Linear and nonlinear filtering in mathematical finance: a review

Copyright @ The Authors 2010This paper presents a review of time series filtering and its applications in mathematical finance. A summary of results of recent empirical studies with market data are presented for yield curve modelling and stochastic volatility modelling. The paper also outlines different approaches to filtering of nonlinear time series

A partially linearized sigma point filter for latent state estimation in nonlinear time series models

A new technique for the latent state estimation of a wide class of nonlinear time series models is proposed. In particular, we develop a partially linearized sigma point filter in which random samples of possible state values are generated at the prediction step using an exact moment matching algorithm and then a linear programming-based procedure is used in the update step of the state estimation. The effectiveness of the new ¯ltering procedure is assessed via a simulation example that deals with a highly nonlinear, multivariate time series representing an interest rate process

Kalman filtering in the presence of State Space Equality Constraints

We discuss two separate techniques for Kalman Filtering in the presence of state space equality constraints. We then prove that despite the lack of similarity in their formulations, under certain conditions, the two methods result in mathematically equivalent constrained estimate structures. We conclude that the potential benefits of using equality constraints in Kalman Filtering often outweigh the computational costs, and as such, equality constraints, when present, should be enforced by way of one of these two methods

Extended Kalman filtering with stochastic nonlinearities and multiple missing measurements

Copyright @ 2012 ElsevierIn this paper, the extended Kalman filtering problem is investigated for a class of nonlinear systems with multiple missing measurements over a finite horizon. Both deterministic and stochastic nonlinearities are included in the system model, where the stochastic nonlinearities are described by statistical means that could reflect the multiplicative stochastic disturbances. The phenomenon of measurement missing occurs in a random way and the missing probability for each sensor is governed by an individual random variable satisfying a certain probability distribution over the interval [0,1]. Such a probability distribution is allowed to be any commonly used distribution over the interval [0,1] with known conditional probability. The aim of the addressed filtering problem is to design a filter such that, in the presence of both the stochastic nonlinearities and multiple missing measurements, there exists an upper bound for the filtering error covariance. Subsequently, such an upper bound is minimized by properly designing the filter gain at each sampling instant. It is shown that the desired filter can be obtained in terms of the solutions to two Riccati-like difference equations that are of a form suitable for recursive computation in online applications. An illustrative example is given to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed filter design scheme.This work was supported in part by the National 973 Project under Grant 2009CB320600, National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grants 61028008, 61134009 and 60825303, the State Key Laboratory of Integrated Automation for the Process Industry (Northeastern University) of China, the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) of the U.K. under Grant GR/S27658/01, the Royal Society of the U.K., and the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation of Germany

Higher order sigma point filter: A new heuristic for nonlinear time series filtering

In this paper we present some new results related to the higher order sigma point filter (HOSPoF), introduced in [1] for filtering nonlinear multivariate time series. This paper makes two distinct contributions. Firstly, we propose a new algorithm to generate a discrete statistical distribution to match exactly a specified mean vector, a specified covariance matrix, the average of specified marginal skewness and the average of specified marginal kurtosis. Both the sigma points and the probability weights are given in closed-form and no numerical optimization is required. Combined with HOSPoF, this random sigma point generation algorithm provides a new method for generating proposal density which propagates the information about higher order moments. A numerical example on nonlinear, multivariate time series involving real financial market data demonstrates the utility of this new algorithm. Secondly, we show that HOSPoF achieves a higher order estimation accuracy as compared to UKF for smooth scalar nonlinearities. We believe that this new filter provides a new and powerful alternative heuristic to existing filtering algorithms and is useful especially in econometrics and in engineering applications