Quantifying Forecast Uncertainty in the Energy Domain

This dissertation focuses on quantifying forecast uncertainties in the energy domain, especially for the electricity and natural gas industry. Accurate forecasts help the energy industry minimize their production costs. However, inaccurate weather forecasts, unusual human behavior, sudden changes in economic conditions, unpredictable availability of renewable sources (wind and solar), etc., represent uncertainties in the energy demand-supply chain. In the current smart grid era, total electricity demand from non-renewable sources influences by the uncertainty of the renewable sources. Thus, quantifying forecast uncertainty has become important to improve the quality of forecasts and decision making. In the natural gas industry, the task of the gas controllers is to guide the hourly natural gas flow in such a way that it remains within a certain daily maximum and minimum flow limits to avoid penalties. Due to inherent uncertainties in the natural gas forecasts, setting such maximum and minimum flow limits a day or more in advance is difficult. Probabilistic forecasts (cumulative distribution functions), which quantify forecast uncertainty, are a useful tool to guide gas controllers to make such tough decisions. Three methods (parametric, semi-parametric, and non-parametric) are presented in this dissertation to generate 168-hour horizon probabilistic forecasts for two real utilities (electricity and natural gas) in the US. Probabilistic forecasting is used as a tool to solve a real-life problem in the natural gas industry. A benchmark was created based on the existing solution, which assumes forecast error is normal. Two new probabilistic forecasting methods are implemented in this work without the normality assumption. There is no single popular evaluation technique available to assess probabilistic forecasts, which is one reason for people’s lack of interest in using probabilistic forecasts. Existing scoring rules are complicated, dataset dependent, and provide less emphasis on reliability (empirical distribution matches with observed distribution) than sharpness (the smallest distance between any two quantiles of a CDF). A graphical way to evaluate probabilistic forecasts along with two new scoring rules are offered in this work. The non-parametric and semi-parametric probabilistic forecasting methods outperformed the benchmark method during unusual days (difficult days to forecast) as well as on other days

Transient stability assessment of hybrid distributed generation using computational intelligence approaches

Includes bibliographical references.Due to increasing integration of new technologies into the grid such as hybrid electric vehicles, distributed generations, power electronic interface circuits, advanced controllers etc., the present power system network is now more complex than in the past. Consequently, the recent rate of blackouts recorded in some parts of the world indicates that the power system is stressed. The real time/online monitoring and prediction of stability limit is needed to prevent future blackouts. In the last decade, Distributed Generators (DGs) among other technologies have received increasing attention. This is because DGs have the capability to meet peak demand, reduce losses, due to proximity to consumers and produce clean energy and thus reduce the production of CO₂. More benefits can be obtained when two or more DGs are combined together to form what is known as Hybrid Distributed Generation (HDG). The challenge with hybrid distributed generation (HDG) powered by intermittent renewable energy sources such as solar PV, wind turbine and small hydro power is that the system is more vulnerable to instabilities compared to single renewable energy source DG. This is because of the intermittent nature of the renewable energy sources and the complex interaction between the DGs and the distribution network. Due to the complexity and the stress level of the present power system network, real time/online monitoring and prediction of stability limits is becoming an essential and important part of present day control centres. Up to now, research on the impact of HDG on the transient stability is very limited. Generally, to perform transient stability assessment, an analytical approach is often used. The analytical approach requires a large volume of data, detailed mathematical equations and the understanding of the dynamics of the system. Due to the unavailability of accurate mathematical equations for most dynamic systems, and given the large volume of data required, the analytical method is inadequate and time consuming. Moreover, it requires long simulation time to assess the stability limits of the system. Therefore, the analytical approach is inadequate to handle real time operation of power system. In order to carry out real time transient stability assessment under an increasing nonlinear and time varying dynamics, fast scalable and dynamic algorithms are required. Transient Stability Assessment Of Hybrid Distributed Generation Using Computational Intelligence Approaches These algorithms must be able to perform advanced monitoring, decision making, forecasting, control and optimization. Computational Intelligence (CI) based algorithm such as neural networks coupled with Wide Area Monitoring System (WAMS) such as Phasor Measurement Unit (PMUs) have been shown to successfully model non-linear dynamics and predict stability limits in real time. To cope with the shortcoming of the analytical approach, a computational intelligence method based on Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) was developed in this thesis to assess transient stability in real time. Appropriate data related to the hybrid generation (i.e., Solar PV, wind generator, small hydropower) were generated using the analytical approach for the training and testing of the ANN models. In addition, PMUs integrated in Real Time Digital Simulator (RTDS) were used to gather data for the real time training of the ANNs and the prediction of the Critical Clearing Time (CCT)

