Analytic Confusion Matrix Bounds for Fault Detection and Isolation Using a Sum-of-Squared-Residuals Approach

Given a system which can fail in 1 of n different ways, a fault detection and isolation (FDI) algorithm uses sensor data to determine which fault is the most likely to have occurred. The effectiveness of an FDI algorithm can be quantified by a confusion matrix, also called a diagnosis probability matrix, which indicates the probability that each fault is isolated given that each fault has occurred. Confusion matrices are often generated with simulation data, particularly for complex systems. In this paper, we perform FDI using sum-of-squared residuals (SSRs). We assume that the sensor residuals are s-independent and Gaussian, which gives the SSRs chi-squared distributions. We then generate analytic lower, and upper bounds on the confusion matrix elements. This approach allows for the generation of optimal sensor sets without numerical simulations. The confusion matrix bounds are verified with simulated aircraft engine data

Analytic Confusion Matrix Bounds for Fault Detection and Isolation Using a Sum-of-Squared- Residuals Approach

Given a system which can fail in 1 or n different ways, a fault detection and isolation (FDI) algorithm uses sensor data in order to determine which fault is the most likely to have occurred. The effectiveness of an FDI algorithm can be quantified by a confusion matrix, which i ndicates the probability that each fault is isolated given that each fault has occurred. Confusion matrices are often generated with simulation data, particularly for complex systems. In this paper we perform FDI using sums of squares of sensor residuals (SSRs). We assume that the sensor residuals are Gaussian, which gives the SSRs a chi-squared distribution. We then generate analytic lower and upper bounds on the confusion matrix elements. This allows for the generation of optimal sensor sets without numerical simulations. The confusion matrix bound s are verified with simulated aircraft engine data

An Integrated Fuzzy Inference Based Monitoring, Diagnostic, and Prognostic System

To date the majority of the research related to the development and application of monitoring, diagnostic, and prognostic systems has been exclusive in the sense that only one of the three areas is the focus of the work. While previous research progresses each of the respective fields, the end result is a variable grab bag of techniques that address each problem independently. Also, the new field of prognostics is lacking in the sense that few methods have been proposed that produce estimates of the remaining useful life (RUL) of a device or can be realistically applied to real-world systems. This work addresses both problems by developing the nonparametric fuzzy inference system (NFIS) which is adapted for monitoring, diagnosis, and prognosis and then proposing the path classification and estimation (PACE) model that can be used to predict the RUL of a device that does or does not have a well defined failure threshold. To test and evaluate the proposed methods, they were applied to detect, diagnose, and prognose faults and failures in the hydraulic steering system of a deep oil exploration drill. The monitoring system implementing an NFIS predictor and sequential probability ratio test (SPRT) detector produced comparable detection rates to a monitoring system implementing an autoassociative kernel regression (AAKR) predictor and SPRT detector, specifically 80% vs. 85% for the NFIS and AAKR monitor respectively. It was also found that the NFIS monitor produced fewer false alarms. Next, the monitoring system outputs were used to generate symptom patterns for k-nearest neighbor (kNN) and NFIS classifiers that were trained to diagnose different fault classes. The NFIS diagnoser was shown to significantly outperform the kNN diagnoser, with overall accuracies of 96% vs. 89% respectively. Finally, the PACE implementing the NFIS was used to predict the RUL for different failure modes. The errors of the RUL estimates produced by the PACE-NFIS prognosers ranged from 1.2-11.4 hours with 95% confidence intervals (CI) from 0.67-32.02 hours, which are significantly better than the population based prognoser estimates with errors of ~45 hours and 95% CIs of ~162 hours

Self-tuning routine alarm analysis of vibration signals in steam turbine generators

This paper presents a self-tuning framework for knowledge-based diagnosis of routine alarms in steam turbine generators. The techniques provide a novel basis for initialising and updating time series feature extraction parameters used in the automated decision support of vibration events due to operational transients. The data-driven nature of the algorithms allows for machine specific characteristics of individual turbines to be learned and reasoned about. The paper provides a case study illustrating the routine alarm paradigm and the applicability of systems using such techniques

Target Recognition Using Late-Time Returns from Ultra-Wideband, Short-Pulse Radar

The goal of this research is to develop algorithms that recognize targets by exploiting properties in the late-time resonance induced by ultra-wide band radar signals. A new variant of the Matrix Pencil Method algorithm is developed that identifies complex resonant frequencies present in the scattered signal. Kalman filters are developed to represent the dynamics of the signals scattered from several target types. The Multiple Model Adaptive Estimation algorithm uses the Kalman filters to recognize targets. The target recognition algorithm is shown to be successful in the presence of noise. The performance of the new algorithms is compared to that of previously published algorithms

