The Design and Implementation of a Bayesian CAD Modeler for Robotic Applications

We present a Bayesian CAD modeler for robotic applications. We address the problem of taking into account the propagation of geometric uncertainties when solving inverse geometric problems. The proposed method may be seen as a generalization of constraint-based approaches in which we explicitly model geometric uncertainties. Using our methodology, a geometric constraint is expressed as a probability distribution on the system parameters and the sensor measurements, instead of a simple equality or inequality. To solve geometric problems in this framework, we propose an original resolution method able to adapt to problem complexity. Using two examples, we show how to apply our approach by providing simulation results using our modeler

A Robotic CAD System using a Bayesian Framework

We present in this paper a Bayesian CAD system for robotic applications. We address the problem of the propagation of geometric uncertainties and how esian CAD system for robotic applications. We address the problem of the propagation of geometric uncertainties and how to take this propagation into account when solving inverse problems. We describe the methodology we use to represent and handle uncertainties using probability distributions on the system's parameters and sensor measurements. It may be seen as a generalization of constraint-based approaches where we express a constraint as a probability distribution instead of a simple equality or inequality. Appropriate numerical algorithms used to apply this methodology are also described. Using an example, we show how to apply our approach by providing simulation results using our CAD system

Parameter Solving of Probability Integral Method Based on Improved Genetic Algorithm

The probability integral method (PIM) is the main method for mining subsidence prediction in China. Parameter errors and model errors are the main sources of error in the application of the probability integral method. There are many surface subsidence problems caused by coal mining. In order to improve the accuracy and operating efficiency of the genetic algorithm (GA) in calculating the parameters of the PIM, this paper proposes an improved genetic algorithm (IGA) by adding the dynamic crossover and mutation rate to the traditional GA. Made improvements to the shortcomings of random crossover and mutation rate of all individuals in the population in the original algorithm.Through simulation experiments, it is confirmed that the IGA improves the calculation efficiency and accuracy of the traditional GA under the same conditions.The IGA has higher accuracy, reliability, resistance to gross interference and resistance to missing observation points. This method is obviously superior to direct inversion and conventional optimization inversion algorithms, and effectively avoids the dependence on the initial value of the probabilistic integral method parameter

A robust statistical estimation of the basic parameters of single stellar populations. I. Method

The colour-magnitude diagrams of resolved single stellar populations, such as open and globular clusters, have provided the best natural laboratories to test stellar evolution theory. Whilst a variety of techniques have been used to infer the basic properties of these simple populations, systematic uncertainties arise from the purely geometrical degeneracy produced by the similar shape of isochrones of different ages and metallicities. Here we present an objective and robust statistical technique which lifts this degeneracy to a great extent through the use of a key observable: the number of stars along the isochrone. Through extensive Monte Carlo simulations we show that, for instance, we can infer the four main parameters (age, metallicity, distance and reddening) in an objective way, along with robust confidence intervals and their full covariance matrix. We show that systematic uncertainties due to field contamination, unresolved binaries, initial or present-day stellar mass function are either negligible or well under control. This technique provides, for the first time, a proper way to infer with unprecedented accuracy the fundamental properties of simple stellar populations, in an easy-to-implement algorithm.Comment: 17 pages, 12 figures, MNRAS, in pres

Solving, Estimating and Selecting Nonlinear Dynamic Economic Models without the Curse of Dimensionality

A welfare analysis of a risky policy is impossible within a linear or linearized model and its certainty equivalence property. The presented algorithms are designed as a toolbox for a general model class. The computational challenges are considerable and I concentrate on the numerics and statistics for a simple model of dynamic consumption and labor choice. I calculate the optimal policy and estimate the posterior density of structural parameters and the marginal likelihood within a nonlinear state space model. My approach is even in an interpreted language twenty time faster than the only alternative compiled approach. The model is estimated on simulated data in order to test the routines against known true parameters. The policy function is approximated by Smolyak Chebyshev polynomials and the rational expectation integral by Smolyak Gaussian quadrature. The Smolyak operator is used to extend univariate approximation and integration operators to many dimensions. It reduces the curse of dimensionality from exponential to polynomial growth. The likelihood integrals are evaluated by a Gaussian quadrature and Gaussian quadrature particle filter. The bootstrap or sequential importance resampling particle filter is used as an accuracy benchmark. The posterior is estimated by the Gaussian filter and a Metropolis- Hastings algorithm. I propose a genetic extension of the standard Metropolis-Hastings algorithm by parallel random walk sequences. This improves the robustness of start values and the global maximization properties. Moreover it simplifies a cluster implementation and the random walk variances decision is reduced to only two parameters so that almost no trial sequences are needed. Finally the marginal likelihood is calculated as a criterion for nonnested and quasi-true models in order to select between the nonlinear estimates and a first order perturbation solution combined with the Kalman filter.stochastic dynamic general equilibrium model, Chebyshev polynomials, Smolyak operator, nonlinear state space filter, Curse of Dimensionality, posterior of structural parameters, marginal likelihood