Computational intelligent methods for trusting in social networks

104 p.This Thesis covers three research lines of Social Networks. The first proposed reseach line is related with Trust. Different ways of feature extraction are proposed for Trust Prediction comparing results with classic methods. The problem of bad balanced datasets is covered in this work. The second proposed reseach line is related with Recommendation Systems. Two experiments are proposed in this work. The first experiment is about recipe generation with a bread machine. The second experiment is about product generation based on rating given by users. The third research line is related with Influence Maximization. In this work a new heuristic method is proposed to give the minimal set of nodes that maximizes the influence of the network

Applications of discrete wavelet transform for feature extraction to increase the accuracy of monitoring systems of liquid petroleum products

This paper presents a methodology to monitor the liquid petroleum products which pass through transmission pipes. A simulation setup consisting of an X-ray tube, a detector, and a pipe was established using a Monte Carlo n-particle X-version transport code to investigate a two-by-two mixture of four different petroleum products, namely, ethylene glycol, crude oil, gasoline, and gasoil, in deferent volumetric ratios. After collecting the signals of each simulation, discrete wavelet transform (DWT) was applied as the feature extraction system. Then, the statistical feature, named the standard deviation, was calculated from the approximation of the fifth level, and the details of the second to fifth level provide appropriate inputs for neural network training. Three multilayer perceptron neural networks were utilized to predict the volume ratio of three types of petroleum products, and the volume ratio of the fourth product could easily be obtained from the results of the three presented networks. Finally, a root mean square error of less than 1.77 was obtained in predicting the volume ratio, which was much more accurate than in previous research. This high accuracy was due to the use of DWT for feature extraction

A Comprehensive Survey on Particle Swarm Optimization Algorithm and Its Applications

Particle swarm optimization (PSO) is a heuristic global optimization method, proposed originally by Kennedy and Eberhart in 1995. It is now one of the most commonly used optimization techniques. This survey presented a comprehensive investigation of PSO. On one hand, we provided advances with PSO, including its modifications (including quantum-behaved PSO, bare-bones PSO, chaotic PSO, and fuzzy PSO), population topology (as fully connected, von Neumann, ring, star, random, etc.), hybridization (with genetic algorithm, simulated annealing, Tabu search, artificial immune system, ant colony algorithm, artificial bee colony, differential evolution, harmonic search, and biogeography-based optimization), extensions (to multiobjective, constrained, discrete, and binary optimization), theoretical analysis (parameter selection and tuning, and convergence analysis), and parallel implementation (in multicore, multiprocessor, GPU, and cloud computing forms). On the other hand, we offered a survey on applications of PSO to the following eight fields: electrical and electronic engineering, automation control systems, communication theory, operations research, mechanical engineering, fuel and energy, medicine, chemistry, and biology. It is hoped that this survey would be beneficial for the researchers studying PSO algorithms

