11,003 research outputs found
Estimating Discrete Markov Models From Various Incomplete Data Schemes
The parameters of a discrete stationary Markov model are transition
probabilities between states. Traditionally, data consist in sequences of
observed states for a given number of individuals over the whole observation
period. In such a case, the estimation of transition probabilities is
straightforwardly made by counting one-step moves from a given state to
another. In many real-life problems, however, the inference is much more
difficult as state sequences are not fully observed, namely the state of each
individual is known only for some given values of the time variable. A review
of the problem is given, focusing on Monte Carlo Markov Chain (MCMC) algorithms
to perform Bayesian inference and evaluate posterior distributions of the
transition probabilities in this missing-data framework. Leaning on the
dependence between the rows of the transition matrix, an adaptive MCMC
mechanism accelerating the classical Metropolis-Hastings algorithm is then
proposed and empirically studied.Comment: 26 pages - preprint accepted in 20th February 2012 for publication in
Computational Statistics and Data Analysis (please cite the journal's paper
Bayesian Optimization for Adaptive MCMC
This paper proposes a new randomized strategy for adaptive MCMC using
Bayesian optimization. This approach applies to non-differentiable objective
functions and trades off exploration and exploitation to reduce the number of
potentially costly objective function evaluations. We demonstrate the strategy
in the complex setting of sampling from constrained, discrete and densely
connected probabilistic graphical models where, for each variation of the
problem, one needs to adjust the parameters of the proposal mechanism
automatically to ensure efficient mixing of the Markov chains.Comment: This paper contains 12 pages and 6 figures. A similar version of this
paper has been submitted to AISTATS 2012 and is currently under revie
Compressive sensing adaptation for polynomial chaos expansions
Basis adaptation in Homogeneous Chaos spaces rely on a suitable rotation of
the underlying Gaussian germ. Several rotations have been proposed in the
literature resulting in adaptations with different convergence properties. In
this paper we present a new adaptation mechanism that builds on compressive
sensing algorithms, resulting in a reduced polynomial chaos approximation with
optimal sparsity. The developed adaptation algorithm consists of a two-step
optimization procedure that computes the optimal coefficients and the input
projection matrix of a low dimensional chaos expansion with respect to an
optimally rotated basis. We demonstrate the attractive features of our
algorithm through several numerical examples including the application on
Large-Eddy Simulation (LES) calculations of turbulent combustion in a HIFiRE
scramjet engine.Comment: Submitted to Journal of Computational Physic
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On optimal designs for clinical trials: An updated review
Optimization of clinical trial designs can help investigators achieve higher qualityresults for the given resource constraints. The present paper gives an overviewof optimal designs for various important problems that arise in different stages ofclinical drug development, including phase I dose–toxicity studies; phase I/II studiesthat consider early efficacy and toxicity outcomes simultaneously; phase IIdose–response studies driven by multiple comparisons (MCP), modeling techniques(Mod), or their combination (MCP–Mod); phase III randomized controlled multiarmmulti-objective clinical trials to test difference among several treatment groups;and population pharmacokinetics–pharmacodynamics experiments. We find thatmodern literature is very rich with optimal design methodologies that can be utilizedby clinical researchers to improve efficiency of drug development
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