Neuro-fuzzy knowledge processing in intelligent learning environments for improved student diagnosis

In this paper, a neural network implementation for a fuzzy logic-based model of the diagnostic process is proposed as a means to achieve accurate student diagnosis and updates of the student model in Intelligent Learning Environments. The neuro-fuzzy synergy allows the diagnostic model to some extent "imitate" teachers in diagnosing students' characteristics, and equips the intelligent learning environment with reasoning capabilities that can be further used to drive pedagogical decisions depending on the student learning style. The neuro-fuzzy implementation helps to encode both structured and non-structured teachers' knowledge: when teachers' reasoning is available and well defined, it can be encoded in the form of fuzzy rules; when teachers' reasoning is not well defined but is available through practical examples illustrating their experience, then the networks can be trained to represent this experience. The proposed approach has been tested in diagnosing aspects of student's learning style in a discovery-learning environment that aims to help students to construct the concepts of vectors in physics and mathematics. The diagnosis outcomes of the model have been compared against the recommendations of a group of five experienced teachers, and the results produced by two alternative soft computing methods. The results of our pilot study show that the neuro-fuzzy model successfully manages the inherent uncertainty of the diagnostic process; especially for marginal cases, i.e. where it is very difficult, even for human tutors, to diagnose and accurately evaluate students by directly synthesizing subjective and, some times, conflicting judgments

Democracy and Economic Development: a Fuzzy Classification Approach

The aim of this work is to (1) analyse whether countries differ on political indicators (democracy, rule of law, government effectiveness and corruption) and (2) study whether countries with different political profiles are associated with different levels of economic, human development and gender-related development indicators. Using a fuzzy classification approach (fuzzy k-means algorithm), we propose a typology of 124 countries based on 10 political variables. Six segments are identified; these political groups implicate the access to different levels of economic and human development. In this study evidence of a positive but not perfect relationship between democracy and economic and human development is observed, thus presenting new insights for the understanding of the heterogeneity of behaviors relatively to political indicators.Democracy, Economic Development, Fuzzy k-means

Feature weighting techniques for CBR in software effort estimation studies: A review and empirical evaluation

Context : Software effort estimation is one of the most important activities in the software development process. Unfortunately, estimates are often substantially wrong. Numerous estimation methods have been proposed including Case-based Reasoning (CBR). In order to improve CBR estimation accuracy, many researchers have proposed feature weighting techniques (FWT). Objective: Our purpose is to systematically review the empirical evidence to determine whether FWT leads to improved predictions. In addition we evaluate these techniques from the perspectives of (i) approach (ii) strengths and weaknesses (iii) performance and (iv) experimental evaluation approach including the data sets used. Method: We conducted a systematic literature review of published, refereed primary studies on FWT (2000-2014). Results: We identified 19 relevant primary studies. These reported a range of different techniques. 17 out of 19 make benchmark comparisons with standard CBR and 16 out of 17 studies report improved accuracy. Using a one-sample sign test this positive impact is significant (p = 0:0003). Conclusion: The actionable conclusion from this study is that our review of all relevant empirical evidence supports the use of FWTs and we recommend that researchers and practitioners give serious consideration to their adoption

Fuzzy-based Propagation of Prior Knowledge to Improve Large-Scale Image Analysis Pipelines

Many automatically analyzable scientific questions are well-posed and offer a variety of information about the expected outcome a priori. Although often being neglected, this prior knowledge can be systematically exploited to make automated analysis operations sensitive to a desired phenomenon or to evaluate extracted content with respect to this prior knowledge. For instance, the performance of processing operators can be greatly enhanced by a more focused detection strategy and the direct information about the ambiguity inherent in the extracted data. We present a new concept for the estimation and propagation of uncertainty involved in image analysis operators. This allows using simple processing operators that are suitable for analyzing large-scale 3D+t microscopy images without compromising the result quality. On the foundation of fuzzy set theory, we transform available prior knowledge into a mathematical representation and extensively use it enhance the result quality of various processing operators. All presented concepts are illustrated on a typical bioimage analysis pipeline comprised of seed point detection, segmentation, multiview fusion and tracking. Furthermore, the functionality of the proposed approach is validated on a comprehensive simulated 3D+t benchmark data set that mimics embryonic development and on large-scale light-sheet microscopy data of a zebrafish embryo. The general concept introduced in this contribution represents a new approach to efficiently exploit prior knowledge to improve the result quality of image analysis pipelines. Especially, the automated analysis of terabyte-scale microscopy data will benefit from sophisticated and efficient algorithms that enable a quantitative and fast readout. The generality of the concept, however, makes it also applicable to practically any other field with processing strategies that are arranged as linear pipelines.Comment: 39 pages, 12 figure

An intuitionistic approach to scoring DNA sequences against transcription factor binding site motifs

