A hybrid load flow and event driven simulation approach to multi-state system reliability evaluation

Structural complexity of systems, coupled with their multi-state characteristics, renders their reliability and availability evaluation difficult. Notwithstanding the emergence of various techniques dedicated to complex multi-state system analysis, simulation remains the only approach applicable to realistic systems. However, most simulation algorithms are either system specific or limited to simple systems since they require enumerating all possible system states, defining the cut-sets associated with each state and monitoring their occurrence. In addition to being extremely tedious for large complex systems, state enumeration and cut-set definition require a detailed understanding of the system׳s failure mechanism. In this paper, a simple and generally applicable simulation approach, enhanced for multi-state systems of any topology is presented. Here, each component is defined as a Semi-Markov stochastic process and via discrete-event simulation, the operation of the system is mimicked. The principles of flow conservation are invoked to determine flow across the system for every performance level change of its components using the interior-point algorithm. This eliminates the need for cut-set definition and overcomes the limitations of existing techniques. The methodology can also be exploited to account for effects of transmission efficiency and loading restrictions of components on system reliability and performance. The principles and algorithms developed are applied to two numerical examples to demonstrate their applicability

Network recovery after massive failures

This paper addresses the problem of efficiently restoring sufficient resources in a communications network to support the demand of mission critical services after a large scale disruption. We give a formulation of the problem as an MILP and show that it is NP-hard. We propose a polynomial time heuristic, called Iterative Split and Prune (ISP) that decomposes the original problem recursively into smaller problems, until it determines the set of network components to be restored. We performed extensive simulations by varying the topologies, the demand intensity, the number of critical services, and the disruption model. Compared to several greedy approaches ISP performs better in terms of number of repaired components, and does not result in any demand loss. It performs very close to the optimal when the demand is low with respect to the supply network capacities, thanks to the ability of the algorithm to maximize sharing of repaired resources

Availability Allocation of Networked Systems Using Markov Model and Heuristics Algorithm

It is a common practice to allocate the system availability goal to reliability and maintainability goals of components in the early design phase. However, the networked system availability is difficult to be allocated due to its complex topology and multiple down states. To solve these problems, a practical availability allocation method is proposed. Network reliability algebraic methods are used to derive the availability expression of the networked topology on the system level, and Markov model is introduced to determine that on the component level. A heuristic algorithm is proposed to obtain the reliability and maintainability allocation values of components. The principles applied in the AGREE reliability allocation method, proposed by the Advisory Group on Reliability of Electronic Equipment, and failure rate-based maintainability allocation method persist in our allocation method. A series system is used to verify the new algorithm, and the result shows that the allocation based on the heuristic algorithm is quite accurate compared to the traditional one. Moreover, our case study of a signaling system number 7 shows that the proposed allocation method is quite efficient for networked systems

Security Evaluation of Substation Network Architectures

In recent years, security of industrial control systems has been the main research focus due to the potential cyber-attacks that can impact the physical operations. As a result of these risks, there has been an urgent need to establish a stronger security protection against these threats. Conventional firewalls with stateful rules can be implemented in the critical cyberinfrastructure environment which might require constant updates. Despite the ongoing effort to maintain the rules, the protection mechanism does not restrict malicious data flows and it poses the greater risk of potential intrusion occurrence. The contributions of this thesis are motivated by the aforementioned issues which include a systematic investigation of attack-related scenarios within a substation network in a reliable sense. The proposed work is two-fold: (i) system architecture evaluation and (ii) construction of attack tree for a substation network. Cyber-system reliability remains one of the important factors in determining the system bottleneck for investment planning and maintenance. It determines the longevity of the system operational period with or without any disruption. First, a complete enumeration of existing implementation is exhaustively identified with existing communication architectures (bidirectional) and new ones with strictly unidirectional. A detailed modeling of the extended 10 system architectures has been evaluated. Next, attack tree modeling for potential substation threats is formulated. This quantifies the potential risks for possible attack scenarios within a network or from the external networks. The analytical models proposed in this thesis can serve as a fundamental development that can be further researched