NOVEL ALGORITHMS AND TOOLS FOR LIGAND-BASED DRUG DESIGN

Computer-aided drug design (CADD) has become an indispensible component in modern drug discovery projects. The prediction of physicochemical properties and pharmacological properties of candidate compounds effectively increases the probability for drug candidates to pass latter phases of clinic trials. Ligand-based virtual screening exhibits advantages over structure-based drug design, in terms of its wide applicability and high computational efficiency. The established chemical repositories and reported bioassays form a gigantic knowledgebase to derive quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) and structure-property relationship (QSPR). In addition, the rapid advance of machine learning techniques suggests new solutions for data-mining huge compound databases. In this thesis, a novel ligand classification algorithm, Ligand Classifier of Adaptively Boosting Ensemble Decision Stumps (LiCABEDS), was reported for the prediction of diverse categorical pharmacological properties. LiCABEDS was successfully applied to model 5-HT1A ligand functionality, ligand selectivity of cannabinoid receptor subtypes, and blood-brain-barrier (BBB) passage. LiCABEDS was implemented and integrated with graphical user interface, data import/export, automated model training/ prediction, and project management. Besides, a non-linear ligand classifier was proposed, using a novel Topomer kernel function in support vector machine. With the emphasis on green high-performance computing, graphics processing units are alternative platforms for computationally expensive tasks. A novel GPU algorithm was designed and implemented in order to accelerate the calculation of chemical similarities with dense-format molecular fingerprints. Finally, a compound acquisition algorithm was reported to construct structurally diverse screening library in order to enhance hit rates in high-throughput screening

Artificial Intelligence and Cognitive Computing

Artificial intelligence (AI) is a subject garnering increasing attention in both academia and the industry today. The understanding is that AI-enhanced methods and techniques create a variety of opportunities related to improving basic and advanced business functions, including production processes, logistics, financial management and others. As this collection demonstrates, AI-enhanced tools and methods tend to offer more precise results in the fields of engineering, financial accounting, tourism, air-pollution management and many more. The objective of this collection is to bring these topics together to offer the reader a useful primer on how AI-enhanced tools and applications can be of use in today’s world. In the context of the frequently fearful, skeptical and emotion-laden debates on AI and its value added, this volume promotes a positive perspective on AI and its impact on society. AI is a part of a broader ecosystem of sophisticated tools, techniques and technologies, and therefore, it is not immune to developments in that ecosystem. It is thus imperative that inter- and multidisciplinary research on AI and its ecosystem is encouraged. This collection contributes to that

Cyberthreats, Attacks and Intrusion Detection in Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition Networks

Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) systems are computer-based process control systems that interconnect and monitor remote physical processes. There have been many real world documented incidents and cyber-attacks affecting SCADA systems, which clearly illustrate critical infrastructure vulnerabilities. These reported incidents demonstrate that cyber-attacks against SCADA systems might produce a variety of financial damage and harmful events to humans and their environment. This dissertation documents four contributions towards increased security for SCADA systems. First, a set of cyber-attacks was developed. Second, each attack was executed against two fully functional SCADA systems in a laboratory environment; a gas pipeline and a water storage tank. Third, signature based intrusion detection system rules were developed and tested which can be used to generate alerts when the aforementioned attacks are executed against a SCADA system. Fourth, a set of features was developed for a decision tree based anomaly based intrusion detection system. The features were tested using the datasets developed for this work. This dissertation documents cyber-attacks on both serial based and Ethernet based SCADA networks. Four categories of attacks against SCADA systems are discussed: reconnaissance, malicious response injection, malicious command injection and denial of service. In order to evaluate performance of data mining and machine learning algorithms for intrusion detection systems in SCADA systems, a network dataset to be used for benchmarking intrusion detection systemswas generated. This network dataset includes different classes of attacks that simulate different attack scenarios on process control systems. This dissertation describes four SCADA network intrusion detection datasets; a full and abbreviated dataset for both the gas pipeline and water storage tank systems. Each feature in the dataset is captured from network flow records. This dataset groups two different categories of features that can be used as input to an intrusion detection system. First, network traffic features describe the communication patterns in a SCADA system. This research developed both signature based IDS and anomaly based IDS for the gas pipeline and water storage tank serial based SCADA systems. The performance of both types of IDS were evaluates by measuring detection rate and the prevalence of false positives