Background: Transcription factors (TFs) control transcription by binding to specific regions of DNA called transcription factor binding sites (TFBSs). The identification of TFBSs is a crucial problem in computational biology and includes the subtask of predicting the location of known TFBS motifs in a given DNA sequence. It has previously been shown that, when scoring matches to known TFBS motifs, interdependencies between positions within a motif should be taken into account. However, this remains a challenging task owing to the fact that sequences similar to those of known TFBSs can occur by chance with a relatively high frequency. Here we present a new method for matching sequences to TFBS motifs based on intuitionistic fuzzy sets (IFS) theory, an approach that has been shown to be particularly appropriate for tackling problems that embody a high degree of uncertainty. Results: We propose SCintuit, a new scoring method for measuring sequence-motif affinity based on IFS theory. Unlike existing methods that consider dependencies between positions, SCintuit is designed to prevent overestimation of less conserved positions of TFBSs. For a given pair of bases, SCintuit is computed not only as a function of their combined probability of occurrence, but also taking into account the individual importance of each single base at its corresponding position. We used SCintuit to identify known TFBSs in DNA sequences. Our method provides excellent results when dealing with both synthetic and real data, outperforming the sensitivity and the specificity of two existing methods in all the experiments we performed. Conclusions: The results show that SCintuit improves the prediction quality for TFs of the existing approaches without compromising sensitivity. In addition, we show how SCintuit can be successfully applied to real research problems. In this study the reliability of the IFS theory for motif discovery tasks is proven

Application of expert systems in project management decision aiding

The feasibility of developing an expert systems-based project management decision aid to enhance the performance of NASA project managers was assessed. The research effort included extensive literature reviews in the areas of project management, project management decision aiding, expert systems technology, and human-computer interface engineering. Literature reviews were augmented by focused interviews with NASA managers. Time estimation for project scheduling was identified as the target activity for decision augmentation, and a design was developed for an Integrated NASA System for Intelligent Time Estimation (INSITE). The proposed INSITE design was judged feasible with a low level of risk. A partial proof-of-concept experiment was performed and was successful. Specific conclusions drawn from the research and analyses are included. The INSITE concept is potentially applicable in any management sphere, commercial or government, where time estimation is required for project scheduling. As project scheduling is a nearly universal management activity, the range of possibilities is considerable. The INSITE concept also holds potential for enhancing other management tasks, especially in areas such as cost estimation, where estimation-by-analogy is already a proven method

Ontologies, Mental Disorders and Prototypes

As it emerged from philosophical analyses and cognitive research, most concepts exhibit typicality effects, and resist to the efforts of defining them in terms of necessary and sufficient conditions. This holds also in the case of many medical concepts. This is a problem for the design of computer science ontologies, since knowledge representation formalisms commonly adopted in this field do not allow for the representation of concepts in terms of typical traits. However, the need of representing concepts in terms of typical traits concerns almost every domain of real world knowledge, including medical domains. In particular, in this article we take into account the domain of mental disorders, starting from the DSM-5 descriptions of some specific mental disorders. On this respect, we favor a hybrid approach to the representation of psychiatric concepts, in which ontology oriented formalisms are combined to a geometric representation of knowledge based on conceptual spaces

Empirical models, rules, and optimization

This paper considers supply decisions by firms in a dynamic setting with adjustment costs and compares the behavior of an optimal control model to that of a rule-based system which relaxes the assumption that agents are explicit optimizers. In our approach, the economic agent uses believably simple rules in coping with complex situations. We estimate rules using an artificially generated sample obtained by running repeated simulations of a dynamic optimal control model of a firm's hiring/firing decisions. We show that (i) agents using heuristics can behave as if they were seeking rationally to maximize their dynamic returns; (ii) the approach requires fewer behavioral assumptions relative to dynamic optimization and the assumptions made are based on economically intuitive theoretical results linking rule adoption to uncertainty; (iii) the approach delineates the domain of applicability of maximization hypotheses and describes the behavior of agents in situations of economic disequilibrium. The approach adopted uses concepts from fuzzy control theory. An agent, instead of optimizing, follows Fuzzy Associative Memory (FAM) rules which, given input and output data, can be estimated and used to approximate any non-linear dynamic process. Empirical results indicate that the fuzzy rule-based system performs extremely well in approximating optimal dynamic behavior in situations with limited noise.Decision-making. ,econometric models ,TMD ,

Employment diversification of farm households and structural change in the rural economy of the New Member States

Changes in the rural labour market, especially the increase of rural non-farm employment are recognised as one dimension of structural change. Labour allocation decisions are driven by economic incentives such as wage differentials, but also non-economic motives may play a decisive role. This paper summarises theoretical insights and presents an integrated conceptual framework reflecting the drivers of employment shifts. Methodologically, the conceptual framework is implemented in fuzzy logic to analyse the household potential to diversify its income activities. The empirical analysis draws on a survey of 1,077 farm households in rural Bulgaria, Hungary, Poland, Romania, and Slovenia. [...] This report is structured as follows: Chapter 2 presents a review of theory, an integrated theoretical framework as well as an overview of current trends of employment diversification. Chapter 3 then introduces fuzzy logic methodology and presents the model that is implemented to assess the non-farm income diversification potential in the survey countries. This is followed by a brief description of the database in Chapter 4. Simulation results are presented in Chapter 5 and Chapter 6. The last chapter summarises the main outcomes and gives policy recommendations. --