard work and dedication from NASA, industry, other government agencies, and academic experts from across the nation. It provides a summary of the capabilities necessary to execute the Vision for Space Exploration and the key architecture decisions that drive the direction for those capabilities. This report is being provided to the Exploration Systems Architecture Study (ESAS) team for consideration in development of an architecture approach and investment strategy to support NASA future mission, programs and budget requests. In addition, it will be an excellent reference for NASA's strategic planning. A more detailed set of roadmaps at the technology and sub-capability levels are available on CD. These detailed products include key driving assumptions, capability maturation assessments, and technology and capability development roadmaps

Schätzwerterfüllung in Softwareentwicklungsprojekten

Effort estimates are of utmost economic importance in software development projects. Estimates bridge the gap between managers and the invisible and almost artistic domain of developers. They give a means to managers to track and control projects. Consequently, numerous estimation approaches have been developed over the past decades, starting with Allan Albrecht's Function Point Analysis in the late 1970s. However, this work neither tries to develop just another estimation approach, nor focuses on improving accuracy of existing techniques. Instead of characterizing software development as a technological problem, this work understands software development as a sociological challenge. Consequently, this work focuses on the question, what happens when developers are confronted with estimates representing the major instrument of management control? Do estimates influence developers, or are they unaffected? Is it irrational to expect that developers start to communicate and discuss estimates, conform to them, work strategically, hide progress or delay? This study shows that it is inappropriate to assume an independency of estimated and actual development effort. A theory is developed and tested, that explains how developers and managers influence the relationship between estimated and actual development effort. The theory therefore elaborates the phenomenon of estimation fulfillment.Schätzwerte in Softwareentwicklungsprojekten sind von besonderer ökonomischer Wichtigkeit. Sie überbrücken die Lücke zwischen Projektleitern und der unsichtbaren und beinahe künstlerischen Domäne der Entwickler. Sie stellen ein Instrument dar, welches erlaubt, Projekte zu verfolgen und zu kontrollieren. Daher wurden in den vergangenen vier Jahrzehnten diverse Schätzverfahren entwickelt, beginnend mit der "Function Point" Analyse von Allan Albrecht. Diese Arbeit versucht allerdings weder ein neues Schätzverfahren zu entwickeln noch bestehende Verfahren zu verbessern. Anstatt Softwareentwicklung als technologisches Problem zu charakterisieren, wird in dieser Arbeit eine soziologische Perspektive genutzt. Dementsprechend fokussiert diese Arbeit die Frage, was passiert, wenn Entwickler mit Schätzwerten konfrontiert werden, die das wichtigste Kontrollinstrument des Managements darstellen? Lassen sich Entwickler von diesen Werten beeinflussen oder bleiben sie davon unberührt? Wäre es irrational, zu erwarten, dass Entwickler Schätzwerte kommunizieren, diese diskutieren, sich diesen anpassen, strategisch arbeiten sowie Verzögerungen verschleiern? Die vorliegende Studie zeigt, dass die Unabhängigkeitsannahme von Schätzwerten und tatsächlichem Entwicklungsaufwand unbegründet ist. Es wird eine Theorie entwickelt, welche erklärt, wie Entwickler und Projektleiter die Beziehung von Schätzungen und Aufwand beeinflussen und dass das Phänomen der Schätzwerterfüllung auftreten kann

Technologies and Applications for Big Data Value

This open access book explores cutting-edge solutions and best practices for big data and data-driven AI applications for the data-driven economy. It provides the reader with a basis for understanding how technical issues can be overcome to offer real-world solutions to major industrial areas. The book starts with an introductory chapter that provides an overview of the book by positioning the following chapters in terms of their contributions to technology frameworks which are key elements of the Big Data Value Public-Private Partnership and the upcoming Partnership on AI, Data and Robotics. The remainder of the book is then arranged in two parts. The first part “Technologies and Methods” contains horizontal contributions of technologies and methods that enable data value chains to be applied in any sector. The second part “Processes and Applications” details experience reports and lessons from using big data and data-driven approaches in processes and applications. Its chapters are co-authored with industry experts and cover domains including health, law, finance, retail, manufacturing, mobility, and smart cities. Contributions emanate from the Big Data Value Public-Private Partnership and the Big Data Value Association, which have acted as the European data community's nucleus to bring together businesses with leading researchers to harness the value of data to benefit society, business, science, and industry. The book is of interest to two primary audiences, first, undergraduate and postgraduate students and researchers in various fields, including big data, data science, data engineering, and machine learning and AI. Second, practitioners and industry experts engaged in data-driven systems, software design and deployment projects who are interested in employing these advanced methods to address real-world problems

Karl E. Peace papers

This collection consists of the personal and research papers of Karl E. Peace, Professor of Biostatistics at Georgia Southern University and namesake of the Karl E. Peace Center for Biostatistics and Survey Research. Materials span 1941to 2018 and include, correspondence, teaching materials, published articles, and manuscripts. A small portion of 3 photographs and artists renderings are also included. This collection is still undergoing processing. Find this collection in the University Libraries\u27 catalog.https://digitalcommons.georgiasouthern.edu/finding-aids/1100/thumbnail.jp