Smart Bagged Tree-based Classifier optimized by Random Forests (SBT-RF) to Classify Brain- Machine Interface Data

Brain-Computer Interface (BCI) is a new technology that uses electrodes and sensors to connect machines and computers with the human brain to improve a person\u27s mental performance. Also, human intentions and thoughts are analyzed and recognized using BCI, which is then translated into Electroencephalogram (EEG) signals. However, certain brain signals may contain redundant information, making classification ineffective. Therefore, relevant characteristics are essential for enhancing classification performance. . Thus, feature selection has been employed to eliminate redundant data before sorting to reduce computation time. BCI Competition III Dataset Iva was used to investigate the efficacy of the proposed system. A Smart Bagged Tree-based Classifier (SBT-RF) technique is presented to determine the importance of the features for selecting and classifying the data. As a result, SBT-RF is better at improving the mean accuracy of the dataset. It also decreases computation cost and training time and increases prediction speed. Furthermore, fewer features mean fewer electrodes, thus lowering the risk of damage to the brain. The proposed algorithm has the greatest average accuracy of ~98% compared to other relevant algorithms in the literature. SBT-RF is compared to state-of-the-art algorithms based on the following performance metrics: Confusion Matrix, ROC-AUC, F1-Score, Training Time, Prediction speed, and Accuracy

