An empirical classification-based framework for the safety criticality assessment of energy production systems, in presence of inconsistent data

The technical problem addressed in the present paper is the assessment of the safety criticality of energy production systems. An empirical classification model is developed, based on the Majority Rule Sorting method, to evaluate the class of criticality of the plant/system of interest, with respect to safety. The model is built on the basis of a (limited-size) set of data representing the characteristics of a number of plants and their corresponding criticality classes, as assigned by experts. The construction of the classification model may raise two issues. First, the classification examples provided by the experts may contain contradictions: a validation of the consistency of the considered dataset is, thus, required. Second, uncertainty affects the process: a quantitative assessment of the performance of the classification model is, thus, in order, in terms of accuracy and confidence in the class assignments. In this paper, two approaches are proposed to tackle the first issue: the inconsistencies in the data examples are “resolved” by deleting or relaxing, respectively, some constraints in the model construction process. Three methods are proposed to address the second issue: (i) a model retrieval-based approach, (ii) the Bootstrap method and (iii) the cross-validation technique. Numerical analyses are presented with reference to an artificial case study regarding the classification of Nuclear Power Plants

La prise de décision et la modélisation d’incertitude pour l’analyse multi-critère des systèmes complexes énergétiques

This Ph. D. work addresses the vulnerability analysis of safety-critical systems (e.g., nuclear power plants) within a framework that combines the disciplines of risk analysis and multi-criteria decision-making. The scientific contribution follows four directions: (i) a quantitative hierarchical model is developed to characterize the susceptibility of safety-critical systems to multiple types of hazard, within the needed `all-hazard' view of the problem currently emerging in the risk analysis field; (ii) the quantitative assessment of vulnerability is tackled by an empirical classification framework: to this aim, a model, relying on the Majority Rule Sorting (MR-Sort) Method, typically used in the decision analysis field, is built on the basis of a (limited-size) set of data representing (a priori-known) vulnerability classification examples; (iii) three different approaches (namely, a model-retrieval-based method, the Bootstrap method and the leave-one-out cross-validation technique) are developed and applied to provide a quantitative assessment of the performance of the classification model (in terms of accuracy and confidence in the assignments), accounting for the uncertainty introduced into the analysis by the empirical construction of the vulnerability model; (iv) on the basis of the models developed, an inverse classification problem is solved to identify a set of protective actions which effectively reduce the level of vulnerability of the critical system under consideration. Two approaches are developed to this aim: the former is based on a novel sensitivity indicator, the latter on optimization.Applications on fictitious and real case studies in the nuclear power plant risk field demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed methodology.Ce travail de thèse doctorale traite l'analyse de la vulnérabilité des systèmes critiques pour la sécurité (par exemple, les centrales nucléaires) dans un cadre qui combine les disciplines de l'analyse des risques et de la prise de décision de multi-critères.La contribution scientifique suit quatre directions: (i) un modèle hiérarchique et quantitative est développé pour caractériser la susceptibilité des systèmes critiques pour la sécurité à plusieurs types de danger, en ayant la vue de `tous risques' sur le problème actuellement émergeant dans le domaine de l'analyse des risques; (ii) l'évaluation quantitative de la vulnérabilité est abordé par un cadre de classification empirique: à cette fin, un modèle, en se fondant sur la Majority Rule Sorting (MR-Sort) Méthode, généralement utilisés dans le domaine de la prise de décision, est construit sur la base d'un ensemble de données (en taille limitée) représentant (a priori connu) des exemples de classification de vulnérabilité; (iii) trois approches différentes (à savoir, une model-retrieval-based méthode, la méthode Bootstrap et la technique de validation croisée leave-one-out) sont élaborées et appliquées pour fournir une évaluation quantitative de la performance du modèle de classification (en termes de précision et de confiance dans les classifications), ce qui représente l'incertitude introduite dans l'analyse par la construction empirique du modèle de la vulnérabilité; (iv) basé sur des modèles développés, un problème de classification inverse est résolu à identifier un ensemble de mesures de protection qui réduisent efficacement le niveau de vulnérabilité du système critique à l’étude. Deux approches sont développées dans cet objectif: le premier est basé sur un nouvel indicateur de sensibilité, ce dernier sur l'optimisation.Les applications sur des études de cas fictifs et réels dans le domaine des risques de centrales nucléaires démontrent l'efficacité de la méthode proposée

Development of a framework for enhancing resilience in the UK food and drink manufacturing sector