Performance Evaluation of Stochastic Multi-Echelon Inventory Systems: A Survey

Globalization, product proliferation, and fast product innovation have significantly increased the complexities of supply chains in many industries. One of the most important advancements of supply chain management in recent years is the development of models and methodologies for controlling inventory in general supply networks under uncertainty and their widefspread applications to industry. These developments are based on three generic methods: the queueing-inventory method, the lead-time demand method and the flow-unit method. In this paper, we compare and contrast these methods by discussing their strengths and weaknesses, their differences and connections, and showing how to apply them systematically to characterize and evaluate various supply networks with different supply processes, inventory policies, and demand processes. Our objective is to forge links among research strands on different methods and various network topologies so as to develop unified methodologies.Masdar Institute of Science and TechnologyNational Science Foundation (U.S.) (NSF Contract CMMI-0758069)National Science Foundation (U.S.) (Career Award CMMI-0747779)Bayer Business ServicesSAP A

Design and Implementation of a True Decentralized Autonomous Control Architecture for Microgrids

Microgrids can serve as an integral part of the future power distribution systems. Most microgrids are currently managed by centralized controllers. There are two major concerns associated with the centralized controllers. One is that the single controller can become performance and reliability bottleneck for the entire system and its failure can bring the entire system down. The second concern is the communication delays that can degrade the system performance. As a solution, a true decentralized control architecture for microgrids is developed and presented. Distributing the control functions to local agents decreases the possibility of network congestion, and leads to the mitigation of long distance transmission of critical commands. Decentralization will also enhance the reliability of the system since the single point of failure is eliminated. In the proposed architecture, primary and secondary microgrid controls layers are combined into one physical layer. Tertiary control is performed by the controller located at the grid point of connection. Each decentralized controller is responsible of multicasting its status and local measurements, creating a general awareness of the microgrid status among all decentralized controllers. The proof-of concept implementation provides a practical evidence of the successful mitigation of the drawback of control command transmission over the network. A Failure Management Unit comprises failure detection mechanisms and a recovery algorithm is proposed and applied to a microgrid case study. Coordination between controllers during the recovery period requires low-bandwidth communications, which has no significant overhead on the communication infrastructure. The proof-of-concept of the true decentralization of microgrid control architecture is implemented using Hardware-in-the-Loop platform. The test results show a robust detection and recovery outcome during a system failure. System test results show the robustness of the proposed architecture for microgrid energy management and control scenarios

Reverse engineering of drug induced DNA damage response signalling pathway reveals dual outcomes of ATM kinase inhibition

The DNA Damage Response (DDR) pathway represents a signalling mechanism that is activated in eukaryotic cells following DNA damage and comprises of proteins involved in DNA damage detection, DNA repair, cell cycle arrest and apoptosis. This pathway consists of an intricate network of signalling interactions driving the cellular ability to recognise DNA damage and recruit specialised proteins to take decisions between DNA repair or apoptosis. ATM and ATR are central components of the DDR pathway. The activities of these kinases are vital in DNA damage induced phosphorylational induction of DDR substrates. Here, firstly we have experimentally determined DDR signalling network surrounding the ATM/ATR pathway induced following double stranded DNA damage by monitoring and quantifying time dependent inductions of their phosphorylated forms and their key substrates. We next involved an automated inference of unsupervised predictive models of time series data to generate in silico (molecular) interaction maps. We characterized the complex signalling network through system analysis and gradual utilisation of small time series measurements of key substrates through a novel network inference algorithm. Furthermore, we demonstrate an application of an assumption-free reverse engineering of the intricate signalling network of the activated ATM/ATR pathway. We next studied the consequences of such drug induced inductions as well as of time dependent ATM kinase inhibition on cell survival through further biological experiments. Intermediate and temporal modelling outcomes revealed the distinct signaling profile associated with ATM kinase activity and inhibition and explained the underlying signalling mechanism for dual ATM functionality in cytotoxic and cytoprotective pathways