An investigation on automatic systems for fault diagnosis in chemical processes

Plant safety is the most important concern of chemical industries. Process faults can cause economic loses as well as human and environmental damages. Most of the operational faults are normally considered in the process design phase by applying methodologies such as Hazard and Operability Analysis (HAZOP). However, it should be expected that failures may occur in an operating plant. For this reason, it is of paramount importance that plant operators can promptly detect and diagnose such faults in order to take the appropriate corrective actions. In addition, preventive maintenance needs to be considered in order to increase plant safety. Fault diagnosis has been faced with both analytic and data-based models and using several techniques and algorithms. However, there is not yet a general fault diagnosis framework that joins detection and diagnosis of faults, either registered or non-registered in records. Even more, less efforts have been focused to automate and implement the reported approaches in real practice. According to this background, this thesis proposes a general framework for data-driven Fault Detection and Diagnosis (FDD), applicable and susceptible to be automated in any industrial scenario in order to hold the plant safety. Thus, the main requirement for constructing this system is the existence of historical process data. In this sense, promising methods imported from the Machine Learning field are introduced as fault diagnosis methods. The learning algorithms, used as diagnosis methods, have proved to be capable to diagnose not only the modeled faults, but also novel faults. Furthermore, Risk-Based Maintenance (RBM) techniques, widely used in petrochemical industry, are proposed to be applied as part of the preventive maintenance in all industry sectors. The proposed FDD system together with an appropriate preventive maintenance program would represent a potential plant safety program to be implemented. Thus, chapter one presents a general introduction to the thesis topic, as well as the motivation and scope. Then, chapter two reviews the state of the art of the related fields. Fault detection and diagnosis methods found in literature are reviewed. In this sense a taxonomy that joins both Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Process Systems Engineering (PSE) classifications is proposed. The fault diagnosis assessment with performance indices is also reviewed. Moreover, it is exposed the state of the art corresponding to Risk Analysis (RA) as a tool for taking corrective actions to faults and the Maintenance Management for the preventive actions. Finally, the benchmark case studies against which FDD research is commonly validated are examined in this chapter. The second part of the thesis, integrated by chapters three to six, addresses the methods applied during the research work. Chapter three deals with the data pre-processing, chapter four with the feature processing stage and chapter five with the diagnosis algorithms. On the other hand, chapter six introduces the Risk-Based Maintenance techniques for addressing the plant preventive maintenance. The third part includes chapter seven, which constitutes the core of the thesis. In this chapter the proposed general FD system is outlined, divided in three steps: diagnosis model construction, model validation and on-line application. This scheme includes a fault detection module and an Anomaly Detection (AD) methodology for the detection of novel faults. Furthermore, several approaches are derived from this general scheme for continuous and batch processes. The fourth part of the thesis presents the validation of the approaches. Specifically, chapter eight presents the validation of the proposed approaches in continuous processes and chapter nine the validation of batch process approaches. Chapter ten raises the AD methodology in real scaled batch processes. First, the methodology is applied to a lab heat exchanger and then it is applied to a Photo-Fenton pilot plant, which corroborates its potential and success in real practice. Finally, the fifth part, including chapter eleven, is dedicated to stress the final conclusions and the main contributions of the thesis. Also, the scientific production achieved during the research period is listed and prospects on further work are envisaged.La seguridad de planta es el problema más inquietante para las industrias químicas. Un fallo en planta puede causar pérdidas económicas y daños humanos y al medio ambiente. La mayoría de los fallos operacionales son previstos en la etapa de diseño de un proceso mediante la aplicación de técnicas de Análisis de Riesgos y de Operabilidad (HAZOP). Sin embargo, existe la probabilidad de que pueda originarse un fallo en una planta en operación. Por esta razón, es de suma importancia que una planta pueda detectar y diagnosticar fallos en el proceso y tomar las medidas correctoras adecuadas para mitigar los efectos del fallo y evitar lamentables consecuencias. Es entonces también importante el mantenimiento preventivo para aumentar la seguridad y prevenir la ocurrencia de fallos. La diagnosis de fallos ha sido abordada tanto con modelos analíticos como con modelos basados en datos y usando varios tipos de técnicas y algoritmos. Sin embargo, hasta ahora no existe la propuesta de un sistema general de seguridad en planta que combine detección y diagnosis de fallos ya sea registrados o no registrados anteriormente. Menos aún se han reportado metodologías que puedan ser automatizadas e implementadas en la práctica real. Con la finalidad de abordar el problema de la seguridad en plantas químicas, esta tesis propone un sistema general para la detección y diagnosis de fallos capaz de implementarse de forma automatizada en cualquier industria. El principal requerimiento para la construcción de este sistema es la existencia de datos históricos de planta sin previo filtrado. En este sentido, diferentes métodos basados en datos son aplicados como métodos de diagnosis de fallos, principalmente aquellos importados del campo de “Aprendizaje Automático”. Estas técnicas de aprendizaje han resultado ser capaces de detectar y diagnosticar no sólo los fallos modelados o “aprendidos”, sino también nuevos fallos no incluidos en los modelos de diagnosis. Aunado a esto, algunas técnicas de mantenimiento basadas en riesgo (RBM) que son ampliamente usadas en la industria petroquímica, son también propuestas para su aplicación en el resto de sectores industriales como parte del mantenimiento preventivo. En conclusión, se propone implementar en un futuro no lejano un programa general de seguridad de planta que incluya el sistema de detección y diagnosis de fallos propuesto junto con un adecuado programa de mantenimiento preventivo. Desglosando el contenido de la tesis, el capítulo uno presenta una introducción general al tema de esta tesis, así como también la motivación generada para su desarrollo y el alcance delimitado. El capítulo dos expone el estado del arte de las áreas relacionadas al tema de tesis. De esta forma, los métodos de detección y diagnosis de fallos encontrados en la literatura son examinados en este capítulo. Asimismo, se propone una taxonomía de los métodos de diagnosis que unifica las clasificaciones propuestas en el área de Inteligencia Artificial y de Ingeniería de procesos. En consecuencia, se examina también la evaluación del performance de los métodos de diagnosis en la literatura. Además, en este capítulo se revisa y reporta el estado del arte correspondiente al “Análisis de Riesgos” y a la “Gestión del Mantenimiento” como técnicas complementarias para la toma de medidas correctoras y preventivas. Por último se abordan los casos de estudio considerados como puntos de referencia en el campo de investigación para la aplicación del sistema propuesto. La tercera parte incluye el capítulo siete, el cual constituye el corazón de la tesis. En este capítulo se presenta el esquema o sistema general de diagnosis de fallos propuesto. El sistema es dividido en tres partes: construcción de los modelos de diagnosis, validación de los modelos y aplicación on-line. Además incluye un modulo de detección de fallos previo a la diagnosis y una metodología de detección de anomalías para la detección de nuevos fallos. Por último, de este sistema se desglosan varias metodologías para procesos continuos y por lote. La cuarta parte de esta tesis presenta la validación de las metodologías propuestas. Específicamente, el capítulo ocho presenta la validación de las metodologías propuestas para su aplicación en procesos continuos y el capítulo nueve presenta la validación de las metodologías correspondientes a los procesos por lote. El capítulo diez valida la metodología de detección de anomalías en procesos por lote reales. Primero es aplicada a un intercambiador de calor escala laboratorio y después su aplicación es escalada a un proceso Foto-Fenton de planta piloto, lo cual corrobora el potencial y éxito de la metodología en la práctica real. Finalmente, la quinta parte de esta tesis, compuesta por el capítulo once, es dedicada a presentar y reafirmar las conclusiones finales y las principales contribuciones de la tesis. Además, se plantean las líneas de investigación futuras y se lista el trabajo desarrollado y presentado durante el periodo de investigación