This thesis presents research undertaken to understand and enhance resilience in the UK Food and Drink Manufacturing Sector. It focuses on the development of a conceptual framework which establishes how specific vulnerabilities link to individual mitigation strategies available to the sector and the impact of such strategies on wider sustainability. The research in this thesis is divided into four main parts. The first part consists of three complementary review chapters exploring resilience as a theoretical concept, resilience in the UK Food and Drink Manufacturing sector and existing methods used to study and/or enhance resilience. The second part of the thesis begins by describing how the pragmatic philosophy and abductive stance underpinning the research, in combination with review findings, helped to determine the research techniques used in this work, which included the systematic review process and the mixed methods case study. Next, the research facilitating a novel conceptual framework describing how real-time vulnerabilities can be identified and mitigated in a way that is complimentary to the wider sustainability of the organisation is discussed. [Continues.

Consideration of Abiotic Natural Resources in Life Cycle Assessments

The book contains a collection of articles dealing with how the extraction of mineral resources can be considered in environmental analyses such as Life Cycle Assessment (LCA). The consumption of resources, e.g., metals, is increasing strongly worldwide. This is associated with more energy use; environmental pollution; and social, economic, and political consequences. An increase is also expected for the coming decades. At the same time, modern products and technologies, even in the field of renewable energies, require a large number of critical raw materials. A crucial question here is the exhaustibility of natural resources. What is the relevance of resource depletion today? Must a geological shortage of metals be expected in the foreseeable future? How could such a thing be considered in the LCA of products and weighed against other environmental aspects? The articles in question have been written over the past three years by leading experts in both geology and environmental sciences and show the breadth of the controversial discussion

Bayesian inference and failure analysis for risk assessment in quality engineering

This thesis was submitted for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy and awarded by Brunel University LondonFailure is the state of not achieving a desired or intended goal. Failure analysis planning in the context of risk assessment is an approach that helps to reduce total cost, increase production capacity, and produce higher-quality products. One of the most common issues that businesses confront are defective products. This issue not only results in monetary loss, but also in a loss of status. Companies must improve their production quality and reduce the quantity of faulty products in order to continue operating in a healthy and profitable manner in today’s very competitive environment. On the other hand, there is the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, which has thrown the world’s natural order into disarray, and has been designated a Public Health Emergency of International Concern by the World Health Organization. The demand for quality control is rapidly increasing. Failure analysis is thus an useful tool for identifying common failures, their likely causes, and their impact on the health system, as well as plotting strategies to limit COVID-19 transmission. It is now more vital than ever to enhance failure analysis methods. The traditional FMEA (Failure mode and effects analysis) is one of the most widely used approaches for identifying and classifying failure modes (FMs) and failure causes (FCs). It is a risk analysis tool for coping with possible failures and is widely used in the reliability engineering, safety engineering and quality engineering. To prioritize risks of different failure modes, FMEA uses the risk priority number (RPN), which is the product of three risk measures: severity (S), occurrence (O) and detection (D). Traditional FMEA, on the other hand, has drawbacks, such as the inability to cope with uncertain failure data, such as expert subjective evaluations, the failure events’ conditionality, RPN has a high degree of subjectivity, comparing various RPNs is challenging, potential errors may be ignored in the conventional FMEA process, etc. To overcome these limitations, I present an integrated Bayesian approach to FMEA in this thesis. In this proposed approach, I worked with experts in quality engineering and used Bayesian inference to estimate the FMEA risk parameters: S, O and D. The proposed approach is intended to become more practical and less subjective as more data is added. Bayesian statistics is a statistical theory that is based on the Bayesian interpretation of probability, which