Multi-scale uncertainty quantification in geostatistical seismic inversion

Geostatistical seismic inversion is commonly used to infer the spatial distribution of the subsurface petro-elastic properties by perturbing the model parameter space through iterative stochastic sequential simulations/co-simulations. The spatial uncertainty of the inferred petro-elastic properties is represented with the updated a posteriori variance from an ensemble of the simulated realizations. Within this setting, the large-scale geological (metaparameters) used to generate the petro-elastic realizations, such as the spatial correlation model and the global a priori distribution of the properties of interest, are assumed to be known and stationary for the entire inversion domain. This assumption leads to underestimation of the uncertainty associated with the inverted models. We propose a practical framework to quantify uncertainty of the large-scale geological parameters in seismic inversion. The framework couples geostatistical seismic inversion with a stochastic adaptive sampling and Bayesian inference of the metaparameters to provide a more accurate and realistic prediction of uncertainty not restricted by heavy assumptions on large-scale geological parameters. The proposed framework is illustrated with both synthetic and real case studies. The results show the ability retrieve more reliable acoustic impedance models with a more adequate uncertainty spread when compared with conventional geostatistical seismic inversion techniques. The proposed approach separately account for geological uncertainty at large-scale (metaparameters) and local scale (trace-by-trace inversion)

Neural network determination of parton distributions: the nonsinglet case

We provide a determination of the isotriplet quark distribution from available deep--inelastic data using neural networks. We give a general introduction to the neural network approach to parton distributions, which provides a solution to the problem of constructing a faithful and unbiased probability distribution of parton densities based on available experimental information. We discuss in detail the techniques which are necessary in order to construct a Monte Carlo representation of the data, to construct and evolve neural parton distributions, and to train them in such a way that the correct statistical features of the data are reproduced. We present the results of the application of this method to the determination of the nonsinglet quark distribution up to next--to--next--to--leading order, and compare them with those obtained using other approaches.Comment: 46 pages, 18 figures, LaTeX with JHEP3 clas

Infinite Latent Feature Selection: A Probabilistic Latent Graph-Based Ranking Approach

Feature selection is playing an increasingly significant role with respect to many computer vision applications spanning from object recognition to visual object tracking. However, most of the recent solutions in feature selection are not robust across different and heterogeneous set of data. In this paper, we address this issue proposing a robust probabilistic latent graph-based feature selection algorithm that performs the ranking step while considering all the possible subsets of features, as paths on a graph, bypassing the combinatorial problem analytically. An appealing characteristic of the approach is that it aims to discover an abstraction behind low-level sensory data, that is, relevancy. Relevancy is modelled as a latent variable in a PLSA-inspired generative process that allows the investigation of the importance of a feature when injected into an arbitrary set of cues. The proposed method has been tested on ten diverse benchmarks, and compared against eleven state of the art feature selection methods. Results show that the proposed approach attains the highest performance levels across many different scenarios and difficulties, thereby confirming its strong robustness while setting a new state of the art in feature selection domain.Comment: Accepted at the IEEE International Conference on Computer Vision (ICCV), 2017, Venice. Preprint cop

Intelligent flight control systems

The capabilities of flight control systems can be enhanced by designing them to emulate functions of natural intelligence. Intelligent control functions fall in three categories. Declarative actions involve decision-making, providing models for system monitoring, goal planning, and system/scenario identification. Procedural actions concern skilled behavior and have parallels in guidance, navigation, and adaptation. Reflexive actions are spontaneous, inner-loop responses for control and estimation. Intelligent flight control systems learn knowledge of the aircraft and its mission and adapt to changes in the flight environment. Cognitive models form an efficient basis for integrating 'outer-loop/inner-loop' control functions and for developing robust parallel-processing algorithms