Variations on the Kalman filter for enhanced performance monitoring of gas turbine engines

Since their advent in the 1940's, gas turbines have been used in a wide range of land, sea and air applications due to their high power density and reliability. In today's competitive market, gas turbine operators need to optimise the dispatch availability (it i.e., minimise operational issues such as aborted take-offs or in-flight shutdowns) as well as the direct operating costs of their assets. Besides improvements in the design and manufacture processes, proactive maintenance practices, based on the actual condition of the turbine, enable the achievement of these objectives. Generating dependable information about the health condition of the gas turbine is a requisite for a successful implementation of condition-based maintenance. In this thesis, we focus on the assessment of the performance of the thermodynamic cycle, also known as Module Performance Analysis. The purpose of module performance analysis is to detect, isolate and quantify changes in engine module performance, described by so-called health parameters, on the basis of measurements collected along the gas-path of the engine. Generally, the health parameters are correcting factors on the efficiency and the flow capacity of the modules while the measurements are inter-component temperatures, pressures, shaft speeds and fuel flow. Module performance analysis can be cast as an estimation problem that is characterised by a number of difficulties such as non-linearity of the system and noise and bias in the measurements. Moreover the number of health parameters usually exceeds the number of gas-path measurements, making the estimation problem underdetermined. This thesis starts with a survey of the state-of-the-art in module performance analysis. We then propose enhancements to a monitoring tool for steady-state data developed by Dr. P. Dewallef during his thesis at the Turbomachinery Group. Specifically, the improvements concern the fault detection and isolation tasks, respectively handled by a hypothesis testing and a sparse estimator. As a complement, we define metrics for the selection and analysis of sensor--health parameter suites based on the Information Theory. In a second step, we investigate the feasibility and the benefit that could be expected from the processing of data collected during transient operation of a gas turbine. We also discuss the impact of modelling errors on the estimation procedure and propose a solution that makes the health assessment robust with respect to modelling errors. The theoretical developments are evaluated on the basis of simulated test-cases through a series of metrics that gauge the estimation accuracy and the performance of the fault detection and isolation modules

Variations on the Kalman filter for enhanced performance monitoring of gas turbine engines

Since their advent in the 1940's, gas turbines have been used in a wide range of land, sea and air applications due to their high power density and reliability. In today's competitive market, gas turbine operators need to optimise the dispatch availability (it i.e., minimise operational issues such as aborted take-offs or in-flight shutdowns) as well as the direct operating costs of their assets. Besides improvements in the design and manufacture processes, proactive maintenance practices, based on the actual condition of the turbine, enable the achievement of these objectives. Generating dependable information about the health condition of the gas turbine is a requisite for a successful implementation of condition-based maintenance. In this thesis, we focus on the assessment of the performance of the thermodynamic cycle, also known as Module Performance Analysis. The purpose of module performance analysis is to detect, isolate and quantify changes in engine module performance, described by so-called health parameters, on the basis of measurements collected along the gas-path of the engine. Generally, the health parameters are correcting factors on the efficiency and the flow capacity of the modules while the measurements are inter-component temperatures, pressures, shaft speeds and fuel flow. Module performance analysis can be cast as an estimation problem that is characterised by a number of difficulties such as non-linearity of the system and noise and bias in the measurements. Moreover the number of health parameters usually exceeds the number of gas-path measurements, making the estimation problem underdetermined. This thesis starts with a survey of the state-of-the-art in module performance analysis. We then propose enhancements to a monitoring tool for steady-state data developed by Dr. P. Dewallef during his thesis at the Turbomachinery Group. Specifically, the improvements concern the fault detection and isolation tasks, respectively handled by a hypothesis testing and a sparse estimator. As a complement, we define metrics for the selection and analysis of sensor--health parameter suites based on the Information Theory. In a second step, we investigate the feasibility and the benefit that could be expected from the processing of data collected during transient operation of a gas turbine. We also discuss the impact of modelling errors on the estimation procedure and propose a solution that makes the health assessment robust with respect to modelling errors. The theoretical developments are evaluated on the basis of simulated test-cases through a series of metrics that gauge the estimation accuracy and the performance of the fault detection and isolation modules