states that probability expresses a degree of belief or information (knowledge) about an event. Bayesian statistics addresses the issues with uncertainties found in frequentist statistics, such as the distribution of contributing factors, the implications of using specific distributions and specifies that there is some prior probability. A prior can be derived from previous information, such as previous experiments, but it can also be derived from a trained subject-matter expert’s purely subjective assessment. Frequentist statistics (also known as classical statistics) has several limitations, including a lack of uncertainty information in predictions, no built-in regularisation, and no consideration of prior knowledge. Due to the availability of powerful computers and new algorithms, Bayesian methods have seen increased use within statistics in the twenty-first century, and this thesis highlights the effective use of Bayesian analyses to address the shortcomings of the current FMEA with the revamped Bayesian FMEA. As a demonstration of the approach, three case studies are presented. The first case study is a Bayesian risk assessment approach of the modified SEIR (susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered) model for the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 with an exponentially distributed. The effective reproduction number is estimated based on laboratory-confirmed cases and death data using Bayesian inference and analyse the impact of the community spread of COVID-19 across the United Kingdom. The value of effective reproduction number models the average number of infections caused by a case of an infectious disease in a population that includes not only susceptible people. The FMEA is then applied to evaluate the effectiveness of the action measures taken to manage the COVID-19 pandemic. In the FMEA, the focus was on COVID-19 infections and therefore the failure mode is taken as positive cases. The model is applied to COVID-19 data showing the effectiveness of interventions adopted to control the epidemic by reducing the effective reproduction number of COVID-19. The risk measures were estimated from the case fatality rate (S), the posterior median of the effective reproduction number (O) and the current corrective measures used by government policies (D). The second case study is a Bayesian risk assessment of a coordinate measuring machine (CMM) process using failure mode, effects and criticality analysis (FMECA) and an augmented form error model. The form error is defined as the deviation of a manufactured part from its design or ideal shape, and it is a key characteristic to evaluate in quality engineering and manufacturing. The form error is presented as a probabilistic model using symmetric unimodal distributions. Bayesian inference is then used to identify influence factors associated with the measurement process due to form error, environmental, human and random effects. A risk assessment is then performed by combining Bayesian inference, FMECA and conformity testing, to quantify and minimise the risk of wrong decisions. In the FMECA, the focus was on CMM measurement process and I identified four major FMs that can occur: probe, mechanical, environmental and measurement performance failure. Eleven FCs were also observed, each of which was linked to one of the four FMs. The risk measures were estimated from the posterior probability of failure causes associated with the CMM measurement process (O), the severity of a specific consumer’s risk (S) and the detectability of failures from the posterior standard deviation of the form error model (D). The third case study is a Bayesian risk assessment of a CMM measurement process using an autoregressive (AR) form error model and a combined Fault tree analysis (FTA) and FMEA approach to predict significant failure modes and causes. The main idea is to estimate and predict the form error based on CMM data using Gibbs sampling and analyse the impact of the CMM measurement process on product conformity testing. The FTA is used to compare the actual and predicted form error data from the Bayesian AR plot to determine the likelihood of the CMM measurement process failing using binary data. The acquired binary data is then classified into four states (true positive, true negative, false positive, and false negative) using a confusion matrix, which is subsequently utilized to calculate key classification measures (i.e., error rate, prediction rate, prevalence rate, sensitivity rate, etc). The classification measures were then used to assess the FMEA risk measures S, O, and D, which were critical for determining the RPN and making decisions. Analytical and numerical methods are used in all case studies to highlight the practical implications of our findings and are meant to be practical without complex computing. The proposed methodologies can find applications in numerous disciplines and wide quality engineering

Risk Analysis for Smart Cities Urban Planners: Safety and Security in Public Spaces

Christopher Alexander in his famous writings "The Timeless Way of Building" and "A pattern language" defined a formal language for the description of a city. Alexander developed a generative grammar able to formally describe complex and articulated concepts of architecture and urban planning to define a common language that would facilitate both the participation of ordinary citizens and the collaboration between professionals in architectural and urban planning. In this research, a similar approach has been applied to let two domains communicate although they are very far in terms of lexicon, methodologies and objectives. These domains are urban planning, urban design and architecture, seen as the first domain both in terms of time and in terms of completeness of vision, and the one relating to the world of engineering, made by innumerable disciplines. In practice, there is a domain that defines the requirements and the overall vision (the first) and a domain (the second) which implements them with real infrastructures and systems. To put these two worlds seamlessly into communication, allowing the concepts of the first world to be translated into those of the second, Christopher Alexander’s idea has been followed by defining a common language. By applying Essence, the software engineering formal descriptive theory, using its customization rules, to the concept of a Smart City, a common language to completely trace the requirements at all levels has been defined. Since the focus was on risk analysis for safety and security in public spaces, existing risk models have been considered, evidencing a further gap also within the engineering world itself. Depending on the area being considered, risk management models have different and siloed approaches which ignore the interactions of one type of risk with the others. To allow effective communication between the two domains and within the engineering domain, a unified risk analysis framework has been developed. Then a framework (an ontology) capable of describing all the elements of a Smart City has been developed and combined with the common language to trace the requirements. Following the philosophy of the Vienna Circle, a creative process called Aufbau has then been defined to allow the generation of a detailed description of the Smart City, at any level, using the common language and the ontology above defined. Then, the risk analysis methodology has been applied to the city model produced by Aufbau. The research developed tools to apply such results to the entire life cycle of the Smart City. With these tools, it is possible to understand how much a given architectural, urban planning or urban design requirement is operational at a given moment. In this way, the narration can accurately describe how much the initial requirements set by architects, planners and urban designers and, above all, the values required by stakeholders, are satisfied, at any time. The impact of this research on urban planning is the ability to create a single model between the two worlds, leaving everyone free to express creativity and expertise in the appropriate forms but, at the same time, allowing both to fill the communication gap existing today. This new way of planning requires adequate IT tools and takes the form, from the engineering side, of harmonization of techniques already in use and greater clarity of objectives. On the side of architecture, urban planning and urban design, it is instead a powerful decision support tool, both in the planning and operational phases. This decision support tool for Urban Planning, based on the research results, is the starting point for the development of a meta-heuristic process using an evolutionary approach. Consequently, risk management, from Architecture/Urban Planning/Urban Design up to Engineering, in any phase of the Smart City’s life cycle, is seen as an “organism” that evolves.Christopher Alexander nei suoi famosi scritti "The Timeless Way of Building" e "A pattern language" ha definito un linguaggio formale per la descrizione di una città, sviluppando una grammatica in grado di descrivere formalmente concetti complessi e articolati di architettura e urbanistica, definendo un linguaggio comune per facilitare la partecipazione dei comuni cittadini e la collaborazione tra professionisti. In questa ricerca, un approccio simile è stato applicato per far dialogare due domini sebbene siano molto distanti in termini di lessico, metodologie e obiettivi. Essi sono l'urbanistica, l'urban design e l'architettura, visti come primo dominio sia in termini di tempo che di completezza di visione, e quello del mondo dell'ingegneria, con numerose discipline. In pratica, esiste un dominio che definisce i requisiti e la visione d'insieme (il primo) e un dominio (il secondo) che li implementa con infrastrutture e sistemi reali. Per metterli in perfetta comunicazione, permettendo di tradurre i concetti del primo in quelli del secondo, si è seguita l'idea di Alexander definendo un linguaggio. Applicando Essence, la teoria descrittiva formale dell'ingegneria del software al concetto di Smart City, è stato definito un linguaggio comune per tracciarne i requisiti a tutti i livelli. Essendo il focus l'analisi dei rischi per la sicurezza negli spazi pubblici, sono stati considerati i modelli di rischio esistenti, evidenziando un'ulteriore lacuna anche all'interno del mondo dell'ingegneria stessa. A seconda dell'area considerata, i modelli di gestione del rischio hanno approcci diversi e isolati che ignorano le interazioni di un tipo di rischio con gli altri. Per consentire una comunicazione efficace tra i due domini e all'interno del dominio dell'ingegneria, è stato sviluppato un quadro di analisi del rischio unificato. Quindi è stato sviluppato un framework (un'ontologia) in grado di descrivere tutti gli elementi di una Smart City e combinato con il linguaggio comune per tracciarne i requisiti. Seguendo la filosofia del Circolo di Vienna, è stato poi definito un processo creativo chiamato Aufbau per consentire la generazione di una descrizione dettagliata della Smart City, a qualsiasi livello, utilizzando il linguaggio comune e l'ontologia sopra definita. Infine, la metodologia dell'analisi del rischio è stata applicata al modello di città prodotto da Aufbau. La ricerca ha sviluppato strumenti per applicare tali risultati all'intero ciclo di vita della Smart City. Con questi strumenti è possibile capire quanto una data esigenza architettonica, urbanistica o urbanistica sia operativa in un dato momento. In questo modo, la narrazione può descrivere con precisione quanto i requisiti iniziali posti da architetti, pianificatori e urbanisti e, soprattutto, i valori richiesti dagli stakeholder, siano soddisfatti, in ogni momento. L'impatto di questa ricerca sull'urbanistica è la capacità di creare un modello unico tra i due mondi, lasciando ognuno libero di esprimere creatività e competenza nelle forme appropriate ma, allo stesso tempo, permettendo ad entrambi di colmare il gap comunicativo oggi esistente. Questo nuovo modo di progettare richiede strumenti informatici adeguati e si concretizza, dal lato ingegneristico, in un'armonizzazione delle tecniche già in uso e in una maggiore chiarezza degli obiettivi. Sul versante dell'architettura, dell'urbanistica e del disegno urbano, è invece un potente strumento di supporto alle decisioni, sia in fase progettuale che operativa. Questo strumento di supporto alle decisioni per la pianificazione urbana, basato sui risultati della ricerca, è il punto di partenza per lo sviluppo di un processo meta-euristico utilizzando un approccio evolutivo